PART 1: REGIONAL PROSPECTS FOR SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT: AN OVERVIEW

I. INTRODUCTION
II.THE SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
III. DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND EMERGING ISSUES IMPACTING ON SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
IV. SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION, SUBREGIONS AND LEVELS OF DEVELOPMENT
V. PROSPECTS FOR SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION
VI. CONCLUSION
References

I. INTRODUCTION

The study on prospects for social development in the region into the twenty-first century focuses on those trends and related issues which are likely to affect social development in the region. It identifies major trends in various development areas which, have generally been positive but, at the same time, were also giving rise to issues with negative consequences for social development and will continue to do so if not addressed. The study points to the uneven nature of social development across the region, emphasizing the need to identify ways in which to enhance social development in those countries whose social sectors are lagging behind in their development. It underlines the need to adopt a multidimensional approach to social development, highlighting six elements which are fundamental for enhancing prospects in the next century.

Despite the identification of shortcomings in social development, it has to be emphasized that progress in the region has been considerable, and in some aspects phenomenal. All the common indicators pertaining to health, education, life expectancy and other aspects of quality of life have shown dramatic improvements, as the figures clearly demonstrate. The situation of women has improved greatly; and there is much more consciousness today of the needs of children than there was a few decades ago. The extension of democracy and people's participation in the region has been a very encouraging development. One important aspect of this has been the growth of social movements in the region, with their ability to convey grass roots situations and views to policy makers and others. Behind most of these developments lie the high levels of economic growth, savings and increases in government expenditure in key areas of social development and in per capita income. If inadequacies in the scope or extent of all these developments can be identified in various parts of the region, that fact should not overshadow the significant progress already achieved. Perhaps the greatest achievement will prove to be the region's commitment to implementing the Manila Declaration on the Agenda for Action on Social Development in the ESCAP Region adopted by Governments of the Asia-Pacific region in 1994.

The analysis of the social development trends and prospects for the region as a whole, serves two purposes: first, to identify the major trends occurring in the Asia-Pacific region and those issues flowing from them which are likely to have a significant impact on the region's social development prospects into the twenty-first century; and, second, to identify those policy options which are likely to be the most appropriate responses to these prevailing issues. In addressing these two purposes, it is recognized that the Asia-Pacific region is the most diverse region in the world, making it very difficult to make general pronouncements on either past or future developments. There exists a high degree of variation within the region, between subregions, nations, and specific areas and populations within nations. In development terms, the region is one of great contrasts. Alongside some of the greatest concentrations of wealth in the world are also some of the world's greatest concentrations of poverty. Possessing some of the most outstanding examples of human capability development, the region reflects also some very low levels of capability development. Furthermore, while including some of the most powerful and influential nations in the world, the region is also home to some of the least powerful, least developed and most marginalized countries. It is clear, therefore, that trends and prospects for social development in the region will vary from country to country. Despite this, however, the trends identified are selected for their wide relevance.

The study also recognizes the complexity of the development process. It is an interactive process in which economic trends interact with social trends, and socio-economic trends with political trends. While acknowledging this complexity, the study argues that there are still advantages in identifying the major development issues confronting the region and discussing the policy implications of these issues. It also acknowledges from the outset that contemporary development in any nation or region is affected by the current realities of an increasingly interdependent world. The Asia-Pacific region is not immune from developments in any other region of the world. Moreover, the characteristics of increasing globalization in a range of fields will, as they unfold, affect development trends, prospects and policy options in this part of the world.

One widely held view of the Asia-Pacific region, either overall or in terms especially of East and South-East Asia, is that it has emerged as one of the key development centres of the world. There are those who see the twenty-first century as belonging to Asia; while others see Asia, Europe and North America as the three centres of world development in the future. Whatever the scenario presented, however, Asia emerges as having a dominant role in the new century, although in many people's minds a dominant Asia means East and South-East Asia. This perceived dominance will be clearly beneficial to the region, while also bestowing on it a major leadership responsibility, which could be as significant in the social development area as in others.

The impact of globalization will not, however, be uniform. One view of globalization generally, and of economic globalization in particular, is that it is encompassing only a proportion of the world. The World Bank's 1997 World Development Report, for example, states that about half of the developing world's people are left out of current globalization developments. That does not mean, however, that these people remain unaffected. It is more common to believe that such people are likely to be disadvantaged by current trends. The same World Bank report presents a common opinion when it states that globalization will benefit those nations which are well prepared to participate in it, while it will constitute a threat "to weak or capriciously governed states". Accordingly, it is realistic to assume that globalization will add to the difficulties of the region's least developed states and populations, at least until globalization is regulated to reflect principles of equity and justice.

One aspect of globalization is the range of regional and subregional organizational developments in all regions. It may well be that such developments are a crucial step in ensuring that globalization is beneficial for all. In the Asia-Pacific region, the achievements to date of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), South Pacific Commission (SPC) and Forum, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and other groupings indicate that such developments possess considerable potential for ensuring the development of both the poorer nations in each subregion and of the subregions as a whole. It would seem to be very important to strengthen this aspect of the region's development as a highly significant context of national development.

II. THE SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT PROCESS

Social development refers to the development of society as a whole, with economic, political, cultural, legal and social dimensions all having a crucial role to play within a holistic and integrated model of development. This is a people-centered understanding of development, in that the well-being of people is assured only when all aspects of society are conducive to their well-being. Although this understanding of social development is reflected in the World Summit for Social Development, a range of United Nations publications and by most non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the field, it has not proved easy to reflect this understanding in planning and practice.

Social development is a multi-dimensional process, requiring action in the economic, political, social, cultural and legal fields; however, it is not easy to undertake the necessary initiatives in all fields and in a coordinated manner; and it is not at all uncommon for some fields, and particularly the economic field, to be emphasized over the others, often to the detriment of overall social development. Social development is recognized also as a multilevel activity, with complementary action often required at the international, state and local community levels. Coordinating activities across this range of levels is, however, extremely difficult. Finally, the importance of a range of actors contributing to social development is acknowledged , especially the state and its range of institutions, but also including the market system, civil society and the people themselves as direct participants. While it is often recognized that each of these actors needs to play their respective roles, defining their role boundaries and achieving coordination between them is not easy.

This widely-accepted approach to social development has some specific requirements. These are:

(i) The empowerment of people to enable them to participate in the range of organizations constituting civil society and thus in decision-making in the wider society;

(ii) The development of a range of institutions, across all levels and within all dimensions of society, which can enable and underpin development;

(iii) A political or state system which is participatory, accountable and enlightened;

(iv) A range of initiatives which will ensure infrastructure development, adequate social services and income-generation opportunities - in total, an environment which enables development.

The basic understanding of social development is developmental; that is to say, it envisions action being taken which will result in the development within a society of an environment which is conducive to all members of that society developing and utilizing their potential and enjoying a satisfying life. In reality, however, most social development programmes are designed to rectify a particular situation by targeting a specific need being experienced by a particular population. Both approaches are necessary and they are not mutually exclusive. It is both possible and necessary to engage in long-term planning, policy formulation and programme implementation which will contribute to future situations so that needs are minimized; while also undertaking short-term initiatives to address current needs. The allocation of resources between these two levels of need will, however, never be an easy political decision.

III. DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND EMERGING ISSUES IMPACTING ON SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

The section highlights twelve priority social development trends in the Asia-Pacific region and a number of issues that flow from them. Many of the issues identified have the potential to enhance or weaken social development. Currently, however, they are having an adverse influence on the social development of a significant number of countries in the region and on the lives of millions of people. Accordingly, they are issues which must be addressed if the prospects for social development into the twenty-first century are to be enhanced. The precise nature of the issues, the current response to them and the potential for an enhanced response vary from country to country. However, for a majority of countries they are either relevant now or likely to be in the foreseeable future. In any case, these are all regional priority issues requiring a concerted regional response in addition to action taken by individual states.

A. Demographic trends

Four priority issues are identified within the prevailing demographic trends. These issues are also discussed in further detail in Part B of this publication.

1. Increase in the absolute numbers and proportions of older persons

The populations of Asia and the Pacific are ageing rapidly as fertility rates fall and life expectancy increases. By 2020, the population of older persons will almost double to 603 million, representing 13.1 per cent of the total population of the region.

This significant demographic change carries with it many implications. Older persons tend to make greater demands on social and health services, and to experience varying degrees of disability, for which society needs to make arrangements. With the changes in family formation referred to below, more older persons will present with specific transport, communications, housing and living environment needs, and their well-being will be dependent to a large extent on those needs being met. Income security throughout a longer retirement period presents enormous financial difficulties for older persons themselves and for the state.

For the well-being of older persons and for the social development of society, it will become increasingly important that states respond appropriately to the issues brought about by ageing.

2. The urbanization trend

The future of this region, as of others, will be primarily an urban future. Although only 37 per cent of the population in this region in 1997 was residing in cities, the urbanization trend is strongly entrenched in many countries and likely to emerge in others. The urban population is growing at 2.9 per cent, compared with 1.3 per cent for the regional population as a whole. While several different patterns in urbanization are identified in the chapter on population in Part B, "urbanization in developing countries is inevitable" (Skeldon, 1997), and countries in the region will need to develop a response to this trend.

Urbanization is to a significant degree a consequence of internal rural to urban migration. Many studies reveal that this migration can have a significant impact on economic and social life in rural areas, while giving rise to urban situations which can be deleterious to social well-being. For example, depriving rural populations of their youth and their better educated people will affect rural life and render the social development of rural areas all the more difficult. At the same time, a large influx into urban areas creates slum and settlement situations with less than acceptable living conditions. Overall and in the longer term, however, migration tends to alleviate poverty in rural areas, while "the majority of migrants to the cities are generally absorbed into the economic and social fabric of the cities" (Skeldon, 1997). In any case, such migration is impossible to prevent, so that policies are needed to respond to its consequences.

The development of megacities in the region, and often of smaller cities as well, brings many consequences requiring a policy response. The levels of pollution in many urban areas are too high; the traffic problems which emerge from excessive pressure on transport facilities exacts a high economic and social toll; the pressure on the service delivery systems, especially of health and education, can be very difficult to handle; the pressure on public facilities, such as water, sanitation and power, can be considerable; and, at the social level, there is invariably an increase in crimes of violence, drug abuse, prostitution and the incidence of sexually transmitted diseases and HIV/AIDS.

Urbanization, especially if experienced at a high level, presents all sections of society with major challenges and governments with important policy options. One obvious and extremely important policy response to this situation is to ensure that the development of rural areas is at a level that the great majority of rural residents can find viable options for their development within the rural context. Policies pertaining to agriculture, rural industrialization and rural social service delivery are three critical areas for action in rural development. To the extent, however, that a degree of urbanization is both inevitable and desirable, it will be important that governments give considerable attention to all aspects of urban planning. Skeldon found that, in general terms, "Policies that are most likely to be effective are those that accept existing trends rather than those that seek to reverse them" and agrees with many others when he emphasizes giving the migrants the opportunities to develop creative responses to their needs - "to help themselves in terms of generating employment, organizing transportation, arranging security and building homes" (Skeldon, 1997). In broader terms, however, urban planning will always need to be an enterprise which draws together the best efforts of governments, the private sector, civil society and local communities.

3. Family formation trends

As the chapter on population details, significant changes have been occurring in family formation, driven by changes in marriage patterns, fertility rates, family size, population mobility and the changing wider context of family life. Trends indicate that there will be: more people who will never marry, more single adult families as divorce and separation rates rise, more older persons living alone, and, overall, smaller households. A significant proportion of these smaller households will also either be without the support of extended families or physically quite removed from extended family members.

There are many social implications of this trend. Compared with their traditional counterpart, the modern household has fewer members to generate income and to provide mutual physical and emotional support. Consequently, the support of young children and older persons presents more difficulties than in the past, while the normal adult might find it more difficult to withstand the increasing stress of modern life. These situations can aggravate poverty, result in poorer physical and mental health levels and encourage the use of drugs of abuse.

However, there is no necessity for changes in family formation to have deleterious effects if the trends are appreciated early and appropriate policy responses undertaken. For example, housing policies integrated with appropriate community formation and family support strategies may be very important. The provision of child care facilities to allow parents, and especially a single parent, to work will be increasingly important. Home-based or domiciliary services will assist many older persons to remain alone in their homes and thus reduce the cost burden of institutional care. Many policy responses to issues arising from the recent trends in family formation have been identified and introduced.

4. Migration

Migration is a major and growing trend in this region. In the 1980s, internal migration accounted for 63.6 per cent of urban growth in the region, which represented a total movement of 11.4 million persons. In many countries, however, the dominant form of internal migration was rural to rural movement, the reasons for which are varied. Some of this movement was due to inadequate employment opportunities in some parts of a country, forcing people to migrate in search of work; some of it was the result of the relocation of people due to government policy, such as the construction of dams or political decisions to relocate persons; and some of it a result of either natural disasters or slow environmental degradation rendering some areas unable to support life. While internal migration is often circular and part of an emerging pattern of life, this is acceptable only if it is undertaken as a matter of choice. Obliging people to internally migrate in order to sustain a livelihood is not an ideal development situation for individuals, families, communities or the state. Moreover, acceptance of migration as a developmental strategy should be accompanied by the provision of a range of services and facilities responding to emerging needs.

International migration is also a significant trend in the region (Hugo,1997). It is a trend which has considerable potential for enhancing social development in the region, and its support is part of the current emphasis on the importance of freeing up markets, including through facilitating the mobility of labour. Unless carefully regulated, however, international migration can have adverse effects on all parties, despite its obvious benefits through providing employment and generating remittances. International migration takes different forms, and the social development impact will depend in part on the specific characteristics of any movement.

The different development levels across the region have given rise to a large migrant worker movement. Although this is ostensibly a government-regulated movement, it is a movement which can readily be manipulated and exploited, in ways that are not in the best interests of the workers. It is also a movement in which levels of preparation in the countries of origin, and protection in the countries of destination, are often inadequate. Women in particular are highly vulnerable. Further, it may not be appropriate for any country to place too much reliance on external labour markets for the employment of their people, as recent events in East and South-East Asian economies confirm. There are many adverse effects of migration (such as separation of families and lack of protection) to the extent that, while it may be an important employment option for many people in the region, it should not be the only or main option available to them.

