I. Global economic developments and implications for the ESCAP region

Overview

Recent global macroeconomic trends

Trade and capital flows

Implications for the ESCAP region

Concluding observations

II. Macroeconomic performance, issues and policies

A regional overview

Developing economies of the ESCAP region

Developed countries of the region

III. Social security and safety nets

Introduction

Concepts and modalities

Social security and safety nets against unemployment

Income security for old age

Health security for workers and employees

Selected policy issues and directions for the future

Annex. Selected social security and safety net programmes in the Asian and Pacific region

IV. Monitoring and surveillance: the theoretical underpinnings

Introduction

Surveillance and monitoring

Early warning systems

The way forward

Annex. Early warning systems for currency crises: recent research

V. Review of mechanisms

International Monetary Fund

Bank for International Settlements

Institute of International Finance

Credit rating agencies

Other review exercises

Trends in surveillance mechanisms: summary and conclusion

Annex V.1. Progress in strengthening the international financial architecture

Annex V.2. International codes and standards for financial markets

VI. Improving and complementing existing surveillance mechanisms

Lessons on surveillance from the Asian crisis

Regional modalities for complementing global surveillance mechanisms

Choice of leading indicators

Final remarks

VII. Recommendations

Role for ESCAP in contributing to monitoring and surveillance mechanisms

VIII. Source material for economic and financial monitoring and surveillance

Boxes

I.1. Globalization after the Seattle debacle

II.1. Debt restructuring in selected economies affected by the crisis

III.1. Macroeconomic implications of social security

IV.1. Identifying crises

IV.2. Conference Board leading indicators of economic activity

VI.1. The role of the Asian Development Bank in economic monitoring after the crisis

Tables

I.1. Selected indicators of global economic conditions, 1996-2000

I.2. External trade of selected economies, 1997-1999

I.3. Gross private financing to emerging market economies, 1996-1999

II.1. Selected economies of the ESCAP region: rates of economic growth and inflation, 1998-2002

II.2. Selected least developed countries of the ESCAP region: growth rates, 1996-1999

II.3. Selected least developed countries of the ESCAP region: summary of macroeconomic indicators, 1996-1999

II.4. Selected least developed countries of the ESCAP region: merchandise exports and imports in United States dollar value and their rates of growth, 1996-1999

II.5. Selected Pacific island economies: growth rates, 1996-1999

II.6. Selected Pacific island economies: summary of macroeconomic indicators, 1996-1999

II.7. Selected Pacific island economies: merchandise exports and imports in United States dollar value and their rates of growth, 1996-1999

II.8. North and Central Asia: growth rates, 1996-1999

II.9. North and Central Asia: merchandise exports and imports in United States dollar value and their rates of growth, 1996-1999

II.10. Selected South and South-West Asian economies: growth rates, 1996-1999

II.11. Selected South and South-West Asian economies: summary of macroeconomic indicators, 1996-1999

II.12. Selected South and South-West Asian economies: merchandise exports and imports in United States dollar value and their rates of growth, 1996-1999

II.13. Selected South-East Asian economies: growth rates, 1996-1999

II.14. Selected South-East Asian economies: summary of macroeconomic indicators, 1996-1999

II.15. Selected South-East Asian economies: merchandise exports and imports in United States dollar value and their rates of growth 1996-1999

II.16. Selected East and North-East Asian economies: growth rates, 1996-1999

II.17. Selected East and North-East Asian economies: summary of macroeconomic indicators, 1996-1999

II.18. Selected East and North-East Asian economies: merchandise exports and imports in United States dollar value and their rates of growth, 1996-1999

II.19. Developed countries of the ESCAP region: major macroeconomic indicators, 1996-1999

II.20. Developed economies of the ESCAP region: merchandise exports and imports in United States dollar value and their rates of growth, 1996-1999

III.1. Unemployment rates in selected developing economies in East and South-East Asia affected by the crisis, 1990-1998

III.2. Percentage distribution of the economically active population in the non-agricultural sector by status in selected countries of the ESCAP region, various years

III.3. Old age dependency ratio of selected economies in the ESCAP region, 1980-2015

IV.1. Leading indicators of financial crises, 1996

IV.2. Performance of early warning indicators

V.1. Purposes of IMF surveillance

V.2. Indicators used in Public Information Notices

V.3. Ratings for three Asian countries during the crisis

V.4. Standard & Poor's sovereign ratings methodology profile

V.5. Modalities of global surveillance/monitoring systems

V.6. Monitoring of developing countries or areas of the ESCAP region

VI.1. Significant leading indicators

VI.2. Indicators under a stress classification

FIGURES

I.1. Changes in world primary commodity prices, 1996-1999

II.1. Index of exchange rates of selected least developed countries, 1997-1999

II.2. Index of exchange rates of selected Pacific island economies, 1997-1999

II.3. Inflation rates of selected North and Central Asian economies, 1996-1999

II.4. Index of exchange rates of selected North and Central Asian economies, 1998-1999

II.5. Index of exchange rates of selected South and South-West Asian economies, 1997-1999

II.6. Index of exchange rates of selected South-East Asian economies, 1997-1999

II.7. Index of stock markets of selected South-East Asian economies, 1997-1999

II.8. Index of exchange rates of selected East and North-East Asian economies, 1997-1999

II.9. Index of stock markets of selected East and North-East Asian economies, 1997-1999

II.10. Index of exchange rates of developed economies in the ESCAP region, 1997-1999