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SUMMARY
This paper highlights the statistical and IT
innovations introduced by the Singapore Department
of Statistics and its role in setting standards
and providing the lead in these innovations
for other statistical agencies in Singapore.
The Department improved and expanded statistical
activities to meet increasing demands for more
comprehensive and timely statistical data. These
include the re-orientation of Census taking
towards a register-based cum tri-modal data
collection approach in the year 2000 and the
launch of the 1997/1998 Household Expenditure
Survey to obtain the latest consumption expenditure
of households. In the area of economic statistics,
the provision of new services indicators eg
IT, communications and e-commerce, development
of GDP estimates from the income approach and
implementation of SNA93 and BPM5 are some prominent
activities.
Major improvements in statistical practices
and methodologies were adopted to improve the
quality of Singapore's official statistics.
These include streamlining survey operations,
re-designing questionnaires, revising sampling
techniques and resolving conceptual and measurement
issues in the implementation of the SNA93 and
BPM5 recommendations. Such efforts minimise
respondent burden, reduce survey costs and improve
data quality.
Significant IT initiatives were made. The Department
launched Internet surveys and re-engineered
survey operations via a Survey Answering Guide
Expert (SAGE) system. Generic tools like ACE
and FASTAB were developed to increase coding
and tabulation speed. SingStat DataShop was
launched on the Internet to facilitate online
shopping of Singapore's statistics.
With these new statistical and IT initiatives,
the Department has made substantial progress
in the statistical arena. It adopts an open
approach towards greater sharing of ideas and
co-operation with national statistical offices.
The Department will continue to play an active
role in hosting international workshops in Singapore.
Singapore Department of Statistics
31 Oct 1998
I. Introduction
The Singapore Department of Statistics is the
national statistical office responsible for
the establishment and administration of the
statistical information system on the Singapore
economy and population. As the national statistical
coordinator, the Department sets standards for
adoption by statistical units in various ministries
and provides the lead in the adoption of innovations
in the areas of statistics and information technology.
This paper describes the new statistical and
IT initiatives that the Department has taken
in statistical collection, compilation and dissemination
in recent years. It highlights the new statistical
projects that have been launched and improvements
in statistical procedures and methodologies.
New developments in IT applications that have
been adopted for statistical collection, compilation
and dissemination are also presented.
II New Statistical Activities
The Singapore Department of Statistics has
made continuing efforts to improve and expand
the scope of statistical activities so as to
meet the increasing demands for more comprehensive
and timely statistical data.
a) New Approach to Census
Taking
The Department is re-orienting the approach
of Census taking for the next millenium. The
population census, traditionally conducted via
household enumeration, will adopt an administrative
register-based approach in the year 2000. This
is made possible with the Department's interactive
household register, which is updated regularly
from administrative sources. For the Census
2000, basic items on individuals and households
will be sourced from this household register.
Additional data items for in-depth studies will
be obtained from a 20% sample of the population
via a tri-modal data collection strategy of
Internet Submission, Computer-Assisted Telephone
Interviewing (CATI) and fieldwork. This new
approach enables the Census to be conducted
at lower costs, maximum efficiency and greater
convenience to the population.
b) Household Expenditure
Survey 1997/1998
The seventh Household Expenditure Survey (HES)
has been conducted from November 1997 to October
1998. The survey's main objective is to obtain
the latest consumption expenditure of households
for updating the weighting pattern and basket
of goods and services for the Consumer Price
Index (CPI). The survey also provides data for
national income estimates, socio-economic studies
and policy decisions. The HES 1997/98, which
covers some 9,000 households, is conducted in
two stages. The first stage obtains data on
the availability of consumer durables. During
the second stage, detailed records of households'
expenditure are made and additional information
collected on sources of income, travel expenditure,
asset ownership and investment.
c) Services Indicators
With Singapore's rising importance as a services
hub in the region, there has been greater emphasis
to develop more indicators on the services sector.
Current indicators available are on traditional
services such as entreport, wholesale and retail
trade. The emergence of new services such as
IT, communications and media, healthcare and
logistics, and the rapid pace of financial innovation
has led to the urgent need for more short-term
services indicators. Initiatives were taken
to develop such indicators through greater exploitation
of IT and collaborating with other government
agencies to integrate data from multiple sources
and obtain available data from existing surveys
and administrative records.
One notable emerging economic activity in services
is electronic commerce. As Singapore moves to
establish itself as an e-commerce hub in the
region, it is important to keep track of e-commerce
activities and study its impact on GDP and other
areas. Recognising the importance of accurate
measurement of e-commerce, the Department plans
to launch a new survey by end-1998 to provide
some benchmark on e-commerce indicators.
