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I.
ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETING
1. The tenth session of the Working Group
of Statistical Experts, organized by the secretariat
of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia
and the Pacific (ESCAP), was held in Bangkok
from 11 to 14 November 1997.
A.
Attendance
2. The session was attended by representatives
of the following 25 members and associate members
of ESCAP: Australia; Brunei Darussalam; China;
Fiji; Hong Kong, China; India; Indonesia; Iran
(Islamic Republic of); Japan; Macau; Malaysia;
Maldives; Mongolia; Myanmar; Nepal; New Caledonia;
New Zealand; Pakistan; Philippines; Republic
of Korea; Russian Federation; Singapore; Thailand;
United States of America; and Viet Nam.
3. The meeting was also attended by representatives
of the following United Nations bodies and specialized
agencies: United Nations Centre for Human Settlements
(Habitat), United Nations Children's Fund, United
Nations Development Fund for Women, United Nations
Population Fund, International Labour Organization,
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations, United Nations Educational, Scientific
and Cultural Organization, International Monetary
Fund and United Nations Industrial Development
Organization. Representatives of the following
intergovernmental organizations also attended:
Asian Development Bank and Commonwealth of Independent
States. The Statistical Institute for Asia and
the Pacific was also represented.
B.
Opening of the meeting
4. The meeting was opened by the Deputy Executive
Secretary and Officer-in-Charge, a.i. of ESCAP,
who said she was impressed by the strong representation
from the countries and the presence of several
international and regional agencies. She thanked
the governments and agencies for their support
of the Committee on Statistics, under the guidance
of which the Working Group provided important
inputs to the process of statistical development
in the region and an opportunity to discuss
a broad range of issues.
5. While recent significant developments in
some economies of the region were having some
negative effects, they could also spur the need
to reassess policies and to review planning
and monitoring mechanisms, for which the timely
availability of appropriate data was of crucial
importance. The Working Group's discussions
of related topics such as data dissemination
standards and the 1993 System of National Accounts
were particularly relevant. Other agenda items,
including population and housing censuses, gender
statistics, prices, and the year 2000 problem
also covered important areas. In wishing the
participants a successful session, the Deputy
Executive Secretary was certain that the Working
Group's deliberations would help the secretariat
implement relevant statistical activities in
the region.
6. It was noted that the bureau of the tenth
session of the Committee on Statistics would
officiate at the meeting of the Working Group.
Accordingly, Mr Frederick W.H. Ho (Hong Kong,
China) served as chairperson, Mr Timoci Bainimarama
(Fiji), Mr M.D. Asthana (India), Ms Ch. Davaasuren
(Mongolia) and Ms Alice Goh (Singapore) as vice-chairpersons,
and Mr Romulo Virola (Philippines) as rapporteur.
7. The Working Group adopted the following
agenda:
- Opening of the session.
- Adoption of the agenda.
- Report of the bureau.
- An overview of significant
global and regional issues in official statistics.
- The year 2000 problem:
strategic issues for national statistical
services.
- The General Data Dissemination
System and Special Data Dissemination Standard.
- Population and housing
censuses.
- Gender statistics.
- Issues in implementing
the 1993 System of National Accounts.
- Price statistics.
- Review of the programme
of work in statistics, 1998-1999.
- Provisional agenda for
the eleventh session of the Committee on Statistics.
- Other matters.
- Adoption of the report.
II.
REPORT OF THE BUREAU
8. The item was introduced by the chairperson.
It was noted that over the past year the bureau
had met formally on one occasion, just prior
to the Working Group session, but bureau members
had taken advantage of other statistical meetings
to exchange views and had also been in correspondence
with each other and the secretariat, for example,
in fulfilling the mandate of the Committee on
Statistics to monitor the adoption of its terms
of reference by the Economic and Social Commission
for Asia and the Pacific.
9. The Working Group noted that the major
task undertaken by the bureau had been to review
the respective roles of the Committee on Statistics,
the Working Group of Statistical Experts, the
bureau and the secretariat. That review, while
precipitated in part by the reduction in the
duration of the next session of the Committee
on Statistics, aimed more fundamentally at promoting
the development of statistics in the region
and projecting a more proactive stance for Asia
and the Pacific onto the global scene, despite
significant resource constraints. Such a process
involved careful selection of the most important
issues, commitment among various parties to
a division of labour, the promotion of contacts
and collaboration, and an increase in productivity
by locating and accessing low-cost or free methodological
papers, templates, computer programs and other
available resources.
10. The Working Group concurred with the bureau's
view that the Committee on Statistics should
concentrate on strategic issues, making definitive
decisions on directions of change and development,
commissioning work on key areas of concern,
and formulating consensus or highlighting regional
concerns at global forums on important statistical
issues. The Working Group could take on a broad
range of subjects which would have to be accompanied
by sufficient pre-meeting preparations if discussions
in the Group were to be brief yet not superficial.
The Working Group deliberations, through the
crystallization of ideas and identification
of issues, could generate material for the Committee
on Statistics in its decision-making or other
strategic roles. Other expert groups could be
formed to discuss more specific topics.
11. The Working Group agreed with the bureau's
observation that the ESCAP region was not adequately
involved in the many "city groups" that had
been established to advance methodological work
in several areas of statistics. Since those
groups were very influential in setting international
statistical standards, ways and means to increase
the region's involvement needed to be explored.
While city groups were generally open forums,
in practice many of the groups had limited membership.
