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Statistical Newsletter - No. 111, October 1998
Contents
Graduate programmes in development studies and advisory services at the Institute of Social Studies, and the Institute of Social Studies Advisory Services

The Institute of Social Studies (ISS), located in the Hague, Netherlands,  is an international post-graduate school of policy-oriented, social science teaching and research whose diverse activities include teaching, interdisciplinary research and advisory work in the field of development studies. Founded by the universities of the Netherlands in 1952, the Institute is one of Europe's leading centres of higher education and research in development studies. Over 8000 students from more than 160 countries have participated in the Institute's programmes.

The Institute's linkages are world-wide. It is a member of the European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes and a member of international associations such as the Society for International Development. The ISS is also a member of the Federation for International Education in the Netherlands (FION). ISS participates in the Centre for Resource Studies for Development (CERES), the national, inter-university research school for development studies recognized by the Royal Netherlands Academy of Sciences.

The Institute offers extensive opportunities for graduate studies at diploma, master's and doctorate levels. All courses are taught in English by an international academic staff. The ISS currently has a total of 15 standard Teaching Programmes, ranging from short-term courses of 8 weeks to 15 months for the Master of Arts, 18 months for the MPhil and 4 years for the PhD.

These programmes have in common a policy orientation to the study of development problems and training, with most courses focussing on various aspects of socio-economic planning and policy alternatives. Programmes are intended primarily for participants who have had practical and professional experience in public, private, or non-governmental organizations, and are also aimed at academics employed at universities, research institutes, and other institutes of higher learning. A participant's background will normally, though not exclusively, lie in the social sciences, also drawing people from agronomy, law, engineering, journalism and other areas. Although the Institute's participants come from all parts of the world, the majority are selected from developing countries.

For information on specific matters (the Institute in general, admission policy, research, etc.) interested people may find the right e-mail addresses at the URL http://www.iss.nl/staff/staflist.htm. Generic enquiries can be sent to the following address:

Institute of Social Studies
P.O. Box 29776
2502 LT The Hague
The Netherlands
Tel. no.  +31 70 426 0460
Fax no +31 70 426 0799
E-mail student.office@iss.nl
Telex  31491 ISS NL
Cables SOCINST

The Institute is not only an academic institution but also an advisory services provider. The steady growth in the demand for advisory services resulted in the decision, taken by the Institute in 1980, to establish the Institute of Social Studies Advisory Service (ISSAS) as a new focal point for further promoting advisory work.

Since becoming operational ISSAS has completed more than 400 assignments in some 60 countries for 35 different clients that have included governments, bilateral and multilateral donor agencies and private and non-governmental organizations, with the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs featuring as the single most important client. These assignments have ranged from multi-year projects requiring resident field staff and advisers to short project formulation and evaluation missions. Projects have also included contract research assignments, the organization of conferences and policy workshops, and contract teaching assignments in both the Netherlands and overseas.

Further information about the Institute's advisory services can be obtained at the Institute's Web site, at the following URL:
http://www.iss.nl/advisory/intro5.htm.

The contact person for information on advisory activities and services is
The Deputy Director, ISSAS
Institute of Social Studies
P.O.Box 29776
2502 LT The Hague
The Netherlands

Second International Conference on Establishment Surveys

The first International Conference on Establishment Surveys (ICES) was held in Buffalo, New York, in 1993, and convened more than 400 experts in the area of surveys of businesses, farms, and institutions. The monograph papers from this conference were published by J. Wiley in 1995 in a volume entitled Business Survey Methods, edited by B. Cox et al. This first conference set the stage by formally documenting the state of the art at that time.

A second conference, ICES-II, is planned for June, 2000, in Buffalo. Since the first ICES, many new techniques have been implemented by practitioners around the globe.

With the new millennium upon us, it is time for a forward look at methods for surveying businesses, farms, and institutions. Workshops and software demonstrations are planned  in addition to several invited as well as contributed sessions.

