Population estimates are a key element in the estimation of many statistical indicators (including most of the MDG indicators) for three distinct reasons. First, a large number of statistical indicators, especially in developing countries, are derived from household surveys which make use of population estimates for designing the sample and for expanding sample estimates to the universe. Second, most indicators are presented as rates, or proportions, or in per capita terms where population estimates are used as denominator of each specific indicator. Third, population data are applied as weights for combining country values into regional or global estimates. Different statistical indicators call for disaggregated population figures according to various age-sex groups.

Unfortunately there are often conflicting population estimates for a single country both at the national and international levels. The United Nations Population Division (UNPD) is responsible for the production of the UN official population estimates and projections. At the international level, however, some international agencies (like the World Bank) produce their own population estimates to generate derived statistical indicators, including some MDG indicators which feed into the official MDG database.

Inconsistencies between UNPD and the World Bank population estimates are largely due to differences in data sources and timing of updates (and in some minor cases also definitions). In particular, UNPD population estimates and projections are updated only every two years, often using not the most recent data available in the countries. In fact, UNPD does not collect national data and relies on the basic data collected by the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD).

Moreover, population figures produced at the national level often differ substantially from those published by the UNPD. Sometimes, inconsistent estimates may even exist within each country (e.g. between the NSO and line Ministries) and different population denominators may be used for different policy areas.

In some cases these differences between national and international data are unavoidable. Country data may be of poor quality or there may be multiple data sources which provide conflicting population figures. Moreover, when models are applied at the national level to produce population estimates, the methodology and definitions used may be inconsistent with those applied by UNPD. On the other hand, methodology and data used by UNPD to produce population estimates and projections are not generally shared with the countries. There is no systematic consultation process with the NSOs to clarify possible divergence in the data.

Though often neglected, the use of different population figures is one of the main reasons of the existing inconsistencies in the values of the statistical indicators at the national and international levels. As national and international agencies rely on different population estimates for obtaining derived indicators, these differences are often reflected in available indicators in other areas. The size of these inconsistencies varies, of course, depending on whether the different estimates are used as denominators or weights of the statistical indicators. Inconsistencies are larger when the denominator's value differs, as any bias in its measurement translates directly into a bias of a similar magnitude for the statistical indicator.

An additional problem concerns UNPD policy of data revisions. Recently UNPD released the latest population data in the 2006 version of the World Population Prospects (WPP2006). The new figures revise sometimes substantially previously released estimates in terms not only of indicators levels, but also trends. For the year 2005, 21 developing countries out of 58 in the ESCAP region (i.e. 36% of them) show discrepancies higher than 2% with respect to previous figures; and 13 countries (22%) show discrepancies higher than 5%. In particular, the difference between WPP2004 and WPP2006 estimates is around 16% for Afghanistan ; 12% for Timor-Leste, 8% for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and 7% for Bhutan. These large differences in some cases progressively disappear going back to 1990; while in other cases remain more or less constant over the period. Unfortunately, the reasons behind the revisions are not widely known to the users and have not been openly discussed with the concerned countries.

Obviously, these changes may have a major impact on levels and trends of many national indicators for which population is used as denominator. Revised population values are also going to affect the relative weights used in compiling the regional or global aggregates. In the case of MDG indicators, this revision might also lead to changes in the assessments of whether targets will be achieved by 2015.

This new set of population estimates calls for the adoption of an appropriate and synchronized revision policy by all the concerned international agencies. All derived indicators should be revised backward whenever a population value is changed. Any country value that has been imputed might also need to be revised. This revision should be adopted preferably during the same time period by all concerned agencies. All the agencies involved in MDG data production, for example, should adopt a similar approach in updating the MDG indicators for which they are responsible for.

