| OVERVIEW
STATISTICAL IMPROVEMENTS
- GREATER USE OF ADMINISTRATIVE
DATA
- Economic Statistics
Strategy
- Data Integration
Feasibility Study
- ECONOMIC STATISTICS
- Balance of Payments
- National Accounts
- Consumers Price
Index
- SOCIAL AND POPULATION
STATISTICS
- Social Policy
- Longitudinal Survey
- Time Use Survey
- Demography.
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INITIATIVES
- SPROCET
- PC/TRADE
- BUSINESS FRAME
TECHNICAL CO-OPERATION
Overview
In economic statistics, the objectives of Statistics
New Zealand's current development programme
include:
- measures to improve accuracy
and reduce the level of revisions in quarterly
GDP
- extensions to, and improved
quality of, institutional sector accounts
- development of a Tourism
Satellite Account
- extensions to quarterly
BoP statistics
- complete BPM5 and SNA
93 implementation
- new and improved inflation
measures
- improved statistics on
services
- extend range of short-term
economic indicators
In the coming year agriculture, environment,
Information Technology, savings and investment
and energy statistics are areas requiring attention.
In household statistics, the objectives of
the current development programme include:
- preparation for the 2001
Census of Population
- development of a household
longitudinal survey on income and employment
dynamics
- undertaking a comprehensive
time-use survey
- enhanced co-ordination
of social statistics collected by other agencies
- upgrading employment
statistics
- integrating tax and welfare
benefit data to provide a source of income
and employment statistics
In the coming year income distribution statistics
is seen as an area requiring attention.
Overall, Statistics New Zealand plans to:
- take further advantage
of the investments made in recent years in
upgrading its information technology base
to improve output quality and efficiency of
operations, and to emphasise the Internet
as the core access channel to our statistics
- play a more active role
in co-ordinating and promoting the quality
of official statistics produced outside Statistics
New Zealand
- strengthen the contribution
of our people by implementing a programme
of investment in staff training in both statistical
and management skills.
To better reflect the nature of the various
outputs and processes of the department, the
internal organisation of Statistics New Zealand
was recently restructured into five groups:
- Economic Statistics
Group
- Social and Population
Statistics Group
- Information and Technology
Services Group
- Statistical Development
Group (statistical methodologies); and
- Office of the Government
Statistician (human resources, finance and
planning functions).
Statistical Improvements
Greater Use of Administrative
Data
Economic Statistics Strategy
Impacting on virtually all components of the
Economic Statistics, the Economic Statistics
Strategy represents the most important initiative
recently undertaken by Statistics New Zealand.
The strategy's objective is to redesign present
survey methodology to capture cost efficiencies
and reduce respondent burden whilst meeting
emerging data requirements and supporting improvements
in accuracy.
Where possible, the strategy seeks to use administrative
data sources to collect information concerning
small/medium business in preference to surveys.
For example, data currently collected by branches
of government are being incorporated into statistical
outputs, reducing both respondent compliance
costs and explicit survey costs as well as making
the outputs more timely. Most of the data
used to produce Government Sector statistics
is now sourced from the administration records
of the New Zealand Treasury's Crown Financial
Information System. The previous collection
vehicle, the Crown Enterprise Survey, has ceased.
Administrative data has also expanded the
range of statistical outputs. A monthly
Business Activity Indicator Series, developed
using sales and expenses data collected to assess
firms' Goods and Services Tax (GST) liabilities,
provides comprehensive coverage of economic
activity in 80 industries. Few industries
are exempt from GST, as GST registration is
compulsory for businesses whose turnover exceeds
$30,000. Apart from adding to the range
of short-term statistics available for forecasting
and economic monitoring, and providing added
data on services, the new indicator will feed
into both the existing quarterly production-based
GDP measure and an income-based GDP measure
currently in development.
In our recently completed round of economic
censuses, data derived from annual tax returns
has been used to replace direct surveying for
up to 75% of firms (the smaller and less complex
businesses). In our 1998 annual financial
survey of enterprises, similar data will be
used to eliminate surveying for a third of firms
in the sample.