The Working Group noted that the requirement
that participants had to pay their own way to
the groups and contribute in a substantive sense
might prove daunting obstacles to effective
participation. It nevertheless felt that some,
if not all countries in the region could make
a sound contribution to the deliberations of
the city groups. The Working Group considered
it important, if not necessary, that developing
country problems and issues should be described
and clearly understood in those city group deliberations,
especially when international statistical standards
were being formulated. It was suggested that,
as participation for developing countries in
the city groups would be partly a proactive
and partly a learning process, the criteria
for such participation might be relaxed somewhat.
The Working Group held the view that it was
important for ESCAP countries and the secretariat
to become more involved in the work of the city
groups. It recognized the need to become organized
concerning information about the city groups,
financing, and substantive representation (perhaps
by designation of one or two countries for each
group), and to liaise with the United Nations
Statistics Division to ensure that the work
of the city groups remained accessible.
12. The Working Group also concurred with
the bureau's recommendation that the information
dissemination and communication network centred
at the secretariat should be enhanced. In particular,
it felt that the Statistical Newsletter
was a very important vehicle for conveying information
to help implement many of the ideas and initiatives
discussed. Although concern was expressed over
the slow progress of establishing the ESCAP
Statistical Information System because of the
severe resource constraints facing the secretariat,
the Working Group nevertheless recognized the
considerable potential of the System; at the
same time, it felt that the secretariat should
include on the ESCAP home page some frequently
used statistics, modelled on the current publication
Asia-Pacific in Figures. The home page
itself could also be utilized more creatively
with methodological news, as an information
clearing house for substantive information,
and so forth. Even in its current format, the
Statistics Division's home page was found to
be very useful, including the links to the home
pages of national statistical offices, which
contained detailed data.
13. The Working Group also noted with satisfaction
that the system of periodic reporting by the
secretariat regarding the decisions and recommendations
of the previous sessions of the Committee on
Statistics was a very good means of tracking
progress and assisted in the review of work
priorities from time to time. The Working Group
also noted with appreciation the representation
role played by the chairperson of the Committee
at the February 1997 session of the United Nations
Statistical Commission and the third session
of the Governing Board of the Statistical Institute
for Asia and the Pacific (SIAP) in October 1997.
III.
AN OVERVIEW OF SIGNIFICANT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
ISSUES IN OFFICIAL STATISTICS
14. The Working Group reviewed significant
global and regional issues in official statistics
on the basis of secretariat paper STAT/WGSE.10/2,
which described some of the developments relating
to fields of official statistics not covered
under other agenda items. The Working Group
welcomed the paper and encouraged the secretariat
to continue gathering information on current
important statistical developments and to pass
it on to countries in the region. Regional meetings
to address important issues could be organized
by the secretariat when there were indications
that a sufficient number of governments could
bear the cost of their own participation, and
once the holding of the meetings was confirmed,
efforts might be made to seek sources of funding
for attendance by others who might be significantly
affected or concerned but debarred from participating
for financial reasons.
15. With regard to general statistical coordination
at the subregional level, the Working Group
heard that the first meeting of the Association
of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Directors
of Statistics had been held in Jakarta in October
1997. That meeting had strongly recommended
that a statistical unit be set up in the ASEAN
secretariat, which normally obtained data from
sources other than the countries themselves,
leading to problems of timeliness. The meeting
had also decided that statistical cooperation
among ASEAN countries should be strengthened,
through on-the-job training and other means.
16. The Working Group heard that it was important
for countries in transition to learn from the
experience of other countries in formulating
legislation and developing the organizational
structure to address problems in the field of
statistics. The Working Group noted that financial
assistance to transition countries of the Former
Soviet Union had so far been concentrated on
European countries. It was hoped that future
assistance would provide more emphasis on the
statistical development of the Central Asian
countries.
16. The Working Group agreed that the Internet
was an important medium of data dissemination.
There was a need for each developing country
to have access to e-mail and Internet and to
have a web site, and the Working Group noted
with appreciation that the Asian Development
Bank (ADB) had been assisting some countries
in that respect. The Working Group recognized
that it was important to consider not only web
site infrastructure but also the contents of
the web site and its presentation. Existing
sites could provide useful templates for countries
developing their own web sites for presentation
and dissemination of statistical information.
17. The Working Group suggested that a workshop
to discuss ways of getting and sharing information
through the Internet should be organized for
countries in the region, perhaps in conjunction
with the Third Conference of the Asian Regional
Section of the International Association for
Statistical Computing, to be held in Manila
in December 1998. The Working Group noted that
the second meeting of the Working Party on the
Application of New Technology to Population
Data, planned to be organized in the first quarter
of 1998, would also be used as a forum for discussion
on the use of the Internet for statistical activities.
19. The Working Group welcomed the technical
reports prepared by the United Nations Statistics
Division with the support of the United Nations
Population Fund (UNFPA) on civil registration
and vital statistics. The Working Group was
reminded that 1995-1999 had been declared by
the Economic and Social Commission for Asia
and the Pacific as the quinquennium on civil
registration and vital statistics in the region.
Unfortunately, no progress had been made on
secretariat activities in support of that declaration
owing to the lack of extrabudgetary funding.
Yet, as there might be progress made in that
area within the countries, the Working Group
advised the secretariat to collate information
in that regard for general dissemination as
one means to prompt others to make efforts during
the rest of the quinquennium.
20. Poverty statistics was being given a high
priority in many countries of the region. The
Working Group recognized the limitation of headcount
measures of poverty, and suggested that measures
or indicators that would help identify more
precisely the target populations for poverty
alleviation programmes should be further developed.
Poverty assessment had been conducted in some
countries with financial support from agencies
such as the United Nations Development Programme
(UNDP).
