Workshop on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction for South-East Asia
This workshop will gather climate scientists, forecasters from National Hydrometeorological Services (NHMSs), and user agencies (e.g. humanitarian and development agencies) to enhance capacities to develop subseasonal to seasonal forecasts (S2S), promote uptake by operational forecasting centres and applications of S2S for disaster risk reduction and other sectors. The ASEAN Dynamic Risk Assessment Guidelines and Experiences (ADAGE) (https://sites.google.com/view/adage-approach) will be introduced.
Weather and climate-sensitive activities in agriculture, water, disaster risk reduction and health take place in the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) range, that is the timescale that falls between the 2-week (medium-range) and 3-month (seasonal periods). Until recently, this time scale has been less understood compared to medium-range and seasonal prediction. Recent efforts by the scientific community has resulted in better understanding and improved forecast skill scores on this timescale.
The improved understanding on the subseasonal timescale has numerous potential benefits to society. For example, the seasonal outlook for June to Sept 2015 provided a warning of a significantly-drier-than- normal summer monsoon season on the southern ASEAN region due to the El Niño, thereby increasing the likelihood of a prolonged and severe haze episode in the region. However, there was no easily accessible information then on the intra-seasonal (week-to-week) variability of the wind and rainfall outlook for the region. S2S forecasts could contribute to more refined risk assessments of such events in the future.
The applications of S2S can potentially help address the cumulative impacts of slow-onset disasters which are on the rise in Asia and the Pacific. Exacerbated by climate change, slow-onset disasters come at an enormous cost to economies and societies—pushing people back to poverty, exacerbating inequality and slowing progress towards sustainable development.
This activity is being organized by the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Centre (ASMC), International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University, ESCAP, Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES), and the S2S Prediction Project. It aligns with the ASEAN-UN Joint Strategic Plan of Action on Disaster Management for which ESCAP is the UN agency lead for the priority programme on risk awareness and assessment. It also contributes to ESCAP’s Asia-Pacific Disaster Resilience Network (APDRN). One of the pillars of APDRN is the regional multi-hazard early warning which focuses on building resilience to slow-onset disasters primarily by linking scientific to policy actions.