The ideal invited session will bring together both theory and practice on any of the topics listed below. The focus  will be on surveys of establishments, with evident links to the subject. In addition to proposals addressing the new millennium theme, the committee will give full consideration to all business survey related proposals. A hardcover, un-edited, proceedings volume of the invited papers will be produced after the conference.

List of topics

  • Registers and Frames: profiling, classification, maintenance, evaluation, demographics of enterprises, coping with frame errors;
  • Survey Design and Sampling: respondent burden, panel surveys, longitudinal surveys, area sampling, robustness over time, sample rotation, multi-phase sampling, coordinating samples between surveys;
  • Data collection: response rates, costs, electronic data reporting, questionnaire design, cognitive aspects, measurement errors, re-interview/evaluation;
  • Data processing: editing, macro editing, imputation, data warehousing, cost benefit analyses, automated systems;
  • Estimation: small area methods, Bayesian methods, mass imputation, variance estimation, outliers;
  • Dissemination: presentation, disclosure control, on site facilities for micro-data research, remote access, web publishing, technology, public use files, data sharing, output quality indicators;
  • Sector Specific Issues: surveys of health-care facilities, nursing homes, hospitals, schools and correctional and other institutions, agriculture surveys, education surveys, production of price indexes;
  • Cross cutting issues: data warehousing, survey integration, derived products, meta analysis, administrative data use, time series methods, impact of deregulated industries, international comparisons, data quality measurement and evaluation;

Further information can be obtained either by contacting:

Mr. Geoff Lee
Australian Bureau of Statistics
Methodology Division
P.O. Box 10
Belconnen, ACT 2616,
AUSTRALIA
e-mail: geoff.lee@abs.gov.au
Tel. no. +61 2 6252 7163 (voice)
Fax. no. +61 2 6252 8008 (FAX)

or at the Web site http://www.eia.doe.gov/ices2/ where addresses of other contact persons and the organizing committee can be found.

Revision of the World Population Estimates and Projections
The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs has issued the 1998 Revision of the official United Nations population estimates and projections.

From the 1998 Revision of the World Population Estimates and Projections:

These population estimates and projections provide the standard and consistent set of population figures that are used throughout the United Nations system as the basis for activities requiring population information.

Below are some of the highlights of the new world population estimates and projections.

  • World population currently stands at 5.9 billion persons and is growing at 1.33 per cent per year, or an annual net addition of 78 million people. World population in the mid 21st century is expected to be in the range of 7.3 to 10.7 billion. The medium-fertility projection, which is usually considered as "most likely", indicates that world population will reach 8.9 billion in 2050.
  • The world population is expected to reach the 6 billion mark in 1999. From 1804, when the world passed the 1 billion mark, it took 123 years to reach 2 billion people in 1927, 33 years to attain 3 billion in 1960, 14 years to reach 4 billion in 1974, 13 years to attain 5 billion in 1987 and 12 years to reach 6 billion in 1999.
  • The global average fertility level now stands at 2.7 births per woman; in contrast, in the early l950s, the average number was 5 births per woman. Fertility is now declining in all regions of the world. For example, during the last 25 years, the number of children per couple has fallen from 6.6 to 5.l in Africa, from 5.1 to 2.6 in Asia, and from 5.0 to 2.7 in Latin America and the Caribbean.
  • The 1998 Revision demonstrates a devastating mortality toll from HIV/AIDS. For instance, in the 29 hardest-hit African countries, the average life expectancy at birth is currently 7 years less than it would have been in the absence of AIDS. The highest prevalence of HIV in the world is currently in Botswana, where one of every 4 adults is infected. Life expectancy at birth in Botswana is anticipated to fall from 61 years in 1990-1995 to 41 years by 2000-2005. Based on the United Nations projections, Botswana's population by 2025 may be 23 per cent smaller than it would have been in the absence of AIDS. Nevertheless, because fertility is high, the population of Botswana is still expected to nearly double between 1995 and 2050.
  • The results from the 1998 Revision shed new light on the global population ageing processes. For the first time, the numbers of octogenarians, nonagenarians and centenarians are estimated and projected for all countries of the world. In 1998, 66 million persons in the world were aged 80 or over, that is about 1 of every 100 persons. This number is expected to increase almost 6 fold by 2050 to reach 370 million persons. In addition, in 1998, around 135 thousand persons in the world are estimated to be aged 100 or over. The number of centenarians is projected to increase 16-fold by 2050 to reach 2.2 million persons.

