Ministerial Conference on
Environment and Development
in Asia and the Pacific 2000
Kitakyushu, Japan 31 August - 5 September 2000
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Natural Disasters volcanoes | cyclones | vulnerability | prevention | droughts |
Volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and tsunamis Melanesia, Guam, and the Mariana Islands are part of the “Pacific Rim of Fire”, a region of severe seismic activity. The impact of these disasters can be highly localised, but severe. For example, on the 17th of July, 1998, a series of tidal waves caused by an offshore earthquake struck the North west of Papua New Guinea in the Sandaun Province. The waves swept over low, sandy islets at Sissano about 30 kilometres west of Aitape. Whole villages vanished and thousands of people were killed or injured. The sub-region’s tropical and sub-tropical climate is punctuated by climatic extremes; cyclones, floods and drought. These extremes have far reaching impacts on land-use, and serious environmental consequences – especially when combined with unsustainable development practices. Cyclones are the most prominent and wide spread natural disaster in the Pacific. With the exception of equatorial islands, between 5 degrees North and South of the equator, all Pacific islands have been subjected to cyclones.
Data for the last 150 years indicate cyclones are more frequent in the western and central Pacific, both north and south of the equator than in the eastern Pacific. The Fiji group experienced 136 cyclones between 1880 and 1997. A similar number were recorded in Vanuatu. Damage to crops, vegetation, structures and wildlife (especially birds) increases exponentially with wind speed (damage of 180km/hr wind is 4 times that of 90km/hr wind). Severe tropical storms are accompanied by massive rainfall and the low pressure may cause the sea to rise as much as 2 metres. Flooding, coastal inundation, and land erosion, destruction of housing and gardens, loss of vegetation, pollution of water supplies and destruction of coral reefs and sea grass beds are natural impacts of tropical cyclones. Hurricanes are especially damaging to low-lying atoll islets. Waves from Hurricane Ofa, for example, swept over the islands of the Tokelau atolls, washed away topsoil, salted the land so crops would not grow, and contaminated the ground water making it unfit to drink. Between January and April of 1983, five cyclones struck French Polynesia; more in two months than in the previous 150 years. All the low islands of the Tuamotus and Societies were damaged. Sea level rose 4 to 5 meters and waves were 8 to 10 meters high. Many villages on the atolls were totally submerged. Some atoll villages completely disappeared. The water lens was salted, all boats were destroyed, all fishing equipment and pearl aquaculture rafts were destroyed. Big blocks of coral were torn from the reefs and thrown onto the reef flats. Vegetation was severely damaged and 50% of the coconut trees were blown down (Gabrie et al 1995). Vulnerability to DisastersThe small size of the islands, their remoteness and limited financial resources plus poor economic and social decisions resulted in increased ecosystem and human vulnerability to disasters. The peoples inhabiting the Pacific islands for the past three to four thousand years have shown remarkable resilience to natural and environmental disasters, but the steady degrading of traditional coping measures makes islanders and the island ecosystems more vulnerable to disasters. Hurricanes, for example, have always been a normal part of the environment of Pacific people and traditional societies coped with them very well. In the past, islanders whose gardens were harmed by hurricanes had traditional food reserves, forest gardens that still provided food, and abundant protein from the coral reefs. The same people today find their gardens are destroyed, the reefs are destroyed, their homes are destroyed, and their drinking water polluted. Coral reefs and coastal ecosystems were also resilient to hurricanes and recovered quickly. But poor farming and logging practices resulted in massive erosion during storm conditions and this, in turn, polluted water supplies and deposited massive loads of silt on the coral reefs. In addition, small gardens that once were protected by trees are now large unprotected gardens that are totally destroyed by hurricanes. Soil lost from commercial farms and pasture land during severe storms makes the gardens themselves less resilient and less productive. In Pohnpei FSM, for example, large scale clearing of upland forest for commercial kava plantations resulted in massive landslides after a severe cyclone in 1997. The landslides caused loss of life, the plantations, and damaged coastal coral reef communities. Over-harvesting of coastal fish and invertebrates removed important sources of suitable nutrients from