Population growth in the Asia-Pacific region is
much slower overall than in previous decades,
but the situation differs from one country to
another, particularly in the components of
growth – fertility, mortality and migration. Moreover, while many countries still have high
levels of fertility, an increasing number have
started to feel the impact of population ageing.
Since 1990, the population of the Asia-Pacific
region has been growing more slowly than that of
the rest of the world. Between 1990 and 1995, it
grew 1.5% annually but subsequently the growth
rate declined steadily. By 2008, annual growth had fallen to 1.0% – the lowest rate among the world’s
developing regions.
Because more than half the region’s
population are in China and India the region’s
statistical averages are largely determined by these
two countries. This can mask considerable
variations between other countries, or groups of
countries. Thus, although in 2008 the average
population growth rate for Asia and the Pacific as a
whole was 1.0%, in the landlocked developing
countries it was 1.7%, in the least developed
countries it was 1.6%, in the high-income
economies it was 0.3%, and in the low-income
economies it was 1.4%.
The region’s highest population growth rates
in 2008 were in Afghanistan at 3.5%, and Timor-Leste
at 3.2%. Both countries have high rates of natural increase (births minus deaths) and have seen their
overall growth rates boosted by the return of
former refugees. Other countries currently experiencing population growth rates of 2.0% or
more are: Macao, China; Marshall Islands; Pakistan;
Papua New Guinea; Singapore; Solomon Islands
and Vanuatu.
In East and North-East Asia in 2008, the
population growth rate was above 1.0% only in
Mongolia and Macao, China. Countries where
growth rates were positive but low – less than 1.0%
a year – included: Armenia; China; DPR Korea; Hong Kong, China; Kazakhstan; Myanmar;
Republic of Korea; Sri Lanka, Thailand; and several
Pacific island developing economies whose
population growth rates have been reduced by net
outmigration.
Figure 1.1 Population growth for selected Asia-Pacific groupings, 1990-2008
In Japan the population size has become
essentially stationary, while in the Russian
Federation it is declining because death rates exceed
birth rates. Georgia also has a negative population
growth rate because it has low natural increase
combined with net out-migration. In the Pacific, the
population of Niue is also declining because of
out-migration.
The crude birth rate is calculated as the
number of births in a year per 1,000 people. This is
likely to be higher when a high proportion of
women are of childbearing age. The most useful
indicator for this is the total fertility rate (TFR)
which is the number of children that a woman
would bear in her lifetime if she followed current
levels of fertility. It is calculated for five-year age
groups of women aged 15-49. In Asia and the
Pacific, the TFR has declined steadily and is significantly lower than the global average: in the
decade between 1990-1995 and 2005-2010, the
TFR fell from 2.9 to 2.3 children per woman – a consequence of both government-supported
reproductive health programmes and rapid
economic and social growth.
Figure 1.2 Average annual population growth, Asia and the Pacific, 1990-1995, and 2005-2010
Trends for TFRs vary widely across subregions. The steepest declines have generally been in countries that previously had the highest
rates. Thus, between 1990-1995 and 2005-2010 the
TFR for the Asia-Pacific region as a whole declined
by 0.6 children per woman, but in the landlocked
developing countries and in SAARC, the TFR fell
by 1.2. In the least developed countries the decline
was 1.4, and in the ASEAN countries it was 0.8.
In other countries, the TFR remained high.
Over the period 2005-2010, it was above 3.0
children per woman in Afghanistan, the Lao
People’s Democratic Republic, Pakistan, the
Philippines, Tajikistan, Timor-Leste and several
Pacific island States.
Although all East and North-East Asian
countries or areas have TFRs below replacement
level – 2.1 children per woman – their previously
high fertility levels have left them with them high
proportions of young adults who are helping drive
population growth. The only exception is Japan
where the population is older and the total number
of people is falling. Fertility is also below
replacement level in Armenia, Australia, Georgia,
Islamic Republic of Iran, New Zealand, Russian
Federation, Singapore and Thailand.
For both mothers and children, one major
contributor to premature death is early
childbearing. Consequently, most reproductive
health programmes attempt to raise the age at
which women first give birth. For this purpose, one
valuable indicator is the adolescent fertility rate,
which is the average number of live births annually
per 1,000 women aged 15-19 years. For Asia and
the Pacific as a whole, the rate for the period
2005-2010 is estimated at 38.9. Among the least
developed countries, for which the regional average
is 68.0, Afghanistan and Nepal have the highest
rates – more than 100 – similar to the rate for the
Africa region.
