MPDD Seminar Series on "Population Changes, Intergenerational Transfers and Macroeconomy: The National Transfer Account Approach" by Dr. Amonthep Chawla, Thailand Development Research Institute
Thailand as well as several countries in Asia has experienced demographic transition from high fertility and mortality rates to currently low fertility and mortality rates. Rapid decline in fertility leads to a smaller share of the young population. During this period of demographic transition, the number of working ages increases more rapidly than the growth rate of the whole population. An increase in the share of working age population leads to an increase in total production and higher economic growth rates. However, this favorable effect of population change is diminishing. Continual decline in fertility and mortality rates inevitably lead to population aging. It is controversial that smaller share of working age population and a larger share of the elderly could deter economic growth. The research based on the National Transfer Account (NTA) framework shows that economic growth could be sustained despite population aging if there is a prudent policy that encourages people to accumulate capital to finance old-age consumption.
Delivering this seminar was Dr. Amonthep Chawla (Ph.D. University of Hawaii) is a Research Fellow at the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) and a Visiting Lecturer at Thammasat University. His research on macroeconomics and population economics has been published in numerous working papers and journals such as Asian Population Studies, Asia-Pacific Population Journal and National Bureau of Economic Research. His recent research on labor market has been implemented by the Ministry of Labor of Thailand. Dr. Chawla is an expert on National Transfer Accounts and has been actively involved as an instructor in a number of training workshops held in Asia, Africa and the United States.