SPACE VISION 21: THE FUTURE OF SPACE TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATIONS IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

A. Introduction 
B. Regional space technology developments and applications since 1994 

1. Progress in  spacecraft, payloads, and launch vehicles
2. Progress in applying space technologies to benefit Asia and the Pacific

1. Atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial observations using space platforms
2. Satellite-based communications, broadcasting, and navigation/positioning systems
3. Space science and solar-terrestrial applications
4. Satellite-based education and training

1. Opening access to space technology development and applications
2. Increasing the benefits of space technology development and applications

1. Integrating national, regional and international space technology applications
2. Developing  benefits of space technology applications through partnerships among government, academic and industry sectors

A. Introduction

1. In the context of Asia and the Pacific, space technology development and applications must be viewed both retrospectively and prospectively to appreciate the Space Vision 21 presented herein. This vision looks into the new millennium at potential directions in development and applications of space technology that may benefit countries in the region and the world.

2. The concept paper prepared by the high-level group of experts in December 1997 is the basis for the present document. The current status of space technology and applications discussed briefly herein is described more fully in Space Technology and Applications for Sustainable Development in Asia and the Pacific: Compendium 1999.

3. The section on near-term (1999-2004) prospects for space technology and applications highlights several aspects of satellite-based activities that are planned. Among these applications are the following: climate, ocean and land surface observations; operational meteorology and natural disaster reduction; environmental and natural resource development; direct broadcasting and improved navigation/positioning; space science and solar-terrestrial applications; and education and training.

4. The section on longer-term (beyond 2005) space technology examines some factors that will affect the region in the twenty-first century. The main challenge is how to ensure equitable access to space technology development and applications throughout the region, so that these may be applied fairly and efficiently to help to meet the challenge of sustainable development.

5. Like other sophisticated new technologies, space applications typically display high entry costs in terms of the financial and human resources needed. Without help, many countries in the region, especially those with smaller economies, would struggle to meet these entry costs. Uncoordinated space development by those countries that can afford it often results in wasteful duplication and in lost opportunities in terms of optimum regional outcomes.

6. The section on longer-term approaches assesses some benefits and risks vis-à-vis the integration of national, regional and international programmes for space technology development and applications. It also considers how to share more effectively the development of space technologies through partnerships among the governmental, academic and industrial sectors.

B. Regional space technology developments and applications since 1994

7. The reference point for Space Vision 21 is the first Ministerial Conference on Space Applications for Development in Asia and the Pacific, held in Beijing from 19 to 24 September 1994. That Conference launched the Regional Space Applications Programme for Sustainable Development (RESAP), which has contributed in a financially modest but scientifically significant way to the progress described below.

8. The Beijing Declaration on Space Technology Applications for Environmentally Sound and Sustainable Development in Asia and the Pacific adopted the Strategy for Regional Cooperation in Space Applications for Sustainable Development, endorsed the Action Plan on Space Applications for Sustainable Development in Asia and the Pacific, and called upon all members and associate members of ESCAP to participate actively in RESAP.

9. The impetus for space technology development and applications has come from national space and information technology programmes as mutually reinforced and supported by outcomes from the Beijing Conference. The initial efforts in RESAP were exploratory in nature towards building national capacity and regional capability without establishing a general institutional framework. Pilot projects for space technology applications were organized at demonstration level to establish their potential benefits for developmental planning and management. The results have been significant and commendable.

1. Progress in  spacecraft, payloads, and launch vehicles 

10. Since the Beijing Conference, significant regional developments include hyperspectral remote sensing systems, multi-purpose satellite series, mini- and micro-satellites, various sizes of rockets to launch single or multiple spacecraft into polar and geostationary orbits, as well as X-ray astronomy, infra-red telescopes and magnetosphere space environment missions.