Data Integration Feasibility
Study
In 1997, the department undertook a feasibility
study into the costs and benefits of integrating
administrative data collected by different government
agencies to produce new social statistics.
The department consulted with 29 government
agencies and concluded that, although new statistics
were feasible, several outstanding issues remain,
notably, data confidentiality and the protection
of individual privacy. The development
of an approval process and protocols to govern
data integration are still required. However,
the use of administrative data sources will
enhance the range of outputs produced.
Economic Statistics
Balance of Payments
There are two main initiatives being undertaken
to improve Balance of Payments statistics: implementing
the requirements of the fifth edition of the
International Monetary Fund's Balance of Payments
Manual (BPM5), and developing a quarterly capital
account.
Balance of payments statistics are currently
compiled according to the fourth edition of
the International Monetary Fund's Manual (BPM4).
Implementation of BPM5, to be undertaken in
two stages, will better reflect the importance
of services, adopt a more realistic threshold
for portfolio investment, and increase the commonality
between Balance of Payments and National Accounting
methodologies.
Stage one was largely presentational and involved
republication of the March 1998 quarter Balance
of Payments and a statement of New Zealand's
International Investment Position for the year
ended March 1997 on a BPM5 basis, given existing
survey data. The present capital account
of the Balance of Payment was renamed as the
financial account and migrants transfers moved
from the current account to a redefined capital
account. Other changes included a more
detailed services breakdown, an expanded coverage
of portfolio investment, and changes in the
breakdown of direct, portfolio and other investment.
Stage two, to be published in 1999, will present
financial/capital flows and stocks on the new
direct investment criterion of 10 percent, together
with a detailed breakdown of reserves, estimates
of investment income, and separate estimates
for portfolio investment income and other investment
income. Other changes include an expanded
coverage of both travel (to capture the expenditure
of students and medical patients who have travelled
abroad for more than one year), and an expanded
coverage of financial services.
Quarterly financial accounts and international
investment position statements are being developed.
When finished they will enable Statistics New
Zealand for the first time to provide comprehensive
information each quarter on New Zealand's international
assets and liabilities and related financial
flows.
The move to BPM5 and the creation of quarterly
financial accounts are envisaged to be finished
by 2001 as new collection systems and methodologies
are introduced.
National Accounts
A number of initiatives designed to expand
the range of statistical outputs and improve
the quality of existing series have been undertaken.
New statistical outputs include the development
of a capital stock series for use in productivity
analysis and improved depreciation measures,
a tourism satellite account, and a quarterly
income-based measure of GDP. Experimental
chain-linked measures of constant price expenditure
on GDP (GDP(E)) have recently been created and
released for public comment. The publication
of the 1996 Inter-Industry Study in late 1999
will benchmark the New Zealand System of National
Accounts according to SNA93 concepts and will
also introduce ANZSIC (Australia and New Zealand
Standard Industry Classification) industry definitions.
Work will soon start on the development of an
Input/Output framework for balancing constant
price GDP and GDP(E), which will improve the
quality of both quarterly GDP series.
Improvements by other sections in the Economic
Statistics Group have made these initiatives
possible. The redevelopment by Business
Statistics of the Producer's Price Index to
incorporate commodity pricing has created the
potential for constant price GDP/GDP(E) balancing.
The inclusion by Business Surveys of an institutional
sector dimension to the Annual Enterprise Survey
will upgrade the status of the currently experimental
institutional sector accounts into an official
series.
Consumers Price Index
The latest five year review of New Zealand's
Consumers Price Index was completed in 1997,
and recommended that Statistics New Zealand
introduce a number of fundamental changes to
the CPI. The thrust behind the major recommendations
was the belief that a single measure of price
change, such as the CPI, cannot satisfactorily
meet all the needs of users. Statistics
New Zealand is to produce three measures of
consumer price change:
- an acquisitions-based
index, excluding interest payments, focused
on measuring inflation, which would be regarded
as an official CPI
- an actual outlays index
which would include interest payments reflecting
the costs incurred by households; and
- a consumption-based series,
consistent with national accounts concepts.
In addition, a real disposable income index
is to be developed to measure changes in the
purchasing power of different household groups
resulting from changes to taxes, incomes and
prices.