21. The Working Group was informed that the
United Nations Statistics Division had so far
tried unsuccessfully to seek funding for the
implementation of the Minimum National Social
Data Set (MNSDS) through the conduct of pilot
studies on national data sets. Noting the endorsement
of MNSDS by the Statistical Commission, the
Working Group recommended that countries should
be encouraged to start compiling the necessary
data. ADB informed the meeting that much of
the MNSDS data set for many countries could
be readily assembled from its existing database.
That might assist with the pilot studies.
22. The Working Group noted that a number
of countries, both developing and developed,
were working on satellite accounts on tourism,
although difficulties were experienced with
different organizations advocating different
approaches. Environmental accounting was another
field where competing methodological approaches
were being encountered.
23. The Working Group noted the work of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) on financial
statistics, especially in the complex field
of financial derivatives where a number of changes
in the 1993 System of National Accounts (SNA)
had recently been agreed on by the Inter-Secretariat
Working Group on National Accounts and the IMF
Balance-of-Payments Committee.
24. The Working Group was informed that an
international symposium on the role of statistics
for sustainable development in Asia and the
Pacific would be held in Tokyo in late November
1997. The topics addressed issues concerning
statistics on human resources development, the
environment, the economy and other related issues.
The Working Group welcomed the fact that ADB
was assisting 11 countries to develop national
frameworks for the development of environmental
data and considering a second phase of the project
to cover seven further countries. The Working
Group heard that ADB was also working on an
environmental quality index.
IV.
THE YEAR 2000 PROBLEM: STRATEGIC ISSUES FOR
NATIONAL STATISTICAL SERVICES
25. The Working Group reviewed the implications
of the year 2000 problem for national statistical
offices on the basis of an oral report from
the secretariat and two documents: STAT/WGSE.10/3,
"The year 2000 problem: some major issues to
consider in the context of statistical services",
contributed by the Census and Statistics Department,
Hong Kong, China, and STAT/WGSE.10/4, "Statistics
New Zealand experiences with year 2000 problem-solving",
contributed by Statistics New Zealand. The year
2000 problem, colloquially known as the Y2K
problem, referred to computer hardware and software,
as well as chips embedded in security systems,
lifts etc, that were built or programmed so
that they used only two digits for the value
of the year, making them fail or produce erratic
results when the year 1999 (i.e., 99) changed
to 2000 (i.e., 00).
26. The Working Group noted several reasons
why the resolution of the Y2K problem posed
extraordinary challenges for all public and
private organizations, including national statistical
offices (NSOs). Those reasons related not only
to the technology itself, but also to managerial
responsibility, organization and monitoring
of corrective action, human and financial resources,
the availability and cost of external expertise,
and the extent to which the organizations were
dependent on each other's computer systems.
In addition, there was a false sense of security
as the established systems were running smoothly,
hiding any fatal problems that would appear
only at the turn of the century. The Working
Group noted that the Y2K problem had already
occurred in some applications that were used
for long-term planning into the year 2000 and
beyond. While in several countries of the region
the mass media had provided a wealth of information
on the Y2K problem, the Working Group expressed
concern that the awareness of the problem was
not sufficiently high in most statistical offices.
27. The Working Group agreed that the preferred
solution to the problem was to retire the non-compliant
hardware and software altogether or replace
them with new systems, but recognized that that
would be expensive and would require careful
planning for the transition. With respect to
hardware acquisition, the Working Group recommended
that NSOs order their Y2K compliant equipment
well in advance so as to allow sufficient time
for its delivery and the migration of operations
into the new environment. Because of the shortage
of purchase budgets and the short time-frame
that was left for the migration of statistical
operations to new environments, many old generation
applications were likely to be still in use
after the turn of the millennium. The fixing
of the "bug" in the existing system sometimes
involved laborious line-by-line checking of
long programs. Almost all applications had to
be tackled individually as automated solutions
existed only for specific cases limited by the
type of hardware, operating system and software.
28. The Working Group noted that there had
been a surge in the demand for programmers who
could fix the program codes written in old computer
languages, such as COBOL. The global trend of
migrating systems from mainframes to personal
computers and client-server environments had
occurred too recently to have phased out all
non-Y2K compliant applications. The Working
Group recognized that applications created by
end-users might pose special problems owing
to insufficient documentation or missing source
codes. It was not at all clear if even those
agencies that were fully seized of the problem
would be able to fix the bugs in all their systems
in time, especially when the program testing
often required as much time as amending the
non-compliant codes. The Working Group noted
with concern the likelihood that despite all
precautions, many Y2K bugs would be discovered
only after the turn of the century. The Working
Group observed that in some offices, the information
technology (IT) departments appeared to rely
strongly on suppliers of hardware and software
to come up with solutions to their Y2K problems
and had not considered the issue as urgent.
29. The Working Group recognized that it was
a managerial challenge to address the Y2K problem
organization-wide. It heard that only the most
advanced NSOs had made organization-wide Y2K
plans and were now implementing them. In those
plans, top management had assigned accountability
for solving the Y2K problem to each department.
Such departments were headed by senior middle
managers. The departments had to report periodically
to a high-level management group on their progress.
At the organization level, a dedicated coordinator
raised awareness of the problem and maintained
inventories and resource bases, including Web
links to Y2K sites on the Internet. The advanced
NSOs relied on in-house solutions rather than
outsourcing the problem solving. The Working
Group was informed that the Australian Bureau
of Statistics, which had 20 million lines of
program code to check, had set up a separate
year 2000 test environment, in which all amended
applications were tested before the respective
departments were given a sign-off for the completion
of the assignments. That procedure was proving
useful, as some applications that were thought
to have been fixed properly had failed.