2. Progress in applying space technologies to benefit Asia and the Pacific 

11. Similarly, progress in applying space technologies to benefit inhabitants of the region hasbeen impressive. Examples include the application of digital technology with capabilities for videoconferencing and high-speed data transmissions using communication satellites and the installation of meteorological satellite receivers and related computer equipment for non-meteorological applications. Other examples are the integration of data from remote sensing satellites with geographic information systems (GIS) and satellite-based positioning systems (SPS) for resource exploration, infrastructure development and management, environmental monitoring and natural disaster mitigation, geodetic controls and digital mapping at different scales, and regional-level projects for forestry assessments.

C. Near-term prospects

12. Members and non-members of ESCAP have already indicated their intention to conduct various near-term (1999-2004) projects for space technology development and applications in one or more of the categories identified below. Some projects would continue to be conducted as part of national programmes for sustainable development. Other projects would continue jointly under the aegis of four RESAP regional working groups on (a) satellite communication applications, (b) remote sensing, GIS and satellite-based positioning, (c) meteorological satellite applications and natural hazards monitoring and (d) space sciences and technology applications. Such joint projects can advance operational or commercial activities that directly benefit the countries in the region. The second phase of RESAP, RESAP II, would identify a more structured Minimum Common Programme in prioritized areas of direct relevance to the region, viz. environmental and natural resource management, food security, capacity-building, human resource development and education, poverty alleviation, natural disaster reduction, health care and hygiene, and sustainable development planning.

13. Some space activities, however, would be conducted outside the framework of RESAP II. Regional initiatives, such as the Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agency Forum and the Asia-Pacific Multilateral Cooperation in Space Technology and Applications serve as venues for exchange of information. In the field of satellite communication coordination, there are regional bodies such as the Asia-Pacific Satellite Communications Council (APSCC). Other activities are global programmes, such as the COSPAS-SARSAT search and rescue satellite system, ARGOS data telemetry and geo-positioning services, and direct readout from operational satellites.

1. Atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial observations using space platforms

(a)  Atmospheric observations

14. Meteorological satellites of major space-faring countries operating in the region are expected to continue their acquisition of atmospheric and oceanic data used in climate forecasts. A satellite named Climatsat, dedicated to climate-related applications, is under development.

15. The Feng Yung-1C and its successors are expected to continue as polar and geostationary meteorological satellites providing sources of operational meteorological data. The INSAT-3 series of geostationary operational satellites is expected to carry atmospheric sounder instruments in addition to the suite carried on the INSAT-2 series. A new, multifunctional transport satellite (MTSAT) series will provide new communication and navigational services for aircraft and enhanced weather data for users throughout the region.

16. European meteorological operational platforms, carrying a complement of instruments similar to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) series, will provide morning global coverage, and the NOAA series will provide afternoon global coverage. Both series will continue the direct readout of imaging and sounding instruments. The Meteor and GOMS series may also continue to provide additional polar and geostationary sources of operational satellite meteorology data.

(b)  Oceanic observations

(c) Terrestrial observations

18. The Landsat-7 carries the enhanced thematic mapper plus (ETM+) that replicates the capabilities of the highly successful thematic mapper instruments on Landsat-4 and 5. The ETM+ also includes new features that will make it a more versatile and efficient instrument for global change studies, land-cover monitoring and assessment, and large area mapping. IRS-P5 is expected to carry a 2.5-m resolution panchromatic camera for cartographic applications. SPOT-5 will carry 5-m resolution panchromatic plus 10-m resolution multispectral instruments.

19. The Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) mission will carry an AVNIR-II radiometer and phased array L-band synthetic aperture radar (PALSAR) instruments for disaster monitoring and other applications. ALOS will be the first in a series of satellites that will provide geologic mapping and hazard monitoring. An Asian regional satellite (SAR) initiative has also been proposed to cover a very broad range of applications, including emergency disaster communication and hazard mitigation. A LightSAR mission is expected to carry an advanced L-band SAR for understanding and mitigating natural and humanmade hazards.

20. The ALOS mission will also carry a 2.5-m resolution panchromatic remote-sensing instrument for stereo mapping for detailed observation of environmental changes occurring over land. The Orbview-3 mission is expected to offer 1-m panchromatic and 4-m multispectral digital imagery, and Orbview-4 will also offer hyperspectral digital imagery. IKONOS-2 will carry 0.8-m panchromatic and 4-m multispectral instruments. Quickbird-1 and 2 will also carry instruments of the same type and specifications.