At its last meeting last September, the Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities, which convenes all the international agencies active in the statistical field, agreed to establish a task team with the following tasks: 1) review and recommend ways to improve the consultation with countries in the process of producing national estimates; 2) indicate to agencies how to factor in changes in the population figures from one revision to the next; and 3) discuss ways to address the concern that there are no internationally agreed standards for annual population statistics. ESCAP, which prepared a background document discussed by the Committee, will be part of the new task team, together with the World Bank, UIS, UNFPA, UNSD, ADB, ECE, ECA, and WHO. The task team will review the problems and report its recommendations to the CCSA at its eleventh session, in February 2008.

At the September 2005 World Summit, world leaders committed themselves to achieving four additional targets to the ones included in the Millennium Declaration. They are:

In this edition of the Newsletter we discuss rationale, methodology, data sources and data availability of the new indicators for monitoring the new target on Reproductive Health selected by the Interagency Expert Group on MDG indicators.

For many developing countries rapid population growth has traditionally been one of the main obstacles in achieving better living standards and socio-economic progress. The new target on reproductive health ("Achieve universal access to reproductive health by 2015") fills a major gap in the current MDG framework, introducing the responsibility of governments to ensure that people are free to decide if, when and how to reproduce. Governments therefore, especially in developing countries, should ensure that all couples are able to prevent pregnancies that are too early, too closely spaced, too late or too many. Critical to achieve this target is, on one hand, the access to safe, effective and affordable methods of fertility regulation and, on the other, the access to appropriate health-care services that enable women to go safely through pregnancy and childbirth, thus, providing couples with the best chances of having a healthy child.

The indicators selected to monitor the new target on reproductive health are the following:

• Adolescent birth rate (age-specific fertility rate of women 15-19 years old);
• Antenatal care coverage (at least one visit and at least four visits);
• Unmet need for family planning.

The objective of controlling fertility behaviour and avoiding unwanted pregnancies is especially important for teenagers. In many developing countries it is common practice for women to get married and start their reproductive life very early, putting at risk their life and the life of their infant. In order to monitor responsible and healthy reproductive behaviour among teenagers, the IAEG selected the age-specific fertility rate of women 15-19 years old as a proxy of the adolescent birth rate. This indicator is compiled by the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) as part of their population estimates and projections and is available for a large number of countries. One disadvantage of using the age-specific fertility rate 15-19 is that the indicator covers a wide age range, including ages 18 and 19, for whom reproduction does not pose particular health risks and at which women may be considered to have reached adulthood.

The access to antenatal care indicator verifies the ability of the health system to reach pregnant women at risk and the extent of compliance with antenatal care protocols. It has two components, namely at least one visit to a specialized health specialist and at least four visits. The former indicator measures whether pregnant women have any contact at all with the health system; the latter captures whether pregnant women benefit from a broader range of interventions conforming to the WHO standards of adequate antenatal care. Main data sources are the Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys. UNICEF and WHO will be jointly responsible for the compilation of this indicator.

The indicator Unmet need for family planning intends to measure the proportion of women currently married or in union who are fecund and desire to either terminate or postpone childbearing although they are not currently using a contraceptive method. Comparable data come mainly from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), UNDP and UNFPA will be jointly responsible for this indicator. There are only a limited number of countries that have two data points for unmet needs. Data coverage varies widely by region: it is relatively good for Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, whereas it is less satisfactory in Northern Africa and in the Asia-Pacific region.

On October 8 The Millennium Development Goals: Progress in Asia and the Pacific 2007 was simultaneously launched at the ADB Headquarters in Manila, Philippines and at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand in Bangkok. This report, which describes the region's progress in meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), is a joint publication by UNESCAP, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). This tripartite initiative underscores a united vision on the MDGs amongst international agencies in the Asia and the Pacific region.

MDGs: Progress in Asia and the Pacific 2007 is the fourth in a series of regional MDGs reports. The report highlights the importance of making a critical assessment of the MDGs half way towards the 2015 target year. The report states that the region is well on track and ahead of its peers in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa to reduce extreme poverty by half, attain universal education, and achieve gender parity in education by the target year.