The global labour market invariably gives rise to a parallel undocumented movement of workers, in which participants are far less protected than are the documented migrants. There is a clear conflict in some countries between a rising demand for labour and a fear of allowing large-scale immigration to meet that demand. This conflict must be resolved, in the interests of both those large numbers of people who are forced into illegal migration and of the social integration of the societies within which they work. If we are not to see repetitions of what has too often occurred in the past, governments, singly and together, will need to address issues of labour policies so as to remove any dependency on illegal migration.

A further aspect of international migration is the movement of refugees (political and economic) across national borders. There have been many such movements in this region in the past, and it is widely predicted that they will continue to be a feature of international migration in the foreseeable future. The right to asylum is an important right and must be preserved. At the same time, the burden of exile can fall very heavily on people; and the demands on governments to balance the many competing interests in such situations make this a policy area of considerable complexity and sensitivity. If such movements continue into the next century, as seems likely, more thought will need to be given to ways of evolving appropriate international responses to them within the region.

B. Economic trends

The study presents two key economic issues as having major significance for social development prospects in the region into the twenty-first century. Both of them namely, employment and poverty, have been priority issues in social development since the 1990s, and have received wide discussion; and both will remain of crucial importance for the region into the next century.

1. Employment trends

The provision of gainful employment for all people in the region is as complex as it is important. Employment expansion has been identified as a key element in any strategy to eradicate poverty and further social progress; at the same time, the many aspects of employment and unemployment make it a difficult situation about which to generalize.

Reports on employment trends in the region discuss the situation in terms of various categories of countries. Commonly the situations in the advanced industrialized economies, the newly industrialized economies, the transition economies, the South Asian countries and the Pacific island developing economies are presented as contrasting situations. However, the focus here is on the most prevalent employment trends covering much of the region and having a significant social impact. The response of governments and others to these specific trends, within the context of overall employment generation, will be influential in improving social development prospects into the next century.

(a) Structure of the employment market

The employment market is a balance between several sectors. What has emerged from trends to date is that significant problems, including unemployment and poverty, emerge when any of the significant sectors is ignored or the balance between the sectors is not addressed.

(i) Employment issues relating to the rural sector, including both the agricultural and non-agricultural aspects is important in the region. The majority of people in the region reside in rural areas, and it is appropriate that their access to gainful employment be rural-based. However, this employment needs to be diverse in nature. Already it is estimated that 36 per cent of the rural labour force in Asia is employed in non-farm activities, and this proportion will need to grow in the future to accommodate an increasing shortage of land and the seasonal nature of many agricultural activities. For rural employment to increase, more attention must be given in many countries to the availability of credit and other financial services, and to an adequate infrastructure. Finally, many people will remain in rural areas only if services and facilities generally are of an acceptable quality, and particularly education and health services.

(ii) The formal employment sector is a second sector that has received a lot of attention from governments as the main context for job growth, and it is appropriate that it should. However, it is also clear that much of this growth is dependent on large-scale investment and trade, not readily available in some countries, while it also has a strong tendency to emphasize technology over labour. In countries where labour-intensive employment is the requirement, it is unrealistic to depend exclusively on the formal sector for employment generation.

(iii) The third significant sector is the informal employment sector. This has been of importance in the region for a long time and is increasing in its importance. For example, the sector generated over 60 per cent of urban employment in the 1980s in many countries of Asia. This sector is often defined in terms of its low technological requirements, labour intensity, small scale of operations, common family base, ease of entry and insecure low returns. While these characteristics can make it ideal for employment generation, given "its capacity to create an almost infinite variety and number of activities", it can sometimes render it a less than ideal environment for securing a livelihood.

The relationship between the formal and informal sectors is an important issue. With an increase in contracting-out by the formal sector, the informal sector increases in importance, especially when the formal sector is unable to generate a sufficient number of employment positions. A second important and related issue is the extent to which the institutions of the state should support and regulate the informal sector. While there are clearly advantages in leaving it flexible, the poor working conditions and exploitation which often exist in the sector are not consistent with social development goals. This is an important issue, although not one that is easy to resolve.

The balance between the various sectors is emerging as a very important issue. The pressure on the available resources in many rural areas is responsible for significant underemployment; there are signs that unemployment is growing in the informal sector as it is in places expected to absorb too many people, indicating that there may be limits to the absorptive capacity of this sector; and the formal sector in some countries is failing to generate the number of jobs required. All sectors will require careful attention to maximize the capacity of each sector to meet employment needs while ensuring that excessive dependence on any one sector does not generate other problems.

(b) Employment trends for specific population groups

While the availability of gainful employment in general terms is a concern, there is much evidence that several categories of persons are effectively discriminated against in the job market, therefore experiencing above average rates of unemployment.

(i) Youth unemployment is a serious problem in much of the region, with the level being as high as four times above the levels for adults. As the chapter on youth in Part B explains, there are serious social implications of youth unemployment, given the significance of this stage of personal development, particularly in more modern societies.

(ii) Unemployment is also usually higher among women than men. While women's employment rates have been gradually improving, this has not been happening in some subregions. In fact, in South and Central Asia, women's employment rates have been falling from what was already a low figure. Not only are women more likely to be unemployed but they tend also to be paid less than men and to be concentrated in low productivity jobs in the rural and informal sectors. When they do obtain employment in the formal sector, little allowance tends to be made for their continuing family and home responsibilities.

(iii) As shown in the chapter on persons with disabilities, there is a limited extent to which the large population with various forms of disability in this region have access to employment. This continuing trend is often based on a misunderstanding of the nature of various disabilities in relation to individuals' capabilities in the employment market.

(iv) Finally, it should be noted that reports on the small but very important population of indigenous minorities in the region present high levels of unemployment - often as high as 80-90 per cent. This is a reflection of the social exclusion experienced by these people, with serious ramifications for their economic and political participation levels.

It is important that employment policies consider the employment needs of all population sectors. The labour market is prone to discriminate in a range of ways, and a range of policy options is available to counter this trend. It is also important for all countries to ensure that there is equity of access to employment for all people, as well as comparable working conditions.

(c) Child labour

The phenomenon of child labour continues to be a worrisome issue in much of the region. It is estimated that some 80 million children between 5 and 14 years of age are employed in the region, making this by far the largest child labour population in the world. The fact that these children are deprived of schooling is compounded by the slave-like practices and health-destroying conditions to which many children are subjected. This practice is an unacceptable one and strong action by governments is called for.

(d) Health and safety at the workplace

Finally, the health and safety conditions under which all persons are employed continue to require the attention of all parties. Even in the advanced industrialized countries there remain some concerns in this area, while in the newly industrialized countries the poor working conditions have resulted in high accident rates. Social development prospects for all people depend to a significant degree on the quality of their employment conditions, given the hours spent at the workplace. It is clear, however, that quality of employment relates closely to recognition of workers' basic right of freedom of association and collective bargaining. Not only does such recognition result in improved levels of workers' conditions and protection, but it tends also to enhance enterprise performance (ILO, 1997).

