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2011
 
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Regional Shipping and Port Development: Container Traffic Forecast 2007 Update


Author(s): Transport Division (TD)
Economic Sector(s): (1) Transport policies and planning; (2) Water transport and shipping
ESCAP Reference No.: ST/ESCAP/2484
Division/Office: Transport
Published Date: 2007
Country: {Non-country Specific Publication}
Hard Copy Price: Online Copy Only


UNESCAP undertakes container traffic forecast studies regularly utilizing the Maritime Policy Planning Models (MPPM) developed and maintained by the Transport and Tourism Division of UNESCAP in collaboration with the Korea Maritime Institute. The main objective of the studies is to provide a planning context for decisions facing governments, shipping lines and port authorities in the region. The MPPM is being expanded to include intermodal aspects of container transport and this study made an attempt to provide rough estimates of intermodal container traffic particularly to and from landlocked countries in the region.

Chapter 1 provides an introduction to the report. Chapter 2 discusses some of the major changes that have occurred in the container shipping and port environment over the last decades. Chapter 3 discusses the economic growth assumptions that underpin the forecasts, and the impact of these on expected container volumes. In Chapter 4 an attempt is made with limited available data to provide inferential estimates of future container volumes of landlocked countries in the ESCAP region.

Chapter 5 is devoted to discussion of the model`s forecasts on structural changes in trade patterns. Chapter 6 examines the implications of changes in trade for the volume of containers that will need to be handled in the ports of the ESCAP region. Finally, the report concludes with estimates of port facilities required to meet projected container handling demand, and the associate investment implications in Chapter 7.




Page

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

i

1.

INTRODUCTION

1

 

1.1

Objective and Scope

 

1.2

The MPPM Suite

 

 

1.3

Report Structure and Contents

 

2.

CHANGES IN INTERNATIONAL CONTAINER SHIPPING AND PORT ENVIRONMENT

3

 

2.1

Changes in International Container Trade

 

 

 

2.1.1

Increasing Role of International Trade

 

 

 

2.1.2

Growth of Container Trades

 

 

 

2.1.3

Geographical Diversification of Container Trade Growth

 

 

 

2.1.4

Relative Container Trade Intensity

 

 

2.2

Competition Regulation of Liner Shipping

 

 

 

2.2.1

EU/United States

 

 

 

2.2.2

Australia

 

 

 

2.2.3

China

 

 

 

2.2.4

Indonesia

 

 

 

2.2.5

Japan

 

 

 

2.2.6

New Zealand

 

 

 

2.2.7

Republic of Korea

 

 

 

2.2.8

Singapore

 

 

 

2.2.9

Thailand

 

 

2.3

Increasing Ship Size

 

 

2.4

Financial Performance

 

 

2.5

Changes in Global Liner Shipping Operations

 

 

 

2.5.1

Increasing Consolidation

 

 

 

2.5.2

Structural Change in Shipping Service

 

 

2.6

Rising Fuel Prices

 

 

2.7

Reducing Emissions

 

 

2.8

Port Development

 

 

 

2.8.1

Private Investment

 

 

 

2.8.2

India

 

 

 

2.8.3

China

 

 

 

2.8.4

Vietnam

 

 

 

2.8.5

Middle East and Central Asia

 

 

2.9

Terminal Operations

 

3.

CONTAINER TRADE GROWTH

30

 

3.1

Economic Assumptions

 

 

3.2

Global Container Forecasts

 

 

3.3

Geographical Distribution of Container Volumes

 

 

3.4

ESCAP Trade

 

4.

LANDLOCKED COUNTRIES

40

 

4.1

The special situation of landlocked countries

 

 

4.2

Estimated future container volumes of ESCAP landlocked countries

 

5.

TRADE STRUCTURE

43

 

5.1

Changing Nature of Global Container Trade

 

 

5.2

Asia-North America

 

 

5.3

Asia-Europe

 

 

5.4

Intra-ESCAP

 

 

5.5

Minor Routes

 

6.

CONTAINER PORT VOLUMES  

49

 

6.1

From Container Flows to Port Volumes

 

 

6.2

Empty Containers

 

 

6.3

Container Port Volumes: World and ESCAP Region

 

 

6.4

Patterns of Transshipment

 

7.

CONTAINER BERTH  REQUIREMENTS

59

REFERENCES

63




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