In order to provide more current indicators
to track the short-term performance of important
services industries, a new indicator on Quarterly
Business Receipts Index (QBRI) is being developed.
Data for the index will be sourced from a new
quarterly survey launched in Oct 1998.
d) Income-based Measure
of GDP
The Department has completed the development
of GDP estimates from the income approach, GDP(I).
This measure complements the existing production
and expenditure-based GDP series. The income
estimates are compiled at factor costs as well
as current market prices. Estimates of GDP(I)
at 1990 market prices are computed by using
the implicit GDP deflator from the expenditure
approach. The methodology underlying the compilation
of the GDP(I) estimates and historical data
series from 1980 to 1997 have been published
recently in October 1998.
e) Implementation of SNA93
The implementation of the recommendations
in SNA93 is accorded high priority in the Department
as these reflect changing economic behaviour,
new policy concerns and greater harmonisation
with other international statistical standards.
The Department will tap on the experiences of
Canada and Australia, which have started the
implementation process through papers, seminars
and workshops. Challenges which the Department
faces in the implementation of SNA93 include
balancing the need for additional information
and reducing respondent burden; adjusting for
cash versus accrual basis of recording; and
addressing measurement issues on new activities
such as electronic commerce and financial derivatives.
f) Implementation of Balance
of Payments Manual, 5th Edition
The Department has adopted a two-stage approach
to implement the Balance of Payments Manual,
5th edition (BPM5), in line with
the IMF's recommendation. The first stage involves
reclassifying existing data into their respective
BPM5 standard components. The second stage requires
new data sources and methodologies to be reviewed
and developed. For the latter stage, as historical
data are not readily available for the backcasting
of data series to earlier years, efforts will
be made to enhance the comparability of the
new and old data series on the broad basis.
More effort has to be made to explore new data
sources as new surveys impose greater reporting
burden. Where possible, attempts have been made
to improve these data sources by providing assistance
to respondents and obtaining feedback to gain
a better understanding of the real world situation.
III Improvement in Statistical
Procedures and Methodologies
The Department is constantly reviewing and
keeping abreast of new developments in international
statistical practices and methodologies. Where
appropriate, more cost-effective survey methods
and new techniques in statistical procedures
are adopted to improve the quality of Singapore's
official statistics.
a) Streamlining of Survey
Operations and Consolidation of Surveys
To improve timeliness in data dissemination,
the Department has streamlined the survey operations
for two of its major surveys. Unlike the earlier
years, the 1997 Surveys of Commerce and Services
are carried out in two phases. For more timely
release, items required for the compilation
of principal statistics are first collected
in the first phase and will be published at
an earlier date. Detailed items for specific
industry studies, to be obtained from the companies'
financial accounts, will be captured in the
second phase.
A new approach has also been adopted to consolidate
surveys to maximise the use of available data
and minimise reporting burden. This involves
tagging some of the new surveys onto existing
ones. In the recent Survey of Foreign Debt Transactions,
data items are incorporated into the existing
Survey of Investment Abroad for similar companies
surveyed. The Study of Financial Structure and
Operations of Companies also tagged onto financial
accounts of firms covered in the Surveys of
Commerce and Services.
b) Revision of Sampling
Methods
The Department is reviewing the sampling methods
for several surveys. For the large-scale annual
Surveys of Commerce and Services, the sampling
design has been revised. Optimal cut-off rules
for stratifying a population into a take-all
and take-some strata within each industry are
used to minimise the sample size for required
precision expected from the overall sample.
This is possible as the population's distribution
in terms of the contribution of operating receipts
is positively skewed towards fewer large firms
vis-a-vis many smaller ones. With no compromise
on data quality, the sample size has been significantly
lowered by one-half, thereby relieving respondent
burden and enabling timely release of the survey
results.
The sampling method for the smaller-scale quarterly
Business Expectations Survey is currently under
review. This survey, which has the objective
of obtaining more comprehensive coverage on
the small and medium enterprises, covers fewer
but larger firms.
c) Re-design of Questionnaires
In the continuing efforts to minimise respondent
burden, the Department has been examining ways
to integrate data from available sources. This
has resulted in a re-design of survey questionnaires.