2. Poverty trends

Poverty was identified in the 1990s as the priority concern for the region and globally, when it was realized that it was not going to simply fade away, even in countries with considerable economic growth. Although the nature and dimensions of poverty vary greatly from country to country, it is clear that large segments of the region's population have not benefited from the overall improvements in development levels and often continue to fall behind in both relative and absolute terms. Moreover, the number of people in poverty in the region continues to rise with the growing population, despite significant improvement in the situation in many countries (World Bank, 1997b). Indeed this region contains the bulk of the world's poverty, concentrated mainly in South Asia though most developing and developed countries in the region have their share of poverty. This makes poverty the most serious problem still confronting the region.

Poverty is, and must be recognized as being, a complex phenomenon. Many people are income poor, in that they do not have the income necessary to sustain life at an acceptable level; others are capability poor, in that their capacities have not been developed to the level that would enable them to participate in economic, social and political life and so provide for themselves. Poverty trends are also uneven. Most of the poverty in the region is rural-based, although urban poverty is increasing. More women than men live in poverty; and it is increasingly a condition found among older persons. Social divisions of a class, caste, ethnic or racial nature are often exacerbated by differing poverty levels; and recently arrived immigrants tend to be poorer than others.

The complexity of poverty has several implications. It means, firstly, that the approach to poverty eradication usually has to be targeted at particular populations, and this involves identifying the specific causes of their poverty. However, the relationship of poverty to issues of equity, employment trends, biases in development policies, migration and urbanization, and life stages indicate the importance of addressing poverty by identifying its root causes and developing policies in relation to them. While this approach is crucial in the long-term for eradicating poverty, the complexity of poverty means also that it is usually extremely difficult to address and continues to confront even advanced economies today. Often it represents entrenched poverty which is unlikely to disappear until significant structural and systemic changes occur in the wider environment. An important poverty issue is, therefore, the provision of opportunities for participation and support to those who find themselves the victims of social changes beyond their control.

Poverty is closely related to inequality, especially relative poverty, and this raises the important link between growth and equity, which is discussed in the companion volume to the present publication, i.e., the 1998 Economic and Social Survey. That analysis shows that the picture around the region is quite mixed in relation to equality, and therefore equity. It shows that some countries have improved, a few deteriorated, while in others there is no clear trend. What is clear is that both levels of economic growth and changes in inequality affect absolute poverty. Hence an important policy response to poverty is a more egalitarian distribution of the fruits of growth. What is not clear is that growth in itself will automatically have an impact on inequality or poverty.

There is a range of policy options for responding to poverty, as implied above. Chapter 6 of the UNDP's 1997 Human Development Report discusses a number of policies, but identifies "six essential actions" which merit repetition here. These are: (i) Empower individuals, households and communities; (ii) Strengthen gender equality; (iii) Accelerate pro-poor growth in countries whose economies are growing only slowly, stagnating or declining; (iv) Improve the management of globalization; (v) Ensure an active state; and (vi) Take special actions for special situations. The selection of these six areas as priority areas for action is a significant reflection of the need for social development to be a multilevel enterprise, and for action to combat poverty to range from the international level down to the local community.

On current trends, it is difficult to be optimistic that the extent of poverty in the region will decline, and certainly not as quickly as it should, given the region's resource base and the stated commitment to its eradication. It is all too easy both to pass over those population groups most affected by poverty and to take poverty for granted, and every effort must be made to ensure that the stated intention to eradicate it from the region continues to have the highest priority.

C. Social trends

Three social trends are highlighted here as having significant implications for social development prospects in the region: gender disparity, capability-building and social integration.

1. Gender disparity

There continues to be throughout much of the region a strong trend towards disparity between men and women, reflected in many aspects of development. This continuing trend is apparent in the Gender-Related Development Index (GDI) created by UNDP, which uses life expectancy, educational attainment and income measures to calculate the index. Of the 146 countries for which the GDI was calculated in 1997, nine countries of this region appear in the top 50, eight are among the bottom 46 countries, and a further eight are in the bottom half of the middle 50 countries. This reveals a very unhealthy state of gender disparity in the region. The UNDP has also developed a Gender Empowerment Measure, in which seven countries of the region appear in the top 50 countries and 12 are among the bottom 44 countries. There is a clear association between these two measures.

Negative stereotypes regarding girls' education, female capabilities and the nature of paid and unpaid work carried out by women in society continue to have a significant impact on the social development prospects of women in the region. The Fourth World Conference on Women noted that women continue to compete in what is a "gender-biased environment", and "the differences between women's and men's achievements are still not recognized as the consequences of socially-constructed gender roles rather than immutable biological differences".

Female literacy rates in South Asia remained in 1995 at 36.6 per cent - the lowest in the world with minimum improvement since 1990 - compared to 62.9 per cent for men. Similarly, gross enrolment rates in schooling are also low and 16 percentage points lower than the male rate (42.5 to 58.6 per cent in 1993). At the tertiary level, the gender gap widened between 1990 and 1993.

There is a clear need in much of the region to address gender disparity. On current trends it will require several decades for women to reach the current social development levels that men currently enjoy, and several more to reach acceptable levels. This slow rate of improvement must be accelerated.

At the heart of the problem is a failure by decision-makers in national and donor agencies, who are predominantly men, to appreciate that many of the advances in development do not automatically benefit women. Often women and men occupy different worlds. Women carry major responsibilities for households, operate in different economies and are relegated to a different socio-cultural status than men. High levels of national income will ultimately benefit women, but a significant improvement in their situation requires action in three crucial areas. It requires more understanding of the nature and impact of gender inequality, more pro-women initiatives in many areas of development, and the enabling of women to play a more vital role in decision-making at all levels.

2. Capability building

It is well recognized that capability building, or Human Resources Development (HRD), is a central component of social development, and that the provision of basic services in education and health are key. In many respects, capability building is victim to a vicious circle. While, for example, poverty eradication is fundamental to capability building, so too is capability building central to poverty eradication. Yet the key to the vicious circle lies to a large degree in a concerted effort to improve capability building.

It is estimated that as many as 1.6 billion persons in this region are capability poor, that is, lacking some basic capabilities to function (UNDP, 1996). This is not surprising when the region's indicators of various aspects of health and education are studied. While there have been commendable improvements in many places, there remains both tremendous variation and many unacceptable situations, especially in South Asia and the region's least developed countries. Primary health care and formal primary school education remain beyond the reach of a large population, the implications of which are manifested in poverty, malnutrition, illiteracy and morbidity rates.

One clear reason for the low levels of capability development in a number of countries is the low proportion of government budgets devoted to the social services. The trend in the countries where low levels of capability development exist is for social service expenditure to be low and static or declining. By comparison, the more developed countries of the region moved into industrialization with comparatively high human resources development (HRD) levels, devoted significant proportions of government budgets to the social services, and generally placed a strong emphasis on HRD as a key element in their economic development.