Figures at regional and national level are also provided, therefore a particular look at figures for Asian and Pacific countries can provide long trends in population size and structure as far as ESCAP member countries are concerned.

More information about this and other publications is available at the URL http://www.undp.org/popin/

Need advice on software on population?

Population Software Notes is a newsletter of the Computer Software and Support for Population Activities project of the United Nations Statistics Division, funded by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).

We received the latest issues, numbers 8-9. These introduce a wide set of software products in the field of population software. Products presented include some software for Geographical Information Systems (GIS) (like PopMap for Windows 3.1, Mapscan for Windows, IMPS for Windows), the UNFPA 1998 Web site contents CD-ROM edition, and many others. The newsletters deal also with recent trends in development of software for population, some examples of applications of GIS for statistical analysis, and other interesting  information.

Particularly useful is an inventory of software for population activities, which lists different software products by topic (census and survey data processing, epidemiology and public health data processing, etc) and provides information such as product name, description, operating system, status and a contact person/institution/company.

A Selected References section closes the newsletter with further reference to existing publications and other sources for those interested in this field. In general, e-mail and Web site addresses are provided, users can find what they need by themselves if they have an Internet connection.

To get their copy, readers who can access the Internet can browse the following Web site (URL http://www.undp.org/popin/softproj/ or http://www.un.org/Depts/unsd/softproj/index.htm) and download the Acrobat (pdf extension, 2.07 Mbytes) file edition of the newsletter. Acrobat reader is freely downloadable too, therefore readers can produce their own copy of the newsletter using their printer. For those who do not have access to the Internet the contact address for a copy of the newsletter is

Project Co-ordinator
Computer Software and Support
for Population Activities, INT/96/P74
United Nations Statistics Division
2 UN Plaza, Room DC2-1526
New York, NY 10017, USA.
Fax no. 1 (212) 963-4116
E-mail softproj_unsd@un.org

IMPS and other training news from the U.S. Bureau of the Census

IMPS developments

IMPS, the widely known software package for processing census operations, will merge with the Integrated System for Survey Analysis (ISSA) to result in a Windows-based package named IMSA. The new package will implement those typical point-and-click features that make Windows applications more friendly to users. Of course advanced users will still be able to interact with the software to generate or modify the code when more sophisticated applications are needed.

This news is particularly important for the ESCAP region as many countries have adopted IMPS to process their operations for the next round of population censuses.

1999 Summer Workshops

Five workshops are being organized by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in Washington, D.C. The series of courses begins in May and ends in October. The next summer session will offer:

  1. Data Dissemination 2000: Building an Integrated System, 17 May - 4 June 1999, (3 weeks, $2,850)
  2. Sampling and Statistical Methods, 7 June - 2 July 1999, (4 weeks, $3,800)
  3. Analysis and Evaluation of Gender Statistics, 6 July - 23 July 1999, (3 weeks, $2,850)
  4. Geographic Information Systems, 26 July - 3 September 1999, (6 weeks, $6,800)
  5. Integrated Microcomputer Processing System (IMPS), 7 September - 1 October 1999, (4 weeks, $3,800)

Workshops are limited to 15 participants, therefore interested people are encouraged to apply early.

Further information on these courses, potential sponsors, as well as an application form are available at the following Web page: http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/impstrain99.html

or for further questions the contact address is:

INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMS CENTER
Bureau of the Census
Washington, D.C. 20233-8860
U.S.A.
Fax: (301) 457-3033
E-mail: ipc@census.gov

Annual Report on International Statistics

The Annual Report on International Statistics (ARIS) is published by the International Statistical Institute (ISI) in collaboration with the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). This volume reports on major players around the world in the international statistical community.