International Contacts
Statistics New Zealand staff are active participants
in a number of international statistical working
groups, including the Voorburg group on Business
Statistics, the Ottawa group on price statistics,
the Canberra group on Capital Stock measurement,
and the International Round Table on Business
Frames. We attend OECD-sponsored meetings
on National Accounts and we have participated
in a recent IMF-sponsored survey on comparative
measurement of overseas portfolio investment.
The 1999 meeting of the Voorburg Group and the
2000 meeting of the International Roundtable
on Business Frames will both be held in New
Zealand.
Social and Population
Statistics
Social Policy
Longitudinal Survey
In 1997, work began on developing a methodology
for a longitudinal survey of income dynamics.
The objectives of the survey are to highlight
changes in individual and family income and
assets over time, and to determine influencing
factors. Resulting statistics will examine
the average duration on a particular income
level, the probabilities of movement between
income states and the frequency of employment
events (such as unemployment). Predictors
of events, duration, frequencies and probabilities
will also be considered, such as the impact
of education levels on employment status and
the probability of changing status. The
project is currently developmental. Additional
funding to implement the survey will ultimately
be required. However, work has started
on the specification of the detailed content
of the survey, the electronic questionnaire
and the sample design.
Time Use Survey
A recent government initiative, New Zealand's
first major Time Use Survey is intended to provide
statistics on the time commitments of New Zealanders.
The focus of the survey is on collecting information
from approximately 8,500 people, aged 12 years
and over, regarding the time spent in productive
activities. Productive activities can
include education and training, leisure and
personal care, as well as paid work. The
resulting statistics will improve government
policy making in the health, employment and
welfare sectors.
Demography
Ethnic Data Collection
The measurement of ethnicity continues to
present challenges to those interested in analysing
the ethnic composition of New Zealand's population,
differentials and population growth. Ethnicity
in New Zealand has traditionally been measured
in terms of the reported ethnic origins of a
person's ancestors. However, for many
New Zealanders the notion of belonging to a
single ethnic group is considered inappropriate
and offensive. As a result, the definition
of ethnicity has broadened extensively in recent
years as ethnicity has become accepted as something
more intricate, involving personal identification,
perception and choice.
While the broadening definition of ethnicity
has allowed multiple responses to be accommodated
in the collection of official statistics, it
means that different ethnic groups are no longer
mutually exclusive. For example, someone identifying
with Maori, Pacific Islands and Asian ethnic
groups would be included in each of those populations
in population projections. This is considered
a problem by some data users who resort to prioritising
the responses so that the data sums to 100%.
However, this approach undercounts those groups
lower in the priority hierarchy, notably Pacific
Islands, Asian and
European populations. Prioritising ethnic response
constrains the data in ways which were never
intended when it was collected and processed.
Despite the problems for data users, the shift
to a self-identification concept has made the
collection of ethnic data more acceptable to
respondents.
Information Technology
Initiatives
Statistics New Zealand has been undertaking
a major programme to re-engineer its computing
environment to improve reliability and timeliness
in producing key statistics, reduce ongoing
production costs, increase the range of statistical
services and improve the flexibility of systems
and processes. A major milestone
in the process will be the decommissioning at
the end of this year of the department's mainframe
computer, with all processing then being undertaken
in a client-server environment. Major
features of the development have been the adoption
of Lotus Notes as the corporate information
management environment, development of new processing
systems using Lotus Notes, Sybase and Centura
software, the use of SAS and Excel as analysis
tools, and the development of the SNZ website
as the major information gateway to the department.
A number of major infrastructure systems for
the Business Register, classifications and meta-data
have also been a key feature of the strategy.
SProceT
The need for a standardised survey processing
system for use in the surveys currently undertaken
by Statistics New Zealand has been apparent
for some time. SProceT, Statistics New
Zealand's reusable Survey Processing Template,
is designed to improve productivity by providing
a standardised data capture module that can
be employed in the collection of different survey
information. As a result, SProceT has
made it easier for processing staff to be rotated
between surveys, has improved publication times,
and has reduced processing errors. A standardised
data capture system has also reduced development
costs for new surveys.