The current trend across much of the region, with economic liberalization, is to give less priority to governments' involvement in the basic social services, and this trend is not favourable to future social development prospects. At the same time, international donors show a clear reluctance to allocate aid monies to this area. It would seem apparent from past development experience, from logic and from principles of equity that it is incumbent on governments and aid agencies to place a stronger emphasis on capability building as a crucial strategy for enhancing social development prospects.

3. Social integration

Social integration is identified in the Agenda for Action on Social Development in the ESCAP region and by the World Summit for Social Development as a core concern for social development. Essentially social integration refers to the enabling of all social groups to live together in productive and cooperative harmony. At the centre of a lack of social integration are ethnic conflict and communal strife, the alienation and marginalization of some groups, continuing poverty, migration and displacement, changes in family and community support systems, an increase in the occurrence of fundamentalist trends, and increased violence and crime in society.

It is difficult to assess the trends in social integration in the region, and therefore to predict prospects for the future. Certainly there are those who fear that it may become the most important issue of the first quarter of the next century (Bardhan, 1997). Moreover, many of the factors which contribute to a weakening of social integration, referred to above, are significant trends in this region, so that one might argue that the stage is set for social integration to emerge as a most important issue. Hence policies to address migration, poverty, changes in family formation and issues of equity relating to ethnic diversity will at the same time be addressing social integration.

In addition to addressing root causes, however, it is also important to address directly and quickly any signs of social disharmony. Much is understood today about the use of reconciliation in situations of inter-group conflict, dispute resolution strategies and building harmonious community relations. Countries experiencing signs of social disharmony need to ensure that they have the expertise available to move immediately into action to prevent further deterioration in the situation.

Above all, every effort must be exerted to avoid the outbreak of civil wars. Nothing is likely to set back the process of social development as much as the type of major internal conflict which a few countries in the region have been experiencing. Similarly, the social development prospects of some very significant sub-populations (such as some indigenous minorities) have been adversely affected to a significant degree and over a long period by the absence of communal harmony between them and the rest of society.

D. Political trends

The political issue of development was a touchy issue during the long period in which state rights were sacrosanct. While that situation remains to a degree, the importance of the political dimension of social development is well recognized. The political dimension tended also to be downplayed during the period when economic liberalization sought to reduce the role of the state and promote that of the market place. While that economic paradigm remains dominant, there are strong signs that the role of the state is again being re-assessed, with one major emphasis being on its facilitating role.

Throughout the region, the respective roles of the state, market system, civil society and community are being re-evaluated. There is a strong possibility that a new understanding of the necessary balance between these four actors in social development will emerge. The World Bank's 1997 World Development Report identifies four developments which have given impetus to this re-evaluation: (i) The collapse of command-and-control economies in the former Soviet Union and Central and East Asia; (ii) The fiscal crisis of the welfare state in most of the established industrialized countries; (iii) The important role of the state in the "miracle" economies of East Asia; and (iv) The collapse of states and the explosion in humanitarian emergencies in several parts of the world. To these four one might now add the 1997-98 financial crisis in a number of Asian countries and the implications of that crisis for the development of state and private institutions.

Appreciation of what constitute the pillars of political development have emerged from a range of experiences and seem now to be widely endorsed. They are: (i) A representative and participatory political system, decentralized wherever possible; (ii) State institutional arrangements that foster responsiveness, accountability and the rule of law; (iii) An active civil society which reflects the diversity in society; and (iv) A competent, professional and accountable bureaucracy. Many countries in the region have suffered in their social development from inadequate levels of development in one or more of these areas. However, while the importance of all four dimensions of the state are generally recognized, countries still have perhaps a long way to go in their understanding of how to develop these four levels. What is crucial to future social development prospects, however, is a commitment on the part of states to change any aspects of state development which are acknowledged to be deficient.

Once the pillars of the state are well formed, the need to establish roles for each with appropriate limits, along with ways of building collaboration between the four pillars, will emerge as a major challenge. In recent decades, one trend has been to give more responsibility and freedom to the market place, such as the focus on privatization. While this focus has been an important development in many ways, it has also become clear that there are serious limitations to the role of the market in many aspects of service delivery, and especially where the poorer and more vulnerable groups in society are concerned. There has also been an increasing emphasis on civil society which, for many people, means mainly a greater emphasis on the NGO sector. It may well be that many NGOs are too dependent on, and so too exclusively accountable to, national governments and donor agencies to fulfill the key roles of civil society; while "many have religious, ethnic, racial or cultural identities that can fuel social tensions" (Polidano and Hulme, 1997). Hence, while NGOs have an important role to play in social development, they are not always representative of the types of associational civil society which good governance requires. Civil society needs to be able to contribute to bringing the state closer to the people, reducing corruption at all levels and developing the state's capability of achieving redistributive policies.

By contrast with the private and non-government sectors, for some time the functioning of political systems, state institutions and the bureaucracy were widely complained about but largely taken for granted. Today the phenomenon of significant corruption in all three areas is seen as symptomatic of distortions in the policy and regulatory regimes where institutions are weak (Pradhan, 1997). An appreciation of the potential of all three areas to play a more constructive role in social development has led to a new impetus for reform and a number of policy proposals. The World Bank, in its 1997 World Development Report, proposes a two-part strategy: "focus the state's activities to match its capability; and over time look for ways to improve the state's capabilities by reinvigorating public institutions". The Report also suggests five fundamental tasks for the state: establishing a foundation of law; creating a non-distortionary policy environment; investing in basic social services and infrastructure; protecting the vulnerable; and protecting the environment. The Report acknowledges, however, that "reform of state institutions is long, difficult and politically sensitive".

The political trends are clear: more democratic or representative systems, with participation at various levels, although many comment that participation has not progressed as far as have moves towards democracy; more accountability in the bureaucracy, with appointments on merit and for specific periods with review; and building institutions that are more open in their operations, more independent of the political system and more geared to advancing the public interest, and as professional and well-equipped as the business sector, financial markets, crime syndicates and other systems that they are asked to supervise or combat.

Current political trends provide considerable ground for optimism, providing always that they can be sustained. It is especially significant that "good governance" is now recognized as essential if social development is to progress, although it is also acknowledged that the achievement of good governance is an extremely complex and difficult policy objective.

E. Environmental trends

The importance for social development of environmental degradation in the region cannot be ignored. Current tends are disturbing and, if they continue, will have a major impact on social development prospects.

Environmental degradation is important in terms of its direct impact on the quality of people's lives. When people have to live in environments with a virtually continuous haze, refrain from swimming in lakes and rivers because of pollution, are denied recreational access to forests because of their depletion and are seldom able to enjoy the full richness of nature, they are very much the poorer. Considerable care will be required over the next few decades to ensure that the degradation of the region's natural environment does not progress so far that recovery will be virtually impossible. Yet the danger of this happening is very real.

Environmental degradation has an impact on social development in many ways. It increases the pressures on rural areas; it is responsible for a proportion of migration; it aggravates poverty in many areas; it has a significant impact on health; and it deprives poorer people of a range of products, from herbs for medicinal purposes, to supplementary food supplies, to the use of seeds, bamboos and bark for the manufacture of a range of goods. Some aspects of environmental degradation will also have an impact on rainfall and water conservation, and thus on water supply and the quality of the water that is available. The 1996 World Water Forum saw a water crisis looming. The management of the environment is very important to social development.

