Maritime Policy Planning Model (MPPM): Regional Shipping and Port Development Strategies Under a Changing Maritime Environment

Maritime Policy Planning Model (MPPM): Regional Shipping and Port Development Strategies Under a Changing Maritime Environment

Date: 
Monday, January 1, 2001
Abstract

This study is based on the application of the Maritime Policy Planning Models (MPPM) developed and maintained by the Transport and Tourism Division of UNESCAP. Its objective is to provide a planning context for decisions facing governments, shipping lines and port authorities in the UNESCAP region. It does this by providing detailed, quantified and internally consistent forecasts of the structure of the maritime container transport system serving the ESCAP region through to the year 2011. These forecasts cover three broad areas: the volume and direction of container flows, the shape of the shipping network, and the port facilities required to service the trades. There are two introductory Chapters 1 and 2 which discusses some of the major changes that have occurred in the container shipping environment over the last decade. Chapter 3 is concerned with the economic growth context within which the container forecasts are set, and the magnitude of the increase in container volumes that this economic growth will bring. Chapters 4 is devoted to discussion of the model’s forecasts on structural changes in trade patterns. In Chapter 5, two different possible directions of evolution of the liner shipping system are investigated under two different scenarios, known throughout this study as the ‘Base Case’ Scenario and the ‘Big Ships’ Scenario. Chapter 6 discusses the implications of these changes for fleet requirements. Chapter 7 examines the implications of both changes in trade and the development of the shipping network for the volume of containers that will need to be handled in the ports of the region. In Chapter 8, the report focuses specifically on those ports that will play a key transshipment role of the coming decade, discussing both the total forecast volumes and the markets that they are likely to serve. In Chapter 9, estimates are provided of the port facilities that will be required to meet the projected container handling demand, and the investment implications of these requirements. The report rounds off with a brief look at some policy implications of the forecasts in Chapter 10.

Download: 

pub_2153Download