UNESCAP: REGION TO SUSTAIN GROWTH AMIDST UNCERTAINTY

Bangkok (United Nations Information Services) -- Amidst the current uncertain times, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific - UNESCAP -released today the most up-to-date assessment of the region's economic and social state of affairs.

Presenting the Bulletin on Asia-Pacific Perspectives, 2002/03, UNESCAP Executive Secretary Mr Kim Hak-Su said "There is room for optimism amidst the current gloom."

"The challenges facing UNESCAP developing countries are to maintain the momentum of structural reform, commitment to trade liberalization, and take measures to enhance productivity and competitiveness. They must also be alive to the looming danger of deflation," said Mr. Kim.

The UNESCAP region is expected to perform well in 2002, he said.

• The improved growth performance has been based partly on domestic factors and the stimulus provided by intra-regional trade.
• Prospects for 2003 are that growth will be sustained with some marginal improvement over 2002.

"There are nevertheless some risks and challenges ahead," said Mr. Raj Kumar, UNESCAP expert.

"In the short-term, prolonged military action in Iraq may lead to disruptions in the energy and financial markets; there is also the ever-present danger of major terrorist outrages within or outside the region," said Mr. Kumar. "Also in the short-term, expect faltering momentum of growth in the US and EU - despite recent interest rate cuts - and the anemic Japanese economy. The US, EU and Japan account for around one half of exports from UNESCAP developing countries. Over the medium-term, in terms of domestic policies there are limits beyond which fiscal and monetary stimulus should not be taken."

The momentum of intra-regional trade could also slow down, said the Bulletin.

The 2002/03 Bulletin which was developed by a number of regional experts also deals with social and governance issues, such as social protection, unemployment and a perspective on good governance.

Estimates of GDP growth2002-2003 and GDP growth of selected ESCAP economies 2002-2003

Summary of the Bulletin on Asia-Pacific Perspectives 2002/03

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