21. The Resource 21 low Earth orbit constellation of four satellites will provide farmers and agribusiness with crop management, fertility, pest and disease information to increase crop yields and profitability. The panchromatic, 2-m resolution digital imagery from SPIN-2 will assist in forestry, timber and other resource management. The IRS-P6 mission is planned to have a steerable 5.8-m multispectral camera and other sensors.

2. Satellite-based communications, broadcasting, and navigation/positioning systems

(a) Communication and broadcasting satellites

22. The series of communication and broadcasting satellites are expected to continue providing services, such as direct-to-home television, maritime and aeronautical telephony, global mobile personal communications, rural telephony through very small aperture terminals, two-way text and data messaging, and fleet broadcast communications. These types of satellites operated in the region by ESCAP members include the following: Agila, Apstar, Asiasat, Bonum, Euroasiasat, Indostar, INSAT, Intersputnik, JCSat, Koreasat, L-Star, MEASAT, M2A, Optus, Palapa, Panamsat, ST-1, Superbird, TDRS-Pacific, Telkom, Thaicom and Turksat. Other satellites operated by non-members of ESCAP include the Arabsat, Eutelsat, Inmarsat, Intelsat and Thuraya series.

(b) Satellite-based navigation/positioning

23. The series of SPS satellites serving the region will include the NAVSTAR and GLONASS constellations. These SPS satellites will spawn advanced applications that require very precise location and tracking, such as precision mapping and surveying, or tracking oil spills and hazardous icebergs. In addition, the same satellites will provide advanced services for aircraft and vessel navigation, and moving-map displays for motor vehicles. Other countries in the region have expressed interest in developing similar positioning satellite platforms.

24. The first generation of a worldwide Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS-1) is expected to support air navigation and traffic management. GNSS-1 will include several regional satellite-based augmentation systems with associated ground stations. The MTSAT-based satellite augmentation system will cover Asia and the Pacific. Similar systems will cover North America and Europe. These regional satellite-based augmentation systems will satisfy all civil aviation requirements for different phases of flight (en route, terminal area, and non-precision and precision landings).

3. Space science and solar-terrestrial applications

(a) Space science applications

25. A mission named MUSES-C, aimed at collecting and returning to Earth an asteroid sample, is being planned. The International Gamma Ray Astrophysics Laboratory and Spectrum-X-Gamma missions will also be conducted by countries in the region.

26. With the construction of the International Space Station now under way, another door has been opened not only to long-duration examination of the space environment but also to research and manufacturing activities under microgravity conditions. Following the Mir Space Station's historic mission, the International Space Station will establish a more advanced platform to conduct space science and technology experiments. If the International Space Station is privatized and commercially operated, as has been proposed, it could be the forerunner of other ventures to use space for industrial and entrepreneurial endeavours. However, smaller versions of space stations may be built to conduct space science research and development.

(b) Solar-terrestrial applications

27. Some countries in the region are investigating the concept of solar power from space. If solar power satellites are developed that can deliver large-scale microwave power to users on Earth at a price competitive with other energy sources, this would be attractive to countries in the region. The Solar Power System 2000 project would involve electrical power generation from solar cells on board satellites in low, equatorial orbits for transmission by microwave to specially designed power-receiving antennas in countries lying in the equatorial zone.

28. One country in the region plans to conduct the ASTRO-E X-ray astronomy mission that will carry X-ray telescopes to perform very fine and wide-band X-ray spectroscopy of cosmic, high-temperature plasmas.

4. Satellite-based education and training

(a) Distance learning and teaching

29. Some members of the South-East Asian Ministers of Education Organization have implemented open learning and distance education programmes using various communication media to increase the opportunities and access for education/training programmes in their countries. One method is via satellite-based education and training in disciplinary open learning centres located in various countries in the South-East Asian subregion. Countries in other parts of Asia and the Pacific could expand their use of satellite-based education and training via PEACESAT and other similar satellites operated for the public benefit.