The report also tracks progress by sub-regions within Asia and the Pacific, pointing out to an uneven progress between and within countries, with many countries falling behind in certain MDGs. The region's greatest challenges lie in addressing the issues of child mortality, child malnutrition, improving maternal health and providing safe drinking water and improved sanitation facilities.

Asia and the Pacific accounts for about three quarters of the world's rural population that lives without access to improved sanitation facilities such as household toilets or latrines connected to piped sewerage systems, or ventilated improved pit latrines. This is a major cause for infections and disease, the report points out. Also, 65 per cent of the world's underweight children live in the Asia and the Pacific region, most of them in South Asia where approximately one in every four children under the age of five is malnourished - a level similar to that of Sub-Saharan Africa.

The region is moving slowly in reducing child mortality since more than 40 per cent of all children who die before reaching five years of age, die in this region. Every year, six out of every 100 children born do not live to see their fifth birthday, a rate almost double that of Latin American and the Caribbean. The most serious problem is that besides South-East Asia, which is on track to achieve this target, all other sub-regions in Asia and the Pacific are moving slowly forward and if no significant change is achieved, they would miss the target of reducing child mortality by two-thirds.

The report also warns that environmental pressures arising from land degradation, poor water management and rising pollution in urban areas contributing to climate change, among other factors, could push more people into poverty and deprivation.

While many countries in the region have resources to speed up and meet the MDGs, the poorest states do not have funds to meet all their investment needs. Hence the call to build a global partnership for development, to meet the investment gaps through channelling more and better targeted funds to those areas, sub-sectors and people, who are in need. Another way to meet the MDGs for poor countries, the report says, is to provide them with access to developed markets, fair trade and support them with technical cooperation among developing countries in the region.

Half-way towards the MDGs target date of 2015, the Asia and the Pacific region has an historic opportunity to change the lives of millions living in abject deprivation. It is now that we need to adopt inclusive strategies to ensure that benefits of growth are shared equitably as to extend the benefits of rapid economic and social development across all regions and countries, making sure that no one is left behind.

The Third Group Training Course in Modules on Fundamental Official Statistics commenced in Chiba, Japan, on 1 October 2007. This course is jointly organised by the Statistical Institute for Asia and the Pacific (SIAP) and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). 33 participants from 27 countries are attending the six months long course. This course is specifically designed to train junior level statisticians. The course comprises three modules: Statistical and Survey Methods (1 Oct - 19 Nov 2007); National Accounts and Economic Statistics (20 Nov 2007 - 8 Jan 2008); Demographic and Social Statistics (9 Jan -14 Mar 2008)

The first module covers the main methodologies for the production of Official statistics. Survey methodology and sample designs are the main components of the module. Sufficient time has also been allocated to teach statistical methods and to perform practical exercises including statistical computing and presentation. Much emphasis has been given to train the participants as 'training of trainers', so that they may teach others what they learn upon returning to their home countries.

The second module focuses on the concepts and compilation of National accounts and economic statistics. The SNA 1993 framework will be based for the production of national accounting statistics. Other macro economic and related statistics such as business cycles and short term economic indicators as well as the International Comparison Programme and price statistics are also covered in this module.

The third module deals with the demographic and social statistics frameworks. This module also includes poverty and MDG related statistics. A special survey component comprises an important part of the module as well. It focuses on the survey designs for Household Income and Expenditure Surveys, Demographic and Health Surveys and other household-based surveys such as Labour force, Informal sector, Time use and Post enumeration surveys.

From the beginning of the course participants are given the opportunity to gain experience on conducting a sample survey, including all the stages from design to data dissemination. Presentation of the survey results is an exciting event for all the participants in which they benefit from a review of all the topics encompassed by the training. An action plan for imparting the knowledge they gained from the course to their colleagues is prepared and presented to SIAP by the participants and discussed with the faculty members.