At the same time, it must be acknowledged that poverty levels and demographic trends can also be significant causes of environmental degradation. There is an interaction between many aspects of development and the environment which cannot be ignored.

Finally, the danger of global changes in the environment for the livelihoods and well-being of vast numbers of people in the region is very real. It may well be that our mismanagement of the environment will alter temperatures, rain patterns and sea levels, and even small changes in any of these aspects of the environment could have a disastrous impact on social development prospects.

F. Scientific and technological trends

The societies of the Asian and Pacific region, live in an era of extremely rapid scientific and technological changes and in which trends have the potential both to promote and to harm the cause of social development.

For example, the advances in communications have great potential to contribute to the lives of people with disabilities, older persons and those who are geographically isolated, but can also raise people's aspirations to unrealistic levels and contribute to dissatisfaction. Technological advances in transport systems could revolutionize movement within our largest cities, across dangerous waters and in and out of remote areas, but they can also cause gridlock in cities and contribute significantly to environmental degradation. Scientific advances in the health field may bring relief to the many millions who currently suffer from various diseases or from the currently accepted consequences of ageing, but they can also add greatly to the cost of health services if every advance in medicine is made available to all people in need of it. The use of computers may enable many more people to engage in gainful employment from within the home, with many implications for family and community life. There can be no doubt that choices which are made in relation to technological and scientific advances could make a major contribution to the well-being of the people of this region.

However, many people will share in the benefits of modern technology only if they are educated and trained to use it. Similarly, many more people will benefit from it only if steps are taken in their country to acquire the right technology and adapt it as required for their use; and countries can do this only if monopolies and a misuse of intellectual property provisions are guarded against and the cost factor makes its introduction reasonable.

Finally, and most importantly, the dangers of the development and use of technology being tied to profits, used to exploit people, used against people or introduced regardless of its potential to cause harm must be guarded against. It is known, for example, that many manufacturing processes use toxic substances that are injurious to health, that some manufacturing processes have long-term impacts on the health of workers, that some forms of transport do not conform with normal safety precautions, and that the use of technology in war has ever more frightening consequences for civilians and soldiers alike.

It is important that the governments of the region are able to access, utilize and regulate the use of the technological dimension of development. However, technology should always be made subject to people's needs and best interests, and the onus for doing so lies with the state, working in collaboration with industry and the people through the organs of civil society.

IV. SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION AND SUBREGIONS AND LEVELS OF DEVELOPMENT

In the previous section, some key trends and issues in social development in the region have been identified. This section seeks to relate at least some of these trends to specific parts of, or countries within, the region, partly to illuminate further the understanding of development trends, and partly to encourage that priority be given to specific areas within the region.

It has been customary to divide the Asia-Pacific region into subregions, for example, East Asia, Central Asia, Pacific, South Asia, South-East Asia and West Asia. These divisions are made for various reasons. First, each subregion is made up of a number of countries, and their geographical proximity, and ability or potential therefore to collaborate, is or could be a major factor in their development. Second, to some degree the countries in each subregion share some characteristics in common, such as context but also perhaps some cultural characteristics.

In considering prospects for social development, some significant subregional characteristics can be identified. For example, most of the developing countries of the Pacific share the characteristics of being small island states with small populations and limited potential for economic diversification; the countries of East and South-East Asia share the current and potential benefits of being part of a major centre of global power and influence; and, finally, the Central Asian republics share the characteristic of being economies in transition, with all that entails. The potential for subregional co-operation and the existence of shared characteristics make it important to stress these subregional links and the desirability of strengthening them further in the future.

However, it should also be acknowledged that social development trends do not correlate so much with subregional location as with each country's distinctive development process and stage. Identifying linkages between the realities of any social development trends and the overall development situations to be found in countries across the region may enable these countries to understand and respond better to the social development challenges which will confront them into the twenty-first century.

In terms of the social development situations which confront this region, it seems possible and useful to identify five categories of countries, or of social development situations, based on the situations and trends in a variety of social development indicators.

A. Least developed countries

The category of countries of gravest concern is that of least developed countries in the region. These are countries whose situations are still characterized by a significant state of underdevelopment. Thirteen countries in this region are listed as least developed countries - five in the Pacific, four in South Asia, three in South-East Asia and one in West Asia. These least developed countries do not have a common location factor but share a particular stage in their development.

The region's least developed countries are in danger of becoming more marginalized in an era of increasing globalization. They present comparatively few investment prospects to outside investors and have little in the way of domestic savings; they tend also to be by-passed by the dwindling flow of official development aid; their people are too impoverished to take advantage of labour migration opportunities to any significant degree; and these countries lack the influence necessary to further their development through external relations.

It is imperative that the social development prospects of these countries are enhanced, for their level of underdevelopment is unacceptable in a region with so much potential, represents a lack of development of some of the region's resources from which all could benefit, and could ultimately represent a threat to the stability of the region. The achievement of that goal will require action at various levels. The subregions within which these countries lie need to incorporate these countries into all subregional developments. The region needs to ensure that these countries receive priority attention whenever possible and the full support of regional bodies. The international community needs to ensure that such policies as debt forgiveness, the nature of investment and aid flows are commensurate with needs and appropriate to the presenting context. Without a concerted effort to change existing social development trends, it would seem inevitable that the situations of these least developed countries will improve little in the next few decades.

B. Emerging and newly industrialized countries

The majority of developing countries in the region stand between the least developed countries and the advanced industrialized economies. That is to say, to varying degrees they have embarked upon the process of diversifying their economies, engaging in significant levels of trade, providing their people with a range of social services and strengthening their state institutions.

Some of the less successful countries still present major areas of need, such as an inadequately developed set of economic institutions and range of employment opportunities, low levels of capability development within some sections of the population, or inadequate levels of people's participation in development at significant levels. Such patterns of uneven development are particularly characteristic of some South Asian countries.

Then there are many other countries in the region which have made and are making significant progress in their development, in relation to all dimensions of social development. The social development challenges which these countries confront are often ones that are to a significant degree problems stemming from success. Development in these countries is frequently associated with increasing levels of urbanization, which can be so fast that tremendous pressure is placed on urban services and infrastructure. Attention to rural development and clear policies around urban development are then important policy areas. The growth in mechanized transport and in manufacturing can pose problems in relation to pollution of the environment and high road accident rates, so that both developments require careful regulation. The very success of economic development can result in a highly materialistic lifestyle, along with a discarding of traditional values. Such cultural trends can have serious consequences, and the cultural dimension of development is too often overlooked as unimportant. The pace of development can very easily lead to a distortion in the distribution of the fruits of development and to the eroding of important traditional support structures without adequate replacements. Youth's specific needs may be overlooked; gender equity issues may be ignored; the speed of changes in family formation can undermine some traditional caring systems without replacing them; and access to drugs, sexual liberation, less social supervision of deviant behaviour and so on can have some negative outcomes. A more deliberate attempt to appreciate the full complexity of social development and to work for balanced development can do much to minimize such problems.