In particular, the previous eight-page questionnaire
for the 1997 Survey of Commerce (Wholesale and
Retail) is substantially reduced to four pages
as information readily available in companies'
financial statements are excluded.
d) Implementation of System
of National Accounts 1993 (SNA 93)
Some of the improvements carried out under
the implementation of the SNA 93 include: review
and improvement of the estimation of financial
services; review of existing data sources to
classify estimates by functional classifications
outlined in the SNA 93; reclassification of
royalties from property income to services;
and computation of insurance value-added. In
addition, a review of the estimation and allocation
of the 'Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly
Measured' (FISIM) in National Accounts is being
explored. Studies to compile FISIM using the
reference rate method will be updated. A feasibility
study on the compilation of capital stock by
industry & institutions is also in progress.
e) Implementation of Balance
of Payments Manual (5th Edition)
Implementation issues pertaining to the BOP
are first identified and prioritized. This is
followed by the identification and development
of new data sources, refinement of current methodologies
and development of new methodologies. Work on
the development of new data sources began in
1996. This included implementing new surveys
eg Foreign Debt Transactions and Trade in Services,
refining existing surveys and using existing
data sources. The Department is in the process
of assessing the new data collected to determine
their suitability for incorporation into the
BOP.
IV New IT Initiatives
In line with the rapid changes in IT, the Department
has examined ways to upgrade survey operations
and exploit the latest technology in the areas
of data collection, processing, tabulation and
dissemination.
a) Electronic Transmission
of Returns (ETR)
The Department embarked on its maiden launch
of conducting surveys over the Internet in March
1998. Implemented for the quarterly Business
Expectations Survey, the ETR system is a quick
and convenient mode of data submission for survey
respondents. The ETR not only expedites survey
operations but results in faster compilation
and dissemination of statistical information
to other organisations and the public.
b) Survey Answering Guide
Expert (SAGE) system
Arising from the need to upgrade survey operations
for better staff performance, timeliness and
data quality, one of the technologies considered
is the Survey Answering Guide Expert (SAGE)
system. SAGE adopts a re-engineered process
using smart forms with embedded domain knowledge
for data validation. These smart forms support
multiple modes of data submission via the Internet,
fax and paper. Intelligent Character Recognition
(ICR) technology is also adopted for data capture.
As the SAGE is envisaged to reduce the manual
operations in survey work at the primary level
without any compromise to data quality, significant
cost saving will be achieved as less manpower
is required.
c) Advanced Coding Environment
(ACE)
To improve coding accuracy and reduce labour-intensive
operations in coding, the Department has commissioned
the development of the ACE software. Using descriptive
information collected from censuses and surveys,
ACE embraces artificial intelligence techniques
to suggest codes for selection and has auto-coding
capabilities for direct matching from code dictionaries.
Being a generic tool capable of large volume
coding, ACE could fill a gap in the software
market for an off-the-shelf coding package.
d) Flexible and Swift
Tabulation (FASTAB)
The Department has also commissioned the development
of FASTAB to address the needs of users for
an end-user tabulation software. It is a sophisticated
tabulation tool capable of performing cross-tabulations
on large databases. FASTAB's distinct feature
lies in its speed - it can process 5 levels
of data for 3 million records within 60 seconds.
With Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs), online
tips and drag-and-drop capabilities, users simply
specify the parameters on screen. Programmes
written in earlier sessions can be saved, modified
and re-applied to new tabulations as well.
e) SingStat DataShop
With the trend towards e-commerce, the Department
has launched a new service on the Internet,
SingStat DataShop. This is the virtual one-stop
centre for purchase of official statistics on
Singapore. Users can pay a virtual visit to
DataShop and shop online for softcopies of statistical
tables and publications. Payments are done via
cashcards or credit cards. SingStat DataShop
improves the dissemination of data to the public
not only by providing speedier access for information
but facilitates global access to the country's
statistics and indicators.
V. Training and Technical
Cooperation
ESCAP's Second Meeting of the Working Party
on Application of New Technology to Population
Data on 1-3 April 1998 was held in Singapore
and hosted by the Department. The meeting provided
an important forum for participants to share
and discuss their experiences on new technologies
as well as internet applications. Guidelines
on recommendations on IT usage for national
statistical offices were also drawn out during
the meeting.
Given the importance of technical cooperation
in the international statistical community,
the Department will be taking an active role
in hosting several other meetings in Singapore.
These include the IMF/UN Meeting on "Good Practices
in Statistics" to be held during 12-14 January
1999, the SIAP Time Series Workshop during 15-26
March 1999. The Department is also a joint organiser
of the ISI Cutting Edge Ecommerce Conference
scheduled in December 1999.
VI. Concluding Remarks
In recent years, the Singapore Department
of Statistics has made substantial progress
in the statistical arena. The Department has
initiated moves to improve and expand the scope
of statistical activities and methodologies,
and will adopt an open approach towards greater
sharing of ideas and products and more active
co-operation with other national statistical
offices in the region.
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