Malaysia

Briefing Notes for the Launch in Kuala Lumpur, March 2009

Growth performance and prospects

  • The rate of economic growth dropped from 6.3% in 2007 to 4.6% in 2008.
  • After declining steadily from 7.4% in the first quarter (year-on-year) to 4.7% in the third quarter, the rate of growth fell abruptly in the fourth quarter to 0.1%.
  • Exports dropped significantly towards the end of 2008: -2.6% in October (year-onyear), -4.9% in November, -14.9% in December, and -27.8% in January 2009.
  • The rate of growth of private consumption remained high in 2008 (8.4%) but declined gradually over the year, from 11.7% in the first quarter to 5.3% in the fourth quarter.
  • The rate of growth of gross fixed investment dropped abruptly from 3.1% in the third quarter of 2008 (year-on-year) to -10.2% in the fourth quarter, averaging 1.1% for the year.
  • Government consumption increased significantly from 6.6% in 2007 to 11.6% in 2008, helping moderate the impact of the fall in exports and investment on the GDP.
  • As of the beginning of March, growth was forecast to be around 0% in 2009, a similar level than in 2001 (0.5%).

Inflation, monetary policy and exchange rate developments

  • Reflecting dramatic price increases in international commodity markets in the first half of 2008, Malaysia’s inflation rate increased from an average of 2% in 2007 to 4.9% in the second quarter of 2008 (year-on-year) and 8.4% in the third quarter.
  • However, inflation decelerated towards the end of 2008, as the price of crude oil and other commodities plunged, reaching 3.9% in February 2009.
  • As commodity price inflation eased and demand for Malaysian exports contracted, the central bank cut its policy rate 25 basis points (to 3.25%) in November, 75 basis points in January 2009, and 50 basis points (to 2%) in February.
  • The combination of drops in exports and cuts in interest rates contributed to a depreciation of the exchange rate from an average of 3.2 ringgit per dollar in the first half of the 2008 to 3.6 in the fourth quarter.
  • Malaysia held $85b in foreign exchange reserves as of the end of February 2009, down from $111 billion a year before.

Fiscal situation and perspectives

  • The budget deficit increased from 3.2% of the GDP in 2007 to 5.1% in 2008.
  • In November 2009 the Government announced a stimulus package of RM 7 billion ($1.9 billion, 1% of the GDP) including the following elements:
    • Investment funds to promote strategic industries and high-speed broadband (RM 1.9 billion).
    • Small-scale projects such as village roads, school repairs (RM 1.6 billion).
    • Affordable housing (RM 1.5 billion).
    • Education and skills training programmes (RM 1 billion).
    • Public transport and military facilities (RM 1 billion).
  • In March the Government unveiled a second, and much larger, stimulus package of RM 60 billion ($16.2 billion, 8.6% of GDP) to be implemented over 2009 and 2010.