30. Although the less advanced statistical
offices might eventually not be in a position
to solve the problem by themselves, the Working
Group felt that the heads of those agencies
should not avoid the responsibility of initiating
Y2K risk analysis and should take action to
prevent lurking catastrophes. That responsibility
extended to the NSOs' non-statistical systems,
such as administrative, personnel, procurement
and finance systems, as well as systems that
used embedded chips with date information. The
Working Group agreed in general that in large
organizations, such as national statistical
offices, the IT departments could not alone
be held responsible for solving the Y2K problem.
They did not have the resources to do so; they
also lacked access to departmental and individual
systems. Furthermore, over-reliance on one department
to solve the whole organization's problems contained
a high risk. Therefore, the Working Group recommended
that less advanced offices should employ multidisciplinary
and team approaches adapted from the models
of more advanced offices.
31. The Y2K problem was in no way limited
to NSOs themselves. The Working Group agreed
that it had to be addressed in the context of
the wider statistical environment involving
data suppliers and data users. A risk analysis
was required in the NSOs to assess whether their
data suppliers were able to continue providing
information without interruption and in the
agreed electronic format. The Working Group
observed that hardware and software vendors
had not been keen to give legally binding guarantees
of their products' Y2K compliance. Nevertheless,
it recommended that NSOs include a clause to
that effect in their future procurement contracts.
It was noted that some clients of one NSO had
requested assurances on its own Y2K compatibility;
that NSO was in the process of checking legal
issues involved in such written provision.
32. The Working Group agreed that in most
computer-intensive organizations it was difficult
to estimate how much work was involved in discovering
and fixing the "bug" and in testing the computers
and applications. The cost of fixing the year
2000 problem depended not only on the work-months
required but also on the unit price of the labour,
which was already well above the average cost
of new development and very likely to increase
as the critical date approached. The Working
Group cautioned the countries that the longer
the problem-solving was deferred, the higher
the cost was likely to be. The Working Group
noted the enormous cost estimates made at national
and enterprise levels in some advanced countries
within and outside the region. In contrast,
the cost was likely to be relatively small in
countries which had only very recently started
to develop computerized systems. Also, any new
development in modern environments was likely
to be free of year 2000 problems so long as
the user-defined date formats conformed with
the four-digit year expression. While the accuracy
of the high-end cost estimates could be ascertained
only afterwards, the Working Group felt that
those figures were sufficient to alert those
who had not started addressing the problem.
33. The Working Group recommended that NSOs
identify the implications of failure of any
of their systems in order to prioritize which
of the mission-critical applications should
be fixed first. The less important systems could
be fixed when the time and resources allowed.
The Working Group reminded the NSOs that the
backing up of data and program source codes
to external devices, or to independent and reliable
backup centres, was even more important than
usual as the new millennium approached.
34. Having reviewed the serious technological
and managerial challenges that all countries
in the region were facing within a very short
time, and having compared them to scarce resources
and low awareness, especially in developing
countries, the Working Group requested:
- The secretariat and the
bureau to create awareness through the oncoming
Commission session in April 1998 that the
Y2K problem posed a real, serious and potentially
economically hurting threat to the governments
in the region and that they needed to allocate
resources urgently to tackle the problem;
- The chairperson, secretariat
and the members of the United Nations Statistical
Commission from the region to raise the issue
in the forthcoming session;
- The secretariat to create
awareness of the Y2K problem in the countries
of the region by compiling and disseminating
information through its publications and web
site; such information should use non-technical
language and be disseminated widely;
- The secretariat and the
NSOs to facilitate the sharing of experience
in the region, especially from the governments
and NSOs that had tackled the problem with
some success and comprehensiveness;
- The secretariat to approach
the donor on the possibility of including
the Y2K issue on the agenda of the planned
seminar on IT applications, and hold it in
early 1998;
- The secretariat to investigate
if meetings on the Y2K issue could be held
soon outside the standard project funding
cycle;
- SIAP to investigate if
it could organize a training event in early
1998 on the Y2K issue.
35. Finally, the Working Group cautioned NSOs
not to wait for information on other countries'
experiences, since those countries were far
from completing their own solutions.
V.
THE GENERAL DATA DISSEMINATION SYSTEM AND SPECIAL
DATA DISSEMINATION STANDARD
36. An introduction to the work of IMF on
the development of the data dissemination standards
was provided to the Working Group, based on
the following documents provided by IMF: "From
the SDDS to the GDDS: experience thus far and
work in progress" (STAT/WGSE.10/5), and a background
paper dated May 1997 containing a detailed discussion
draft of the General Data Dissemination System
(GDDS). Secretariat note STAT/WGSE.10/6 was
also considered by the Working Group. The Working
Group heard that the international financial
crises in late 1994 to early 1995 had focused
attention on the importance of comprehensive,
timely, accessible and reliable statistics.
IMF had been asked by its policy-making body
in early 1995 to develop a set of standards
to guide IMF member countries in providing economic
and financial statistics to the public. It had
been recognized from the outset that a single
standard could not be developed that would apply
to all countries and circumstances, so the focus
was placed on devising a basic standard useful
for all countries and a more demanding standard
that would be relevant for countries that sought
access to the international financial markets.
37. The Working Group heard that the latter
standard, the Special Data Dissemination Standard
(SDDS), had been established in April 1996.
