2018/2019 El Niño Asia-Pacific Impact Outlook for December 2018 to February 2019

2018/2019 El Niño Asia-Pacific Impact Outlook for December 2018 to February 2019

Date: 
Thursday, December 6, 2018
Type: 
Public information and advocacy materials
Abstract

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is like tango, it takes two — the ocean and the atmosphere — to complete. This year, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the atmosphere has not yet responded. Therefore, only “ENSO-neutral” conditions have prevailed in the region so far.

Although the stage is set for the tango, ENSO may or may not materialize, or just slightly influence some parts of the region.

This situation requires policymakers and disaster managers to closely monitor its evolution. And, considering that El Niño is not the only factor causing climate-related disasters in the region, it is advisable to pay close attention to short and medium-range weather forecasts, as well as the already prevailing conditions that could make societies susceptible to the consequences resulting from the slightest deviations in rainfall and temperature as compared with what is normally expected.

This joint ESCAP/RIMES advisory assesses the potential repercussions of the present situation, both, in terms of the climate and its possible societal impacts. It is intended to inform the efforts of Governments, development and humanitarian agencies to understand the risks and to mitigate the potential impacts.

Download: 

ESCAP-RIMES El Niño Advisory_6 DecemberDownload