The impact of Trade Tensions on Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP Trade Insights: Issue No. 24)

The impact of Trade Tensions on Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP Trade Insights: Issue No. 24)

Date: 
Friday, February 1, 2019
Type: 
Public information and advocacy materials
Abstract

• Tariff increases by the United States in 2018 have focused mainly but not solely on China.
• Although the trade war has been so far essentially bilateral, it has made the international trade environment less predictable and created significant risks and uncertainties.
• The current trade war is having detrimental impacts globally. Global GDP could fall by nearly $150 billion with tariffs already implemented.
• In the Asia-Pacific region, the adverse impacts on China could drive the regional GDP down by $43 billion. The adverse impacts could more than double in the worst-case scenario considered.
• While escalating trade war can put almost 9 million people out of work in the region, regional integration can add 12.5 million new jobs.
• Asia and the Pacific can weather the escalating trade war, if negotiation and implementation of regional trade integration initiatives are accelerated.
• As trade tensions and regional integration lead to resource reallocation, both within and across borders, complementary policies will, more than ever, become necessary. These should include policies to simplify and digitalize trade and improve the business environment, but also social protection, labour and education policies to support people negatively affected by changing trade patterns.

Download: 

Trade Insight 24++_08.07.19Download