Countries that subscribed to the SDDS provided
descriptions, or metadata, of their data and
data dissemination practices and those were
presented on the Internet on the IMF Dissemination
Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). As of mid-November
1997, 43 countries had subscribed to SDDS, of
which 10 were from the ESCAP region. The most
important recent development in SDDS was the
establishment of hyperlinks between the DSBB
and countries' own Internet sites where the
data were maintained. The first review of SDDS
was about to be undertaken by the IMF Executive
Board.
38. It was noted that GDDS was aimed at all
IMF member countries and was in the final stages
of development. While the principal focus of
SDDS was timeliness, that of GDDS was improvement
in data quality in recognition of the fact that,
for many countries, improvement in quality would
have to precede improvement in dissemination
practices. The Working Group noted that, in
addition to the economic and financial data
categories covered by SDDS, GDDS also included
a set of socio-demographic indicators.
39. The Working Group expressed appreciation
of the fact that SDDS and GDDS were in line
with the objectives of the fundamental principles
of official statistics, and that they had been
developed with the aim of having a beneficial
impact on national statistical services. While
welcoming the fact that the existence of such
a prescribed standard and system might generate
additional resources for statistics, the Working
Group felt that emphasis on adhering to the
standard and system might also cause resources
to be diverted away from other statistical activities.
40. The Working Group noted that some 10 members
in the region had subscribed to SDDS, and that
many of them, including statistically advanced
countries, still needed to make additional effort
to meet the stringent standard by the end of
the transition period in December 1998. Some
subscribing countries had been able to mobilize
additional resources for that purpose, as well
as obtain technical assistance from IMF. The
Working Group heard that the transition plans
ranged from relatively minor matters to major
substantive enhancements, including the production
of quarterly national accounts, on which IMF
was holding a further training workshop in April
1998. The Working Group also noted that countries
could occasionally fail to meet the timeliness
requirement, especially in respect of monthly
data, owing to non-technical factors beyond
the control of the statistical agencies. Some
countries did not intend to meet all the specifications
in terms of the periodicity of data, because
of specific national conditions; for example,
it was considered counter-productive by one
country to provide monthly rather than quarterly
data for the consumer price index. The Working
Group noted that SDDS allowed for flexibility
options, but considered that more flexibility
options should be contemplated. It heard that
not one subscribing country had fully complied
with SDDS and welcomed the fact that DSBB allowed
countries to indicate their practices with regard
to the standards, including use of flexibility
options where relevant. It likewise welcomed
the plan of IMF to conduct two more seminars
in the region before the end of the transition
period.
41. The Working Group noted with interest
the beneficial impact experienced by one country
in subscribing to SDDS, which had helped to
reinforce efforts in promoting the use of official
statistics. The use of the DSBB hyperlink to
the national statistical office's home page
had also helped users and the number of "hits"
on the home page had been on the increase. In
other countries SDDS had helped to raise awareness
of official data, and had been recognized as
a set of good practices which it was important
to work towards.
42. The Working Group agreed that the availability
of data according to SDDS could not preclude
financial crises, but felt that more detailed
and timelier relevant data could have a role
in ameliorating their adverse impacts. IMF had
already recognized that an additional item on
net international reserves, yet to be defined
precisely, might be added to SDDS. The Working
Group noted further that the scope of data under
SDDS might not meet the demands of all users,
but would help users in pursuing what they might
need from the relevant sources.
43. The Working Group recognized the importance
of SDDS and particularly GDDS as a type of master
framework for the development of national statistical
systems. GDDS in fact highlighted what were
well-known problems and long-standing shortcomings
common to many statistically less advanced countries.
The Working Group welcomed the possibility that
the advent of GDDS would not only result in
technical assistance for implementation of the
System but also provide a stronger argument
for support to statistical infrastructure generally.
44. The Working Group noted that the draft
GDDS would be considered by the Executive Board
of IMF in December 1997 and urged interested
countries to submit their comments for consideration
before GDDS was finalized. The meeting welcomed
the preliminary plans of IMF to conduct two
seminars on GDDS for countries in the region,
one in July 1998 for larger countries and another
in 1999 for island countries. The Working Group
considered that SDDS and GDDS would have a significant
impact on national statistical services. It
also emphasized the need for coordination among
international agencies in the adoption of statistical
and data dissemination standards and the avoidance
of duplicative requests to countries, which
would increase the already heavy compliance
burden on national statistical offices. Inter-agency
coordination was also necessary in the provision
of technical assistance to countries seeking
to participate in GDDS. The Working Group also
suggested that the topic of SDDS and GDDS should
be brought to the attention of the Economic
and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
at its next session in 1998, to impress on policy
makers the need for additional resources for
national statistical agencies to respond to
SDDS/GDDS requirements, as well to the Statistical
Commission and its Working Group.
VI.
POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUSES
45. The Working Group considered the agenda
item on the basis of the secretariat note STAT/WGSE.10/7,
entitled "The 2000 decade of population and
housing censuses: recent developments", and
a document contributed by the National Statistical
Office of Mongolia entitled "Preparation for
the 2000 Population and Housing Census in Mongolia"
(STAT/WGSE.10/8). In addition, a demonstration
was presented by the representative of the United
States of America on the software Census Design
System (CDS) and Integrated Microcomputer Processing
System (IMPS), version 4.1, produced by the
International Programs Center of the United
States Bureau of the Census. The Working Group
noted that the CDS software was intended to
assist in creating questionnaires, manuals and
tabulation plans and had an interface to IMPS.
Both software applications were developed to
work in the Windows 95 environment, and provided
users with a great measure of flexibility and
options for establishing interfaces with other
word-processing and spreadsheet software.