Written in Lotus Notes, SProceT's flexibility
is ideal in managing the inherent differences
between surveys. Its advantage over other
systems is that it can employ Lotus Notes Views
to undertake the tasks required in the data
capture - output editing process. The
dynamic nature of the Views and Categories features
of Lotus Notes software has transformed processes
that were previously large batch jobs into interactive
processing, and it allows SProceT to be integrated
with the Business Register and the Business
Surveys database of respondent information.
The system is to be used for several surveys
over the next 18 months, including the Quarterly
Manufacturing Survey, the Quarterly Employment
Survey, the Retail Trade Survey and the Annual
Enterprise Survey. SProceT will eventually
become the standard processing system for all
business surveys.
Future technical directions are likely to focus
on electronic interfaces to enable respondents
to supply data electronically or via fax, the
Internet, or through touch-tone data entry.
PC/Trade
Developed for collecting and analysing overseas
trade data, PC/Trade is intended for use by
small Pacific countries with limited staffing
and computing resources. Designed in the
mid 1980's for a PC DOS environment, the latest
version is based on Microsoft Access97 and employs
a graphical user interface with full Windows95
functionality. Although created for the
needs of the South Pacific Commission region,
PC/Trade has been successfully employed in the
compilation of statistics by other small countries,
including Albania.
PC/TRADE provides a user friendly data entry
facility with built-in reporting modules to
simplify the creation of a variety of tabulated
reports suitable for the compilation of National
Accounts. In addition, data analysis is
possible either from within PC/Trade or via
a wide variety of other spreadsheet or database
applications. In countries where PC/Trade
has been installed statistical agencies are
now able to provide accurate and timely trade
information to their governments, greatly assisting
in the formulation of import duty legislation
as well as the compilation of statistics.
During 1998 PC/Trade for Windows95 has been
installed in Niue, Tuvalu, Cook Islands, French
Polynesia, Republic Of Palau and the Northern
Marianas. Installation visits planned
for 1999 include Kiribati, Marshall Islands,
Vanuatu and Guam with other countries such as
Samoa, Tonga and Nauru possibilities depending
on resource availability.
Business Frame
The Business Frame (the computer system supporting
SNZ's Business Register), launched just over
18 months ago and developed by Statistics New
Zealand, is internationally recognised as world
class, with sales of the system to the Irish
Central Statistics Office and strong international
expressions of interest. The Business
Frame is a central component for disseminating
survey and administrative data throughout the
department. Its design and functionality
enables surveys to employ tax and other administrative
data and is seen as pivotal for the success
of the Economic Statistics Strategy.
Technical Co-operation
Co-operative Initiatives
Recent initiatives, including staff secondment,
bilateral conferences and workshops, have strengthened
links between the Australian Bureau of Statistics
(ABS) and Statistics New Zealand. In addition,
both organisations have implemented Lotus Notes
software which has improved the information
flow between the two organisations.
In October 1997, the Australian Commonwealth-State
Population Workshop, involving planners from
the Australian states, and staff of the ABS
and SNZ, was held in Christchurch. The
workshop's aim was to share information on progress
in population work, such as in planning, population
projections, methodological developments and
meeting information gaps. In addition,
recent workshops have been held between the
National Accounts / Business Statistics/Inflation
Measures Divisions of Statistics New Zealand
and their counterparts in the ABS. Topics
discussed included CPI revision issues, FISIM
estimates in the National Accounts, capital
stock measures and chainlinking constant price
measures of GDP.
In December 1997, a joint ABS and SNZ workshop
was held in Canberra. The aim was to share
the experiences of both organisations in the
1996 cycle of post-enumeration surveys, and
in the related adjustment of post-censal population
estimates for census undercount. The bilateral
discussions focused on the differences in approach
of the ABS and SNZ, what each organisation might
learn from each other, and the likely developments
for the 2001 cycle of post-enumeration surveys.
Statistics NZ has also been contracted to provide
statistical services for an Institutional Strengthening
Project in Tuvalu involving reviewing the existing
statistical collections for adequacy and modifying
such to ensure that they produce relevant performance
measures of the economy and its community.
|