The 1998 Report commences with two article, one by Willem de Vries, Statistics Netherlands, titled "Getting better organized; Some Challenges for Official Statistics in the Near Future" and the second being "Monitoring Poverty Alleviation in Africa: An Iterative Approach", by Michel Mouyelo-Katula, EuroCost, Luxembourg, et al.

There follows a description of the work programmes of the various ISI sections, providing information on their activities including those of the IAOS (International Association for Official Statistics), the IASC (International Association for Statistical Computing), and the IASS (International Association of Survey Statisticians). In the third section, information on main United Nations and other international and/or governmental organizations is provided. On the remaining fourth, fifth and sixth sections information is provided on International Statistical and Related Associations, National Statistical Associations and Private Sector Bodies and Data Archives respectively. A calendar of selected events in statistical fields, to be held from 1998 to 2000, is also provided.

This overview of ARIS may provide useful updated information on the global statistical community. To find more about the contents of ARIS you can consult the ISI Web site at the following URL http://www.cbs.nl/isi/ARIS.htm

or contact ISI at:
International Statistical Institute
Permanent Office
P.O. Box 950
2270 AZ Voorburg
The Netherlands
Tel. 31-70-3375737
Fax 31-70-3860025 ipc@census.gov
E-mail: isi@cbs.nl

Tentative list of statistical meetings - 1999

A selection of international statistical meetings scheduled to be held in 1999 is provided here. The list includes some regional or subregional meetings that are planned for a limited number of participants only.

  • 1-5 March 1999, New York
    Thirtieth session of the United Nations Statistical Commission (UNSC)
  • 22-26 March 1999, Bangkok  (*)
    Joint UNSD/ESCAP training seminar on international merchandise trade statistics for countries in the ESCAP region
  • 22-25 June 1999, Manila  (*)
    Fourth meeting of ESCAP Working Party on Application of New Technology to Population Data
  • June (5 days) 1999, Bangkok  (*)(**)
    Seminar on information technology management for decision makers
  • June/July (3 days) 1999, Bangkok  (*)(**)
    Seminar on poverty statistics
  • 10-18 August 1999, Helsinki
    Fifty-second session of the International Statistical Institute (ISI)
  • 13-24 September 1999, Bangkok (*)
    UNSD/ESCAP Training Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics
  • September (2 weeks) 1999, Macau (*)(**)
    First subregional training workshop on environment statistics

(*) meeting organized by the Statistics Division of ESCAP.
(**) Dates uncertain.

Central Product Classification version 1.0

The Central Product Classification version 1.0 (CPC 1.0) was issued last May by the United Nations Statistics Division at Headquarters. It replaces the provisional version after further changes to its services part, which was revised thanks to extensive collaboration with the Voorburg Group on Service Statistics.

Other contributions to the CPC 1.0 came from national statistical offices and international agencies.

The publication starts with an historical background, followed by the underlying principles of the classification of goods and services. Goods and services as classified by the CPC 1.0 follow a hierarchical and purely decimal system. The classification consists of sections (first digit), divisions (first and second digits), groups ( three digits), classes (four digits) and subclasses (five digits).

As products are related to other economic concepts, CPC 1.0 is related to other classification standards. These relations of items/subsets of CPC 1.0 are given in respect of the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS), the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC Rev.3) and the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC Rev.3).

The CPC 1.0 is a sales publication of the United Nations (Sales No. E.98.XVII.5, 847 pages, $95.00). Further information for orders can be obtained either by visiting the Web site of the United Nations or by mail at the following address:

United Nations Publications
Room DC2-853, 2 UN Plaza
New York, NY 10017, USA
Telephone: (212) 963-8302
Toll Free 1-800-253-9646 (North America only)
Fax: (212) 963-3489
E-mail: publications@un.org

Further information can be found at the following Web pages:

Missions of ESCAP Statistics Division Staff

Mr M. Khalid Siddiqui, Chief, Statistics Development Section undertook a mission to:

  • Hawaii (25-31 August): To represent ESCAP at the 18th Population Census Conference organized by  the East-West Center, Hawaii, 26-29 August 1998, and to present a technical paper; and to hold discussions with the heads of statistical offices on various issues including  cooperation in the application of new technology to population data.