coral reefs and sewage from urban areas destabilised near-shore coral communities making these vital ecosystems less able to withstand or recover from the waves and rain of hurricanes. Hurricanes, thus, have moved from annual events to disaster status because of unsustainable human behaviour. The most vulnerable communities are impoverished peoples occupying marginal environments (such as low-lying filled mangrove swamps, urban areas of atoll islets, or steep-sloped mountain areas), with high population density and dependence on a single source of sustenance. For example, the 1998 drought in the Marshall Islands required the installation of large desalination plants to meet the drinking water needs of the densely packed urban populace on Majoro and Ebeye. The same drought required massive importation of food and supplies to the highlands of PNG where overpopulation and reliance on coffee and other commercial crops lowered the resilience of the communities. Fortunately, such communities are still uncommon in the Pacific islands compared to other parts of the Asia Pacific Region. Action for mitigating natural disasters in the Pacific Islands Hurricanes, floods, droughts, tsunamis, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions do considerable damage to sustainable development plans. The economic costs can bankrupt an island community. While nobody can avert natural disasters, the impacts can be greatly minimised by (i) accurate and timely predicting when and where disasters will strike; (ii) rapid emergency response to victims; and (iii) land use planning to reduce vulnerability. Advances in the first two areas have been spectacular in the Pacific sub-Region. Prior to the 1940’s disasters struck with no warning. Weather forecasters could only predict the occurrence and path of hurricanes, for example, if there happened to be ships at sea to report them, or the regional network of weather forecasters that communicated by radio were able to report on hurricanes passing close to them. Following World War II improvements in communications, increased shipping and air traffic, increased the ability to provide early storm warnings. Radar, developed during the war, gave weather centres the ability to accurately track storms within a hundred miles of some weather stations. Weather satellites completely changed weather forecasting. Meteorologists now have real-time views of weather systems anywhere on the planet. All island weather stations now have access to accurate weather charts and weather warnings. Telephones and broadcast radio enables national meteorologists to communicate storm warnings to everyone well in advance of a major storm. All Pacific island nations now follow a common code of hurricane alerts, and provide radio instructions to the public on preparedness procedures. Within the last five years, as computer models of the atmosphere improved, meteorologists have become increasingly accurate in predicting hurricane formation and tracks, often delivering explicit information on storm track, wind velocities, expected sea level rise and wave heights for three days in advance. SPREP hosts the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) sub-regional Office. SPREP and WMO the have collaborated in providing eight Pacific island countries with equipment to receive low-orbit weather satellite images. SPREP has also provided real-time computer displays to national meteorological services that show readings from weather monitoring stations. SPREP also organises the Regional Meteorological Service Director’s Meetings to review the status of SPREP’s regional meteorological and climate programmes and discuss new projects. Better prediction of storms reduces loss of life and damage to property and enables governments to mobilise emergency response teams to assist communities with food, medicine, and shelter. Weather scientists have been able to predict drought thanks to a greater understanding of the El Nino event in the Central Pacific and a synergetic, kilometre high internal wave in the Antarctic ocean thermocline. In the past decade improvements in satellite imagery and computer modelling have enabled scientists to directly observe ocean warming and currents and the response of the atmosphere over the entire Pacific; in fact over the entire planet. This incredible sensory capability gives meteorologists predictive tools to forecast climate conditions for months in advance. Governments are now using this information to adjust agricultural projections. Vulcanologists are becoming increasingly adept at predicting when volcanoes will erupt and sometimes when violent earthquakes will happen. When the volcano exploded in Rabaul, PNG, in 1994, for example, the community was warned and evacuated long in advance. Most possessions, including vehicles and valuable belongings, were saved.
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