46. In discussing the revised Principles
and Recommendations for Population and Housing
Censuses, endorsed by the Statistical Commission
in February 1997, the Working Group expressed
its concern about the addition of disability
as a new topic. While recognizing the importance
of disability statistics for social and welfare
programme planning, the Working Group nevertheless
felt that the topic might be too sensitive to
include in a census and raised difficult methodological
and conceptual issues. The Working Group noted
that disability questions had been included
in a number of earlier censuses in the region
and in many cases the resulting data were not
considered to be of sufficient quality to warrant
publication. It also noted that some countries
felt the potential usefulness of disability
information from the census was in providing
a frame for follow-up sample surveys.
47. The Working Group felt it was important
for national statistical offices contemplating
the inclusion of disability questions in their
census to exercise caution and to resist pressure
from users if it were felt that the results
would be unreliable. Given the strong doubts
expressed by the Working Group about the utility
of including the topic of disability in a census,
and given the expected pressure on statistical
offices to adopt the Principles and Recommendations,
several participants questioned the process
which had resulted in its addition to the United
Nations global recommendations. The Working
Group noted that it had not been possible to
organize a regional meeting on preparations
for the 2000 round of population and housing
censuses, which would have provided an opportunity
for the region to discuss census principles
and recommendations.
48. The Working Group emphasized the importance
of focusing on the needs of clients or users
in designing a population census strategy. A
positive change had occurred in the past few
years in terms of moving away from an emphasis
on census inputs and processes towards outputs
and dissemination of results. That change had
brought benefits to users and contributed to
improvements in census quality. As users gained
understanding of censuses, quality was put under
greater scrutiny, for example, by forcing the
results of post-enumeration surveys to be made
public.
49. Several views were presented on the costs
of censuses. The Working Group noted the experience
of some countries which felt that censuses need
not become more expensive over time. With improved
statistical infrastructure and technology, it
was possible to reduce costs and improve timeliness.
The Working Group noted that several countries
were now in a better position to produce census
results quickly. To exploit the possibilities
for reducing costs it was necessary to consider
successive censuses as an ongoing process. Often
the benefits of developments in one census,
for example, in automating data entry or coding
operations, would only be fully realized in
the following census.
50. Other countries felt, however, that it
was difficult to reduce the costs of a census.
While it was possible to spread costs by devolving
some operations from national statistical offices
to local governments or to householders, that
might not necessarily result in a reduction
of the total costs. The Working Group noted
that the Working Party on the Application of
New Technology to Population Data, which had
met recently in Bangkok, had proposed that greater
use could be made of outsourcing some tasks,
which, if followed up properly, might also contribute
to reducing census costs.
51. The Working Group considered the relative
merits of a full census compared with a large
sample survey. The advantage of a large survey
was the possibility it offered for reducing
costs and increasing the number of topics that
could be covered. Only a full census, however,
could provide the benchmark data that countries
needed or meet the demand for data for small
areas and small population groups. It was also
emphasized that the full census provided an
ideal sampling frame, although the Working Group
acknowledged that a large sample could also
serve that purpose. The Working Group noted
that an increasing number of countries were
now combining both full enumeration and sampling
methods simultaneously in censuses, or alternating
between complete censuses and sample censuses,
especially in agriculture, where a complete
census was very expensive.
52. The Working Group voiced a concern that
the external funding for the next census round
might be at a lower level than in the past.
It felt that donor assistance was urgently needed
and noted the recent meetings which had been
organized for potential donors of the censuses
in central Asian countries.
53. The Working Group noted the history of
population and housing censuses in Mongolia.
The census was regarded as a major administrative
and managerial exercise in statistics in the
country, which involved the challenge of dealing
with a large nomadic population. The next population
and housing census would be the eighth in the
country, but the first under the new conditions
of transition to a market economy and the changed
status of the NSO as an independent agency under
the Parliament. The changing circumstances had
brought into focus new concepts for the census
such as the homeless, poverty and classification
of occupations. The need to pay attention to
user needs and to confidentiality of individual
responses also became a concern. The Working
Group was informed that the next population
and housing census had had to be postponed from
1999 to the year 2000. In that census, involvement
of the local governments would be sought and
greater emphasis would be placed on the training
of the staff, including training in the analysis
of census data.
VII.
GENDER STATISTICS
54. The Working Group considered the topic
on the basis of secretariat note STAT/WGSE.10/9
and contributed paper STAT/WGSE.10/10 entitled
"Improving gender statistics in the Philippines".
55. The Working Group noted that the secretariat
had been implementing two projects on gender
statistics, and would continue to encourage
countries in the region to give priority to
the development of gender statistics in specific
areas where data were deficient.
56. The Working Group welcomed the presentation
on the development of gender statistics in the
Philippines, and noted with interest the country's
experience and lessons learned. The impetus
originated from the country's commitment to
support the declarations of a number of international
conferences on women and the subsequent national
legislation and/or mechanisms which had been
formulated.
57. Aimed at generating gender statistics
to monitor implementation of programmes related
to gender issues, the Philippine Statistical
System (PSS) had undertaken several activities
with some significant outputs, including statistical
publications, a database on women and the development
of an indicator system on gender and development.
Current efforts included the generation of statistics
on violence against women and children and on
human development with a gender dimension. A
number of issues and concerns were identified
with emphasis made on the need for statistical
agencies to (a) recognize that it was their
responsibility to support the statistical requirements
of gender-related programmes, (b) prioritize
the types of statistics that should be generated,
(c) develop appropriate methodologies for collecting
data on gender issues/concerns, and (d) institutionalize
the production of gender statistics. It was
emphasized that the generation of gender statistics
was not simply the disaggregation of data by
sex but the generation of statistics on identified
gender concerns.