International Conference on the Millennium Development Goals Statistics (ICMDGS), Manila, 1-3 October 2007

From October 1-3, 2007, the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) of the Philippines, in collaboration with various international organizations, hosted the 2007 International Conference on the Millennium Development Goals Statistics (ICMDGS) in Manila, Philippines. The conference aimed to revisit the recommendations and discussion in the Workshop on Statistics for Monitoring the Achievement of the MDGs in Asia and the Pacific that was organized by the UNESCAP and ADB in Bangkok in July-August 2006. The October conference brought together Heads of National Statistical Offices, academics as well as representatives of international organizations, such as UNESCAP, UNSD, ADB, UNICEF, and UNDP to discuss pertinent issues related to monitoring MDG indicators. Participation was primarily from the Asia-Pacific region, although there were also some participants from Europe, Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean.

The conference agenda covered a broad range of topics. It was envisioned to serve as a forum for sharing good practices and methodologies adopted at the national and international levels on data generation and compilation; addressing data gaps; data utilization and analysis; strengthening statistical capacity to improve availability; and data dissemination. Among other things, it included presentations on methods for compiling MDG indicators, addressing data gaps, disseminating MDG indicator information, as well as mid-term country MDG progress reports.

United Nations Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Bangkok, 15-19 October 2007

UNESCAP and the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) jointly organized the Workshop on Census Cartography and Management in Bangkok, attended by 22 participants from 17 countries. The Workshop presented an overview of geographical information systems (GIS) fundamentals and census geography concepts, including geo-coding systems, and critical links between census mapping and disaster management. Discussions and presentations focused on practical applications to data collection and on GIS-based data analysis and dissemination. Participants had hands-on exercises with leading GIS software and shared experiences and practices on census mapping with GIS.

Workshop participants recognized the advantages of using contemporary GIS technology in all phases of population and housing censuses. They recommended its implementation in all censuses of the 2010 round, given national circumstances. At the conclusion, participants further requested that ESCAP and UNSD organize a "training of trainers" course in GIS.

The ASEAN Secretariat in collaboration with the IMF and the ASEAN-US Facility organized the Inception Workshop on the Establishment of the ASEAN Forum on the System of National Accounts (SNA) in Bangkok from 17 - 19 October 2007. The objectives of the workshop were to orient the participants with the 1993 SNA update framework, assess the current status and major issues and to define future direction towards establishing a forum for national accounts compilers. The forum participants benefited from sharing experiences and exchanging ideas on the latest developments on SNA framework and ways to improve technical cooperation.

This week long course was organised with input from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China and the Statistical Division of the United Nations. 22 participants from 21 countries attended this course. This course was designed for middle-level managers of national statistical agencies in Asia and the Pacific, who develop departmental or divisional plans, set goals and deadlines, develop procedures to improve the quality of statistics and statistical services and direct programme activities. The theme of this third regional course/workshop was "Coordination of Official Statistics and Data Quality Issues".

The workshop programme included presentations on Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics, the National Coordination of Statistical Agencies within Countries (Principle 8), Coordination in the Use of Statistical Concepts, Classifications and Methods at both the National and Sub-national levels (Principle 9), Database as a tool for coordinating statistical activities. These were complemented with country presentations by the participants.

The course was directed by Mr M Q Hasan, UNSIAP faculty member. Mr Frederick W.H. Ho, former Commissioner for Census and Statistics of the Government of Hong Kong acted as a resource person. Two former participants of SIAP training, namely, Ms Gan Jing of Computer Centre and Ms An Xin Li of Social Science and Technology Statistics Department of NBS acted as teaching assistants. Mr Shuichi Watanabe, Deputy Director of UNSIAP, offered concluding remarks on the workshop. All local logistics were provided and arranged by Mr Du Weiqun, Director General and Ms Yue Renfeng, Consultant of the Department of International Cooperation, National Bureau of Statistics China.

