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Agricultural Trade Reform and Poverty in the Asia-Pacific: A Survey and Some New Results
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| Author(s):
John Gilbert
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| Economic Sector(s):
(1) Global, regional and multisectoral economic and social development strategies and policies; (2) agriculture, forestry and fisheries policies and planning; (3) Global trade policies |
| ESCAP Reference
No.: WP/08/01 |
| Division/Office:
Macroeconomic Policy and Development |
| Published Date:
September 2008 |
| Country:
{Non-country Specific Publication} |
| Hard Copy Price:
Free
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| We review the literature on the relationship between agricultural trade policy reform
and poverty, and the results of recent detailed simulation studies applied to economies in the ESCAP region. We then use the GTAP model to evaluate the possible impacts of the most recently proposed modality for agricultural trade reform under Doha on the economies of the ESCAP region. We compare the results to a benchmark of comprehensive agricultural trade reform. We find that the current proposal does not result in significant cuts to applied tariffs, and has very modest overall effects on welfare. Poverty in the region would decrease overall, but the distribution across countries is uneven. By contrast, comprehensive agricultural trade reform, with developing economies fully engaged, tends to benefit most economies in the region in the aggregate, and to consistently lower poverty. |
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1. INTRODUCTION
2. AGRICULTURAL TRADE REFORMS UNDER DOHA
3. POVERTY LINKS OF TRADE REFORM
4. OVERVIEW OF CGE MODELING
5. SURVEY OF RECENT ANALYSES
5.1 CHINA
5.2 INDONESIA
5.3 PHILIPPINES
5.4 BANGLADESH
5.5 INDIA
6. NEW RESULTS
6.1 METHODOLOGY
6.2 AGGREGATE WELFARE
6.3 POVERTY
6.4 ADJUSTMENT
7. CONCLUDING COMMENTS
REFERENCES
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