58. The Working Group heard that some countries
in the region had attempted to collect data
on gender-sensitive issues, sometimes as part
of a set of social indicators. By using official
and unofficial data from various sources, several
statistical publications had been produced and
were scheduled to be revised in the near future.
59. The Working Group also heard that many
countries had encountered similar problems such
as inadequacy of concepts and definitions of
some gender-based statistics; the need to gender-sensitize
staff prior to collecting data; unwillingness
of victims of domestic violence to relate their
experience; difficulty of measuring the gender
dimension of certain economic indicators etc.
It was also noted that a number of countries,
such as Australia, Japan and the Philippines,
had conducted time-use surveys on a nationwide
scale or in small areas and that their experience
could be shared with others.
60. The difficulties in evaluating the economic
contribution of women, especially in the informal
sector, were noted by the Working Group. In
some countries, economic activities were not
always recognized as such by women themselves.
The Working Group heard that the monetary valuation
of unpaid work had been attempted in more advanced
countries such as Japan. Action plans for measuring
paid and unpaid work and for classification
of the work of women had been formulated in
some countries, with financial and technical
support from international agencies such as
UNDP as well as from bilateral sources.
61. The Working Group urged SIAP to review
and include more modules on gender statistics
in its training programmes, particularly in
methodology and analysis. The secretariat was
likewise urged to seek financial support from
the donor in order to complete the printing
of the set of 16 profiles on women produced
under the project on improving statistics on
women in the ESCAP region.
62. The Working Group recognized the importance
of public awareness of gender issues in moving
towards gender equity, and noted that user-producer
meetings on the utilization of gender statistics
could help to raise public awareness.
VIII.
ISSUES IN IMPLEMENTING THE 1993 SYSTEM OF NATIONAL
ACCOUNTS
63. The Working Group considered the agenda
item on the basis of secretariat document STAT/WGSE.10/11
entitled "Implementation in countries of the
ESCAP region" and document STAT/WGSE.10/12 entitled
"Implementation of the 1993 SNA in Thailand"
prepared and presented to the meeting by the
National Economic and Social Development Board
of Thailand (NESDB).
64. It was noted that the full 1993 SNA could
be implemented on an incremental basis, in terms
of data availability and analytical requirements.
The different phases served conveniently to
represent the different levels of SNA implementation,
though countries did not have to proceed sequentially
through the "milestones" developed by the Inter-Secretariat
Working Group on National Accounts (ISWGNA).
The Working Group noted that countries in the
region which until recently had been compiling
their national accounts based on the earlier
versions of SNA, or on the System of Balances
of the National Economy (MPS), had begun to
pursue activities towards implementing the 1993
SNA.
65. The Working Group recognized the efforts
of Thailand in commencing implementation of
the 1993 SNA even though the existing compilation
was based on the 1953 version. In responding
to the demands of policy-making, input-output
tables, flow of funds, and regional and provincial
accounts had been compiled incorporating elements
of the 1968 SNA. The Working Group also noted
with interest the assessment by NESDB of national
accounts compilation based on the milestones
recommended by ISWGNA, showing the phases vis-à-vis
what was wanted and what already existed, and
indicating the areas where improvements were
sufficient or where new complementary data sets
were needed.
66. The Working Group heard with interest
the experience of economies in transition in
implementing the 1993 SNA. It noted that the
change to a market economy necessitated changes
in the original statistical data collection
system, and that additional data were required
to augment those originally needed for the compilation
of accounts based on the MPS. For example, price
statistics presented a problem since prices
had often been held constant in the planned
economy, while some services had been provided
free. The Working Group noted some problems
faced by the independent states of the Former
Soviet Union in their efforts to compile the
national accounts. It also appreciated the efforts
of the Interstate Statistical Committee of the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in
providing assistance for building up the capacity
for national accounts compilation in CIS countries.
It heard with interest the progression in one
country from MPS to an SNA-based economic accounting
system and recently to adopting the 1993 SNA.
67. The Working Group recognized the practical
difficulties in collecting credible data on
illegal economic activities, activities in the
hidden economy and on the informal sector. It
noted the experience of some countries which
made use of indirect methods to estimate those
data. It also took note of the lack of information
and practical difficulties in measuring transactions
of Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households
(NPISH), which were currently included with
those of households, as those sectors engaged
in both non-market and market activities.
68. The Working Group heard that some countries
had reservations on the capability of the countries
in the region to achieve full implementation
of the 1993 SNA in view of the practical difficulties
in implementing several of its recommendations.
In that regard, a call was made to review the
recommendations of the 1993 SNA concerning the
inclusion of illegal activities and to incorporate
changes where necessary. The Working Group was
informed that the ISWGNA, which had been responsible
for producing the 1993 SNA, had remained active
in responding to outstanding and emerging issues
it had not fully dealt with. In particular the
ISWGNA had developed procedures for dealing
with changes proposed in the 1993 SNA; it would
deliberate on the correct treatment of transactions
of types that had recently become important
in the economy, and would review those on which
no agreement among the experts could be arrived
at during the revision process. The Working
Group noted, for example, that financial derivatives
which had first surfaced in the early 1980s
had since become important and had changed in
character. The ISWGNA had recently resolved
that financial derivatives were to be treated
as financial assets, and that transactions related
to them should be recorded in the Financial
Accounts. An additional asset category for financial
derivatives would be included in the asset classification.
Those changes would be reflected in both SNA
and the balance of payments.