Mr Loh, Meng Kow, Chief, Statistical Information Services Section, undertook a combined mission to:

  • Manila (23-24 July): A joint mission with an official from the World Bank to visit Asian Development Bank in Manila to discuss possible financial support from ADB for the next round of the International Comparison Programme (ICP) with 1999 as the reference year; and
  • Tokyo (27-28 July): To visit government offices in Japan for discussions on technical and financial support towards organizing the next round of the International Comparison Programme in the ESCAP region.

Mr Ilpo Survo, Programme Officer, undertook a preparatory mission to:

  • Taejon and Seoul (21-24 September): for the Seminar on Application of Information Technology in National Statistical Offices, funded by the Korea-ESCAP Cooperation Fund, to be held in December 1998.

Ms Heidi R. Arboleda, Regional Adviser on National Accounts, undertook the following missions:

  • Singapore (13-17 July): To attend the IMF workshop on the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) at the IMF Singapore Training Institute (STI);
  • Bangladesh (18-24 July): A joint mission with IMF staff members to help undertake experimental implementation of GDDS metadata pages;
  • Philippines (26 July-1 August): To act as a resource person for the 4-week training workshop on the 1993 System of National Accounts (SNA) on compilation methodology for technical personnel of National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) and relevant government agencies, Manila, 27-31 July 1998;
  • India (23 August-3 September): To provide advisory services on national accounts to the Central Statistical Organization;
  • Bangladesh (5-23 September): To advise on the implementation of the 1993 SNA;
  • Islamic Republic of Iran (26 September - 9 October): To conduct a training workshop on the 1993 SNA, in Tehran.

Mr L.H. Lewis, ESCAP Adviser on Population Statistics with the UNFPA/CST in Suva undertook missions to:

  • Fiji (29 June-7 July): To provide lectures at an IMPS software training workshop in Suva;
  • Samoa (11-15 August): To test the model housing and population census questionnaire for the 2000 round census for the Pacific; and assist in developing the questionnaire for the 1998 demographic health survey;
  • Bangkok (24-28 August): Agency visit for consultation;
  • Viet Nam (31 August-12 September): To assist in conducting and evaluating a pilot census for the 1999 census of Viet Nam;
  • Vanuatu (19-26 September): To test the model population and housing census, and to assist in preparatory work for the 1999 census of Vanuatu.

Mr Nuri M. Ozsever, ESCAP Adviser on Population Data Processing and Database Management with the UNFPA/CST in Bangkok, visited the following countries:

  • Indonesia (2-7 August): To assist BKKBN in assessing whether the existing MIS software for reproductive health and family planning is suitable and economically viable for adoption to cover the whole country as an integrated and efficient software for programme management; and to explore the possibilities for revising the software.

Ms Luisa T. Engracia, ESCAP Adviser on Population Statistics with the UNFPA/CST sub-team in Almaty, moved back to the team Headquarters in Kathmandu as of 1 August 1998. Thereafter she undertook a mission to:

  • Tajikistan (24 September-3 October): To work on country population assessment.
Publications released by the Statistics Division
  • Statistical Indicators for Asia and the Pacific, Volume XXVIII, No.3, September 1998
Visitors to the Statistics Division
  • Mr Sultan Ahmad, Statistical Advisory Services, Development Data Group, International Economics Department, International Bank for Reconstruction (IBRD), Washington D.C.
  • Mr R.B.M. Korale,  ADB Senior Statistics Adviser, ADB/UNDP project, Phnom Penh
  • Ms Violeta Gonzales-Diaz, Statistician, Statistics Division, United Nations, New York
  • Mr Sein Tin, Director-General, Central Statistical Organization, Ministry of National Planning and Economic Development, Yangon
  • Mr Peter K. Wingfield Digby, Statistical Consultant, Chiang Mai

   
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