30. The region will continue to use and expand satellite-based technologies for distance learning and teaching projects. Some examples include the project on technology in learning and teaching to provide in-service training in technology to primary and secondary teachers and another project to provide workers in the State railway system with real-time, interactive and up-to-date training.

(c) Engineering research and development

31. At least nine countries are pursuing small-scale experimental missions that have the objectives of human resource and industry development. These include Badr-B, FedSat, TiungSat, TMSat and the KITSAT series.

D. Effects of space technology on the region

33. The space technology projects that can produce tangible benefits for the inhabitants of the region need greater flexibility and funding support within the framework of RESAP II. The barriers to space development and space-related activities described in other documents, unless removed or lowered, could adversely affect the growth of space technology within the region. Innovative technologies from research teams in the region must be given opportunities for testing in space with maximum independence from administrative and political restraints. Such quests would ensure that RESAP II will further advance the expertise and benefits to the region from space technology development and applications.

34. The full scope of space technology development and applications that may emerge in the region beyond 2005 is not clear. However, the factors discussed below may offer some insight into what may happen. These trends in space technology development and applications appear more evolutionary than revolutionary. Some changes seem to reflect a growing interdependence between the computing, information and communication industries and between their space-based and ground-based operations.

1. Opening access to space technology development and applications 

35. Some countries are trying to increase their ability to develop and apply space technology by partnering with institutions more advanced in satellite manufacturing and operations. These countries have sought to gain engineering expertise and experience in building and operating satellites from partners located outside the region. Some countries in the region are trying to collaborate in space technology, for example in building payloads and small satellites. In several cases, countries are trying both approaches.

36. Many countries in the region possess a certain amount of expertise and experience in space technology, but very few have the financial or human resources individually to bring space technology applications to their highest level. A systematic, collaborative approach would appear to offer the best opportunity for the efficient and equitable development of space technology applications in the region as a whole.

37. Consideration should continue to be given to the establishment of a regional space agency for Asia and the Pacific, on a long-term basis, as one of the possible regional cooperative mechanisms. This concept should be approached in a step-by-step manner, as experience develops in the execution of substantive space technology projects at the regional level. A study led by ESCAP could facilitate this process. This should also take into account the role of the private sector in regional cooperation.

38. As an example of regional space cooperation, ministers from 10 European countries met in Belgium in July 1973 and laid down the principles for creating what has since become the European Space Agency. Now with 14 members and one associate member, the Agency helped to resolve issues of uneven capabilities and poor coordination of space development in Europe. The step proved to be a valuable stimulus to European industry growth and, indeed, to the concepts of a European identity and a common European currency. It can be argued that, without the critical mass and organizing power of the European Space Agency, European aerospace companies would never have been nurtured to the extent that they now lead the world in key technological areas. Without the Agency, it is unlikely that small European economies such as the Netherlands and Norway would have benefited as they have from Europe's overall space capability.

39. Within academia and the space industries of several countries in the region, visionary persons have described some ideas of new space technology that can benefit the inhabitants of the region. Some of these ideas have been offered for many years but they are now being seriously considered in long-range space development planning as having economic and societal value.

2. Increasing the benefits of space technology development and applications

40. In the longer term, countries in the region may focus their space activities on solving some of the environmental and societal issues mentioned earlier. Among these major issues are how to mitigate natural disasters, increase food security, promote distance education and learning, and understand the processes behind changes in the global environment.

(a) Natural disasters

41. Countries in the region are extremely vulnerable to the impact of meteorological and geologic hazards and could benefit greatly from concentrated efforts to develop and use space technology resources for better disaster prediction, warnings, and recovery and mitigation activities. Because each country may be exposed to different hazards, it must focus on the space technology applications that most closely relate to its natural hazards. However, regional approaches to apply space technologies for multiple hazards may provide solutions that many countries can usefully share.

