SUMMARY

KEY FINDINGS

1.

INTRODUCTION

1.1

Objective and Scope

1.2

Study Approach

1.3

Modelling Approach

1.4

Report Structure and Contents

2.

CHANGES IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND SHIPPING

2.1

Changes in International Trade

2.2

Competition and Regulation of Liner Shipping

2.3

Shipping Line Response

2.4

Implications for Ports

3.

CONTAINER TRADE GROWTH

3.1

Background

3.2

Looking Forward

3.3

Economic Assumptions

3.4

Producing the Container Forecasts

3.5

Global Container Forecasts

3.6

Geographical Distribution of Container Volumes

4.

TRADE STRUCTURE

4.1

Changing Nature of Asian Trade

4.2

Asia – North America

4.3

Asia – Europe

4.4

Intra-Asia

4.5

Minor Routes

5.

THE SCENARIOS

5.1

The Issue

5.2

The Scenarios

6.

FLEET REQUIREMENTS

6.1

Estimation Procedure

6.2

Total Fleet Structure

6.3

Mainline Routes

7.

CONTAINER PORT VOLUMES

7.1

From Container Flows to Port Volumes

7.2

Empty Containers

7.3

Container Port Volumes: World and ESCAP Region

7.4

Container Volumes by Subregion and Economy

8.

PATTERNS OF TRANS-SHIPMENT

8.1

Modelling Restriction and Biases

8.2

Trans-Shipment Volumes – Comparison of Scenarios

8.3

The Major Trans-Shipment Hubs

9.

CONTAINER BERTH REQUIREMENTS

10.

POLICY GUIDELINES

10.1

Preparing for a Deregulated and Liberalized Environment

10.2

Identifying Niche Markets

10.3

Prioritization of Port Development

10.4

Private Sector Partnership

10.5

Emphasis on Productivity

10.6

Intermodal Integration