69. The Working Group noted the efforts of
the countries in the compilation of quarterly
and regional/provincial accounts and appreciated
the practical problems encountered in allocating
value added to economic activities which cut
across geographical boundaries. It noted similar
problems in estimating quarterly transactions
for which there was a shortage of basic data.
The sharing of experience among countries would
help facilitate such compilations. The Working
Group also heard apprehensions on the implication
of additional activities which could overload
the capacity of the national statistical system,
to the detriment of the quality of national
accounts statistics.
70. The Working Group expressed appreciation
for the various types of assistance provided
by ADB, IMF, SIAP and other multilateral and
bilateral agencies with the aim of strengthening
the capacity of the countries in the compilation
of national accounts, and looked forward to
the continuation of such assistance. The secretariat's
advisory services in national accounts and the
forthcoming series of subregional workshops
were similarly strongly appreciated and supported.
The Working Group also welcomed the offer of
Japan to provide the advisory services of national
accounts experts through the technical cooperation
scheme of the Japan International Cooperation
Agency (JICA).
IX.
PRICE STATISTICS
71. The Working Group considered the agenda
item on the basis of document STAT/WGSE.10/13,
"The CPI and other price statistics developments
in Australia", prepared by the Australian Bureau
of Statistics. The Working Group noted with
appreciation the quality of the paper presented,
and keen interest was expressed in obtaining
the documentation referred to in it.
72. The Working Group noted that measurement
of inflation was a crucial input expected of
statisticians for policy-making, but statisticians
were faced with problems in the absence of an
internationally accepted set of concepts and
definitions to underpin inflation measurements.
The Working Group heard with interest about
the review of the Australian Consumer Price
Index (CPI) undertaken by the Australian Bureau
of Statistics. It also noted the development
of an analytical framework for measuring inflation
based on a "market transactions" approach defined
by the interaction of demand and supply factors
in the market place.
73. The Working Group noted that the analytical
framework showed alternative but complementary
views of the economy through different markets.
The framework showed transactions on domestic
final purchases divided into current consumption
and capital expenditure, and transactions of
other purchases into labour and intermediate
inputs. The price index of domestic final purchases
would serve as a basis for an economy-wide inflation
measure. One of its components, the Household
Consumption Purchases Price Index, was analogous
to the present CPI but excluded mortgage interest
and consumer credit charges, as well as payments
for goods and services purchased by households
at non-market-determined prices. It was a priority
for development, being the major component (about
two thirds) of the domestic final purchases
index. Other indexes within the analytical framework
included the labour cost index, the export price
index, and producer price indexes, which tried
to eliminate multiple counting of commodities
flowing through different stages of the production
process.
74. The Working Group noted that though the
CPI had been compiled regularly by a large number
of countries over the past few decades, and
had been serving many important purposes, technical
problems persisted. Those included the treatment
of changes in the quality of goods over time;
the treatment of services subsidized by the
government and subsequently subject to a change
in pricing policy, such as education and health
services in many countries; the treatment of
rent and owner-occupied housing services; and
the treatment of interest on mortgages and consumer
credit. It noted that the accuracy of the CPI
using the Laspeyres formula might need to be
reviewed in view of the impact of changes in
household income and of the substitution effect.
The Working Group noted that though the publication
on CPIs produced by ILO provided guidance on
some of the technical issues, circumstances
in different countries dictated the need to
adapt international standards to suit local
conditions.
75. The Working Group noted that there were
variations in the calculation of annual changes
in price indexes, which could result in substantially
different measures for inflation; it suggested
that standardization of methodology in that
and other respects would improve comparability
across countries. The Working Group noted with
interest that some countries had succeeded in
cutting costs of CPI compilation by restricting
the number of collection centres without affecting
the quality of the index, since studies had
shown that price movements in other centres
were quite similar.
76. The Working Group heard with interest
the progress in the evaluation of the International
Comparison Programme (ICP), which had been requested
by the Statistical Commission. It noted that
the report prepared by a consultant was under
review and would be presented to the Working
Group on International Statistical Programmes
and Coordination in February 1998. The Working
Group also noted that the secretariat hoped
to secure financial support for conducting the
next ICP comparison for the ESCAP region for
the reference year 1999. It expressed appreciation
to the World Bank for providing the secretariat
with both technical and financial support, and
hoped that the 1999 comparison results would
be produced quickly, since the lack of timeliness
had been a major drawback in previous ICP phases.
The Working Group recalled its discussion on
SDDS and noted that ICP results would be a very
useful alternative to measuring the real GDP
of countries in the face of exchange rate volatility
among countries in the region. It expressed
concern about the data that might appear in
the forthcoming World Development Report,
which compared gross domestic product per capita
based mainly on currency exchange rates over
time.
X.
REVIEW OF THE PROGRAMME OF WORK IN STATISTICS,
1998-1999
77. The Working Group had before it secretariat
note STAT/WGSE.10/14. The note provided information
on the implementation of the programme of work
in statistics for 1996-1997, and on the work
programme for 1998-1999 which had been approved
by the Economic and Social Commission for Asia
and the Pacific and was currently under consideration
by the General Assembly. The Working Group was
informed that for the biennium 2000-2001, the
secretariat would be expected to draft the programme
of work before the next session of the Committee
in 1998, and therefore it was important for
the Working Group to provide its suggestions
on the approach and the priorities that the
secretariat might employ.
78. Concerning the programme of work in statistics,
1998-1999, the Working Group noted the suggestion
of the bureau that there was a need to give
more attention to poverty measurement and to
facilitate participation of countries from the
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