42. Current operational meteorological satellites will continue to provide near-real-time data for disaster prediction and warnings to countries in the region. However, a new constellation of satellites devoted to monitoring disasters could also be developed and operated jointly within the region. This would probably happen through the development of small satellites by a consortium of partners from governmental, academic and industrial sectors in the region. Several proposals have been offered for such a constellation and related ground segment. If a constellation of disaster-observing satellites were developed for the region, data from those satellites should be broadcast for the public benefit under a policy of full and open access by all countries in the region.

43. Another effort now under way is the integration of space-based and in situ observations from multiple sensors using high-performance computing and communications within the Pacific Disaster Center located in Hawaii, which now serves the Pacific subregion. Using existing and planned Earth observing satellites from other countries in the region, the Pacific Disaster Center could also protect more regional inhabitants by affiliation with a similar centre located in Asia.

44. The Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre, located at the Asian Institute of Technology in Thailand, has long provided education, training and research in disaster management for countries in the region. It is located with the AIT Geo-Informatics Applications Centre, which receives NOAA and other satellite data in near real time. The Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre and the Geo-Informatics Applications Centre could provide the basis for such an operational disaster management centre in Asia. The Pacific Disaster Center and a similar Asian disaster centre, if established, could become centres of excellence in a network of similar centres around the globe.

45. The Pacific and Asian disaster centres could be connected initially through the Pacific Disaster Management Information Network and ultimately through the Global Disaster Information Network. These two networks could be carried over the high-performance network for research and development on advanced applications and services that is being provided by the Asia-Pacific Advanced Network (APAN). Moreover, advanced communication satellites are likely to provide the backbone for APAN and other regional information infrastructures throughout the world. Such satellites with precisely pointed antennas could simultaneously broadcast warnings from national or regional disaster centres to specific communities threatened by different hazards.

(b)  Food security

46. In the region, floods and droughts have adversely affected food production. The integration of remote sensing, GIS and SPS applications and communication satellites can improve the prediction, warning and mitigation of damage from floods and other natural hazards, thus contributing to food security. Moreover, applications of space technology previously mentioned for natural resource development would address other aspects of food security, including increasing crop yields through more precise irrigation and application of fertilizers and pesticides, decreasing losses through erosion countermeasures and improved flood forecasting systems. Such applications would continue to rely heavily on data from operational Earth observing satellites.

47. A regional counterpart to the Famine Early Warning System of the United States Agency for International Development, which now applies remote sensing and information technology to target populations in Africa at risk of famine from drought, should also be established for Asia and the Pacific using similar technologies. Such a programme could be operated either by a regional institution or by an organization outside the region and would combine experts from space technology applications, agricultural, hydrological and meteorological services.

 (c) Distance Education and Learning

48. Although efforts are under way to use space technology applications to enhance distance learning and education, it is clear that the burgeoning population in Asia and the Pacific cannot be adequately educated and trained by traditional methods and inadequate infrastructure. Space technology offers education ministries and training institutions the possibility of bypassing the barriers of crowded or insufficient classrooms and lack of teachers by allowing more direct-to-student and direct-to-workplace instruction. Such applications would continue to rely heavily on data from operational Earth observing satellites.

49. As very small aperture terminal networks become more widely available, the same satellite-based communication systems that support normal business operations can also help to teach employees new technical knowledge and skills. Distance learning would not be limited to instructional resources within the region but might be supplemented by resources outside the region that could be simultaneously translated and interpreted using advanced multilingual software.

(d) Global change research

50. Although the Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) to harmonize space-based andin situ observations of the Earth will be implemented in the near term, the benefits derived from better understanding the impact of human activities on the Earth's environment will probably be realized in the longer term. Scientists must be better educated and trained to integrate remote sensing, GIS and SPS technologies. They could then analyse the terabytes of Earth observation data from IGOS partners using new, high-performance computing and communication facilities that should also be established in the region.

51. Among five regional networks of the Global Change System for Analysis Research and Training, three are located in Asia and the Pacific - in temperate East Asia, South-East Asia and South Asia - and together comprise the Asia-Pacific Network (APN). APN scientists would benefit greatly from full and open access to Earth observational data at lower cost and higher reliability. With advances in onboard processing of satellite sensor data, it may be possible for APN scientists to integrate data products from several satellites that would use international standards for space data transmission.