Mr Andres Montes, Statistician, Statistics Development Section:

New York, United States of America, 24-28 September 2007 : To represent UNESCAP Statistics Division at the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on the Use of Censuses and Surveys to Measure International Migration. Mr Montes participated in the review of the technical report on the use of population censuses and sample surveys to measure international migration and discussed the scope and outline of the handbook on international migration statistics to be produced by the United Nation Statistics Division (UNSD). The technical report and the handbook on international migration statistics to be produced by early 2008 should prove useful to improve data quality as well as data dissemination in preparation for the 2010 round of censuses in the Asia-Pacific region.

Mr Christian Stoff, Associate Statistician, Statistical Information Services Section, and
Ms Yukhontorn Leksawangwong, Senior Staff Assistant of Statistics Division:

Manila, Philippines, 1-3 October 2007 : To represent the Statistics Division at the International Conference for Millennium Development Goals (MDG). Ms Leksawangwong and Mr Stoff participated in the conference and the final workshop to identify priority areas of concern in the monitoring and tracking of MDG indicators for countries as well as international agencies.

Ms Haishan Fu, Chief, Statistics Development Section, and
Mr Andres Montes, Statistician, Statistics Development Section:

Manila, Philippines, 8-9 October 2007 : To launch the MDG report'Millennium Development Goals: Progress in Asia and the Pacific 2007' at the conference on 'Inclusive Growth and poverty Reduction in the New Asia and Pacific'. Ms Fu and Mr Montes participated at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) sponsored conference on 'Inclusive Growth and poverty Reduction in the New Asia and Pacific' where the launch of the 2007 MDG Progress Report took place. ADB and UNESCAP along with UNDP, agreed on the importance of continuing their tripartite initiative to present a united voice amongst international agencies in the Asia-Pacific region. The launch received ample coverage by local and international media.

Kyoto, Japan, 25-26 October 2007: To represent UNESCAP at the 2nd Kyoto International Seminar on "Sustainable Growth in the Asia-Pacific region, jointly organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan (MOFA) and the Kyoto University.

Main objectives of the conference was to discuss a wide range of issues related to sustainable growth in the Asia-Pacific region and risk management strategies to mitigate the threats to development and regional cooperation. The participants also discussed the design and feasibility of the project "Economic information sharing mechanism of the Asia-Pacific (EiSMAP)", supported by the MOFA.

Mr Gennari delivered a presentation on the major international initiatives on the measurement of sustainable development. Technical guidelines were also provided for future developments of the EiSMAP project.

Astana, Kazakhstan, 15 - 19 October 2007: Together with Mr Petteri Baer, UNECE regional adviser on statistics and Mr Heinrich Bruengger, Director of UNECE Statistics Division, conducted a global assessment of the national statistical system of Kazakhstan.

Male, Maldives, 5 - 12 September 2007: Provided advisory services to the Statistics Division, Ministry of Planning and National Development on the survey design of their 2007 Economic Survey.

Bangkok, Thailand, 2-3 September 2007: Served as resource person on data quality framework for business surveys for the Country Course on Industrial Statistics which was co-organized by the National Statistical Office of Thailand and the East Asia Expert Meeting on Industrial Statistics, a capacity building project of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan.

• Ms D.B.P.S. Vidyaratne, Director General, Department of Census and Statistics, Colombo, Sri Lanka
• Ms Bideriya Tserenkhand, Director, Data Processing and Technology Department, NSO Mongolia
• Mr Omar Norman, Chief, Policies and Programmes, UNDP Colombo, Sri Lanka

The list of future events is provided for coordination purposes only. The list is incomplete and events, dates and venues may change. Please do not publish or disseminate the list without confirming the latest information with the Statistics Division or SIAP, as appropriate. Note that not all meetings are intended for all countries.

The following list of future events has been compiled, for coordination purposes only, on the basis of information available to the Statistics Division as of 31 October 2007. Readers are strongly advised to verify the correctness with the indicated organizers. Events, dates and venues may change. Please do not republish or disseminate the list.