The reality is that it is all too easy for governments and others to hide behind the economic indicators of success, forgetting that social development is a multidimensional process, and that a disregard for any of these dimensions will carry a price, especially in a society experiencing rapid social change. For this reason, the prospects of social development into the twenty-first century for the many countries in this category will depend to a significant degree on governments and others appreciating the importance of addressing all aspects of development, preferably at the pro-active or developmental level.

C. Advanced industrialized economies

It has been increasingly recognized that social development is not confined to underdeveloped or developing countries. Social development is an ongoing process in all countries, whatever their level of development. The so-called developed countries, or advanced industrialized economies of the region face some significant trends. Inequality has been increasing, emanating in part from the increasing focus on the market place with its inherent competitive and individualistic nature. There has been a noticeable increase in the level of insecurity, relating in part to higher levels of unemployment, changes in the nature of employer-employee relationships and other consequences of structural adjustment. This insecurity may be one of the reasons for rising apprehension regarding immigrants, who are increasingly seen as constituting a threat, and this has important consequences for social integration. The combination of economic recession and changes in official attitudes towards the welfare state have had significant consequences for human well-being. Economic liberalization, reflected among other developments in the contracting out of services, introduction of "user pays" systems, substitution of superannuation for state income support schemes, along with the tendencies to balance budgets by reducing expenditure on social services, have impacted very differently on different sections of society, but generally have brought about an increase in poverty, insecurity and social exclusion at least in the short-term.

Furthermore, the erosion of the sense of community, the impersonal nature of much of modern suburbia, the high levels of divorce and of people never marrying, the high suicide rates and incidence of psychiatric disorder, the extent of homelessness, and the plight of many rural people as indications that the social development field requires serious attention in these countries. At the same time, it is true that these countries are well aware of prevailing trends, have the resources to respond, and are putting considerable effort into finding solutions.

D. Economies in transition

Although some of the economies in transition are also least developed countries, it has been recognized that their status as transitional societies constitutes an additional dimension to their social development. Most of these states are confronted with the task of dismantling economic, social and political structures, some of which are still strongly favoured by sections of the society. At the same time, they face the need to introduce new social, economic and political systems which are largely alien to people's experience. Both processes are associated with a high degree of difficulty, a significant level of pain, and the danger that some social and economic indicators will experience falling levels during this period of transition, which is in fact happening in many Central Asian countries. Indeed, the reality is that the transition has imposed a much heavier social toll than was anticipated by either policy makers or the population. That inevitably has led to high levels of uncertainty, disillusionment and social unrest.

These transitional economies face extremely difficult challenges in their social development. The economic challenges of reducing high levels of unemployment without losing momentum for market-oriented transformation and of building economic institutional support structures are immense. The need to build civil society in countries where such had virtually disappeared will require considerable time and effort. Building communities different from those of the past, and avoiding the dangers of a highly individualistic, competitive and exploitative society which breeds crime, ruthlessness, greed and corruption, present major challenges which are largely beyond the boundaries of these societies' past development experience.

These societies will require a high level of support as they engage with the transition of their communities into global systems.

E. Small island states

Added difficulties confront the region's small island states as they engage in their development, and it is not surprising that a number of them rank among the least developed countries. They are often isolated from other countries and from major centres of economic activity; made up of a large number of very small islands, the topography of which presents real difficulties, and with small populations, whose significance in world affairs is usually perceived as minimal. Not only do these countries face the prospects of being marginalized within global development, but their development situations are significantly different from those of other countries. Their potential to diversify their economic activities, and hence their exports, is greatly limited; their potential to provide a land-based existence for their people as populations continue to grow is limited; their danger of being overwhelmed by tourism, having their few resources exploited by others, and perhaps even of being swamped by rising sea levels is great; and their difficulty of preserving their culture and way of life against the inroads of other cultures is much greater than in most countries.

Not only are the barriers to development confronting such countries peculiar to their unique situation, but the range of responses would seem to be limited. Certainly there are many ways in which services can be brought to remote places, thus improving the level of capability development. There is also potential for exploiting the surrounding seas, provided that these seas are preserved for their livelihood to a greater extent than is currently the case. Even with these developments, the extent to which alternative sources of income-generation can be created is limited. One obvious answer, therefore, is to permit these states to interact with the economies of other states, largely through free movement of people between their own societies and selected others. A few countries have been making this possible for some time now, and there is no doubt that other countries could do likewise with benefit to many of these small island states.

The numbers of people residing in these countries may be very small; however, this should not mean that their very special needs are overlooked.

V. PROSPECTS FOR SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION

Major social development issues which are relevant to much of the region have been identified; and if the policy responses to those issues are appropriate and adequate, the social development prospects for the people of the region will be greatly enhanced. The trends identified also reflect significant weaknesses or shortcomings in the prevailing social development profile of the region, and will adversely affect future prospects if not addressed.

Yet it is also the case that, in relation to all of the major priority issues, there exists a large body of knowledge and experience, within and outside the region, for guiding any nation's policy response to these issues. While that is not to suggest that any of the identified issues is easy to tackle, at least many of the basic strategies required have been identified.

In this concluding section, it is important to identify the basic elements of social development which are fundamental to addressing the major issues identified, and any others needing to be addressed. It is important to do this because the social development process needs to underpin the development of policies and programmes in any specific field. Without such underpinning, actions taken in relation to specific issues of concern can have only limited success. The prospects for social development in this region depend, therefore, not only on how the nations of the region act in relation to the specific major issues confronting the region, but also on how they engage with the social development of their nations as a whole.

There are six key elements of social development identified here. Any tendency to neglect any one of the six will weaken social development, and thereby the capacity of that nation to address any trends which are deleterious to its people's well-being.

A. Strengthening local foundations for social development

To a significant degree, all social development rests ultimately on the development of the strengths of people in communities. Whatever governments and others undertake, if the people are not prepared to engage in the development of themselves, their communities and their environments, little can be achieved. People are the most important resource in social development, and their participation in development is therefore central.

People's development occurs mainly in two ways. First, it is important that people's capabilities are developed. This occurs informally within the family and peer groups, and through role models in the local community and beyond. The media plays an increasingly important role in non-formal capability development, but so too can many community education activities. However, capability development requires also a formal level. While primary education lays the foundations, and so needs to be available to all people and tuned to their particular situations, it will often need to be supplemented by further education or vocational training. Education and training will achieve little, however, if people do not have the health levels required. Adequate nutrition, protection from disease and an adequate level of public health are, therefore, fundamental to capability development.

Second, people's development needs to occur within healthy and active communities, involving participation with others in a range of people's organizations. This is, of course, also part of the learning or capability development process - learning by doing. In addition, however, it both empowers the individual and establishes the values on which all societies depend, both of which roles are extremely important. Finally, it is through working together at the community level that many needs are met - economic, social, cultural and spiritual needs.

In many areas, communities and people's organizations are naturally-occurring processes. However, in situations of extreme poverty and marginalization, or of displacement and the establishment of artificial communities, or where the capacity to work in communities has been in any sense significantly eroded, it will often be necessary to employ catalysts or facilitators to re-establish the process. This is an extremely valuable role undertaken by many NGOs and by the personnel employed in comprehensive social development programmes connected with poverty eradication and other goals. It is important that governments ensure that this level of social development is appropriate to presenting needs.