E. Longer term approaches

52. Although countries in the region may want to focus their space activities on additional environmental and societal issues, they may also want to consider more closely several long-term approaches that could influence space technology development and applications in the region. These approaches should not be viewed as alternatives to the issues discussed above, but rather as frameworks that could affect the future of space activities in Asia and the Pacific.

1. Integrating national, regional and international space technology applications 

53. Outer space has become the realm of endeavours by individual countries and enterprises, regional entities and international bodies. Countries in the region conduct space activities through their government agencies and commercial enterprises, as well as through their participation in regional entities and international bodies. Such diverse activities can create duplication, but these activities, when properly harmonized, can foster cooperation and collaboration among countries both inside and outside the region.

54. RESAP has provided a valuable service in guiding and facilitating the development and application of space technology for many of its members and associate members. RESAP II should promote, in the near term, more collaboration with greater focus on regional and subregional arrangements as mutually agreed. However, in the longer term, it is envisaged that broader collaboration may coalesce around specific space technology applications. Some examples of this collaboration can be cited briefly as indicators of this trend.

55. One example is the Intelsat consortium, which now comprises more than 140 countries, including more than 30 ESCAP members. Intelsat's role as the premier commercial satellite communication service provider has been supplemented by competing operators from countries in the region. Some operators have formed APSCC, mentioned earlier. As a semi-governmental, regional organization, APSCC aims to promote telecommunication and broadcast services by satellite in the region. In the future, it is expected that APSCC or other such alliances will play an important role in providing advanced satellite communication services.

56. Another example of broader collaboration is the IGOS partnership mentioned earlier. IGOS partners now include the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites, the Sponsors Group for the Global Observing Systems, the International Group of Funding Agencies for Global Change Research, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and the World Climate Research Programme. IGOS unites the major satellite and ground-based systems for global observations of the atmosphere, oceans and land in a framework that delivers maximum benefit and effectiveness in their final use. It is a strategic planning process, involving many partners, that links operational and research programmes as well as data producers and users. As national space agencies in the region move past their initial satellite development stages into ongoing, operational remote sensing activities, it is likely that they will have to associate their activities within the emerging IGOS partnership.

57. From these examples, one can foresee that countries in the region that integrate their national space technology programmes with regional and international efforts will not only augment their human and financial resources but also multiply the benefits to their inhabitants through such partnerships. To achieve this end, it is essential for countries in the region to consider institutional frameworks complementing RESAP II. Any framework should take into account public sector/private sector/academic partnership and long-term cooperation with space technology agencies and institutions in other countries inside and outside the region.

2. Developing  benefits of space technology applications through partnerships among government, academic and industry sectors

58. Major space-faring nations have realized that trying to develop space technology individually has become prohibitively expensive. National space agencies and institutions have been forced to seek partnerships not only with counterparts elsewhere but also with universities and private enterprises in their own and other countries. One reason is the growth of university space research facilities and space industries in many countries. This growth has led to the development and launching of research and operational satellites and, in the case of communication and broadcast satellites, has resulted in the transition from governmental to commercial operation of space missions.

59. In the longer term, this trend is likely to continue in other satellite missions. For example, academic institutions and commercial enterprises could develop satellites that provide Earth observation data in such a timely and reliable fashion that those institutions and enterprises might eventually be given responsibility for operating the meteorological or environmental satellites now operated by governments for the public benefit. Government agencies could then purchase the data that they need in near real time at their own ground stations or through ground stations operated by those institutions or enterprises. Before privatization of space activities in the region can occur, the laws in some countries will have to be suitably modified.

60. Other innovative, longer-term approaches to space technology development and applications may emerge that could benefit countries in the region. ESCAP can facilitate consideration of the institutional, financial and legal arrangements that may best meet the ambitions and needs of the region.

61. Finally, Space Vision 21 urges that national space goals be synthesized with the aspirations of all inhabitants of the region to share in the benefits from space technologies. Only through equitably sharing the burden of developing and applying space technologies through effective cooperative mechanisms can countries within and beyond the region share equally in the benefits from those technologies.