As with the crude birth rate, the crude death
rate is also influenced by the population’s age
composition. For that reason, a more useful
indicator for comparing mortality levels is the
expectation of life at birth. Asia and the Pacific has
already had relatively high life expectancies for
some time, so over the past decade the increases
have been modest. Between 1990-95 and 2005-2010, female life expectancy increased from 65.8 to 70.7
years and male life expectancy from 62.5 to 66.6
years. Both are higher than the global average. Generally, life expectancies are strongly influenced
by levels of economic development. Thus, in the period 2005-2010, female life expectancy in the region’s low-income economies was only 66.3 years, while in the middle-income economies it was 70.2 years, and in the high-income economies it was 85.2 years. Afghanistan has the lowest female life expectancy, at 43.8 years.
Figure 1.3 Fertility rates in Asia and the Pacific, 1990-1995 and 2005-2010
Females born today in the Asia-Pacific region
are expected to live on average about four years
longer than males, but the female advantage differs
from one country to another. In Kazakhstan and
the Russian Federation, for example, women will
live more than 12 years longer than men, whose life
expectancy, at 59-60 years, is on a par with that in the least developed countries. At the other end of
the scale, there are a number of countries where
women have a much smaller advantage – two years or
less – as in Bangladesh, Micronesia (Federated States
of), Nepal, Pakistan, Timor-Leste and Solomon
Islands. The only country in which women and men have the same life expectancy is Afghanistan.
Figure 1.4 Crude death rates, Asia and the Pacific, 1990-1995 and 2005-2010
A number of countries in the region are
passing through their demographic transition – as
fertility and mortality switch from high to low. As
they do so, their population structure changes.
Instead of having a high proportion of young
people they acquire a higher proportion of older
people. The middle stages of this transition should
present an economic opportunity. This is because
the proportion of younger people will have declined
but the proportion of older people will not yet have
increased significantly – permitting a couple of
decades of high productivity and relatively low
health expenditure.
As a result of the demographic transition, and
reflecting lower fertility during the previous 15
years, between 1990 and 2008, the proportion of
the region’s population aged 0-14 years declined
steadily, from 33.1 to 26.2% – slightly below the
world average. But the proportion does vary
according to the level of economic development. In
2008, in the low-income economies the proportion
of the population aged 0-14 years was 31.2%, but in
the high-income economies it was only 15.1%.
Over the same period, the proportion of the
population age 65 or older in the region increased
relatively slowly, from 5.1 to 6.9%. But this
proportion varied greatly by country income level.
Among low-income economies it was only 4.8%,
and among middle-income economies it was 6.5%,
but among high-income economies it was 17.3%.
Japan is the most striking example. For five decades
it has had low fertility – since around 1955 the
TFR has been below replacement level. By 2008,
the proportion of the population over 65 was 21.4%. No other country or area in the region
is even close to this, although a number have
reached proportions between 10 and 15% –
Armenia; Australia; Georgia; Hong Kong, China;
New Zealand; Republic of Korea; and the Russian
Federation.
Under normal circumstances, there are likely
to be roughly the same numbers of males and
females. But some countries deviate from this norm– with a greater number of either males or females.
This can happen for a several reasons. The balance
might be disturbed, for example, by differences in
male and female life expectancy, or by
disproportionate shares of either males or females
in in- or out-migration. In addition, some
subregions have unusually low proportions of
female births.
Figure 1.5 Proportion of population aged 0-14, Asia and the Pacific, 1990 and 2008
In South and South-West Asia, for example, the sex ratio – the number of females per 100 males– is considerably below 100, which is the result
either of lower sex ratios at birth, or because
mortality rates do not favour females. On the other
hand, in most countries in North and Central Asia,
the ratio is above 100, as a result of higher female
life expectancies.
The sex ratios for children aged 0-14 years are
determined primarily by the sex ratios at birth, and
by rates of infant and child mortality. In most
national populations, there are fewer girls born than boys – 95 females per 100 males. But since boys are
more likely to die, by age 20 the sex ratios generally
even out at around 100. If the sex ratio for the 0-14
age group is significantly below 95 this implies that
the ratio of girls to boys is unusually low at birth or
that a relatively high proportion of girls are dying.
In 2008, countries in which the 0-14 age group had
particularly low sex ratios include Armenia,
Azerbaijan, China and Georgia.
Figure 1.6 Females per hundred males, in Asia and the Pacific, 1990 and 2008
Figure 1.7 Life expectancy at birth for females and males, Asia and the Pacific, 2005-2010 |
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