B. Strengthening civil society

The space between people in communities and the state needs to be occupied by a strong and healthy civil society, for the sake of both the people and the state. Civil society, being the range of non-government associations in which people across the state come together to fulfil certain needs, pursue certain goals and participate actively in the affairs of the state, is an essential component of social development. To take but a few examples of its role: civil society mediates the people's concerns to the state, so that government in its work can reflect the realities of people's situations and their concerns; civil society operates as a collective pressure on industry and the bureaucracy to ensure that they function in the best interests of the people; civil society reflects and upholds the cultural values on which the functioning of society depends; and, as a final example, civil society is the stage on which the different ethnic, religious and cultural groups that make up a society learn to understand and live in harmony with each other.

Civil society has a crucial role to play. However, it will play that role only if it emanates from strong local communities, thus reflecting all people's concerns and not just those of some elites, and, secondly, only if it is enabled by the state to play a central and constructive role in society. It is ultimately up to the state structures to incorporate a place for civil society, and hence the people, within the system of governance.

C. Strengthening state institutions

A state is a nation state only if it exists as the national context for the lives of the people who comprise the state; and this requires that at the centre of the state there exists a range of institutions possessing certain qualities. These qualities are, essentially, to be accountable to the people, to operate on the principles of justice and to be effective in carrying out their roles.

Four types of state institutions are significantly involved in all aspects of social development.

(i) The political institutions are a key set of institutions, for they govern the state, enacting and overseeing the implementation of the range of policies required for addressing specific issues. The most reliable form of government is representative government, ensuing that government is on behalf of the people and accountable to them.

(ii) Financial and other economic institutions play a highly significant role in determining people's economic, and therefore their social, well-being. The ability of nations to avoid corruption, high inflation, unbalanced trade and biased development in the country's economic life is dependent on the development of sound institutions in this area, as well as on appropriate government policy.

(iii) Legal institutions that can provide justice quickly and equitably play an important role in every well-functioning society. All people require access to the legal system and a sense of confidence that the rule of law and the principles of justice will prevail.

(iv) Finally, the civil service is an institution of great importance. It needs to be professional, efficient, accessible and accountable. Given the common tendency for it to develop in sectors, it requires the capacity to operate across sectoral boundaries to ensure that the cause of integrated social development is served.

The development of sound institutions is dependent on many factors, including political commitment, sound education and training institutions, and a diligent civil society. Without these institutions, social development cannot progress very far, no matter how much energy is expended by NGOs and people's organizations. Their development, then, represents a major role for government.

D. Resource mobilization

All social development requires resources, and many types of resources will continue to be in short supply in much of the region. The basic strategies which are adopted in relation to the mobilization and utilization of resources become, therefore, an extremely important aspect of social development.

There are five main strategies which are commonly identified in relation to resources and which need to be reflected in the social development approach adopted across the region.

(i) The principle of self-reliance is crucial, in that it emphasizes the need to maximize the use of the resources available in any location, both human and other resources.

(ii) Encouraging saving and making effective use of taxation are vital for social development. Saving levels will reflect the levels of self-reliance existing in society and of an understanding of people's role in overall development through generating savings for investment purposes.

(iii) Appropriate budgeting, and management of those budgets, by governments is a vital aspect of resource management. It is government budgets which provide the core resources in all essential areas of social development, and the appropriate distribution of these resources across the various areas of activity is central.

(iv) The importance of NGOs and the private sector should never be underestimated. While governments must facilitate developments, the actual developments are more likely to occur in the private sector. Moreover, the relevance of NGOs and the private sector to not only employment generation but to service delivery in a range of areas is now well recognized.

(v) Finally, the importance for much of the region of the various forms of external aid cannot be underestimated. Not only is the overall amount of aid important, but the forms in which it is provided and the priorities to which it is directed are also important.

In all five of these areas the state clearly has important roles to play. However, the identification of these five aspects of resource mobilization also emphasize the importance of the close collaboration between the state, local communities, the private sector and international agencies. All these levels of resource mobilization are crucial if social development is to progress.

E. Intersectoral collaboration

The multidimensional and multi-actor nature of social development makes intersectoral collaboration at two levels very important, for it is this collaboration which will ultimately determine both the directions which social development will take and the extent to which success is achieved.

Intersectoral collaboration is required, firstly, between actors. If the actors engaged in social development are regarded as sectors, intersectoral collaboration between the government, private sector, civil society and community is required. Moreover, given the significance of the international sector in relation to each of the four local sectors, its presence as a fifth sector in the situation should be acknowledged. The development of all five sectors in their own right, as well as the establishment of the balance and collaboration between them appropriate to each situation, are most important.

The second level of intersectoral collaboration is between the sectors of development into which the public and private sectors tend to divide. It is important that activities in the rural and urban sectors, between the economic and social sectors, and between sectors such as health, education, housing, youth affairs, women's affairs, child welfare and a number of others are coordinated. Both the bureaucracy and the professions tend to segmentalize and specialize; and while this is important at one level, it can fragment and ultimately detract from the development process.

F. Targeting of disadvantaged and vulnerable groups

A crucial aspect of social development will always be the targeting of disadvantaged and vulnerable groups. In the foreseeable future, such groups will exist in all societies and while they exist there will always be the strong possibility that their social development needs will go unmet. Therefore, a central requirement to enhance the prospects of social development in societies embracing the needs of all people, is the targeting of population groups or of areas of greatest need. Achieving this goal will go a long way towards eradicating poverty, increasing employment generation and improving social integration, as well as towards addressing other priority trends identified above, many of which can be defined in terms of disadvantaged and vulnerable population groups.

VI. CONCLUSION

The region has moved through the era of generating social development agendas and targets. This task has been accomplished at a very high standard, and there is now widespread consensus as to the fundamental concrete goals of social development, and of the need for a multidimensional, multilevel and multi-actor approach to their achievement. However, the implementation of these agendas, and the achievement of these goals and targets, clearly call for more than their promulgation and formal adoption. A commitment to social development, as it is now understood, is also essential, and prospects for social development in the Asia-Pacific region are not limited by either the presenting situation or a lack of ability or understanding, so much as by inadequate commitment to the task at hand.

A commitment to social development needs to include a focus on the six aspects of social development outlined above. Together, it is the achievements in these six vital areas which establish the foundations of social development in any country.

The prospects for social development in the Asia-Pacific region will depend, therefore, on the extent to which the region is able and willing to address two main tasks, which need to be undertaken together. An ongoing task is that of establishing the foundations for social development. Without significant progress in relation to any of the foundations, the prospects for social development will be impaired. The second task is to address those social development trends which constitute specific challenges to social development which are widespread in this region and therefore significant to the well-being of large numbers of people. While many more limited aspects of social development are also important, it is suggested that addressing the twelve aspects of social development identified will enhance the prospects for social development in the future in a major way.

All of the issues identified in the paper as priority ones for the future prospects of social development require an active role on the part of national governments. However, both the nature of the issues and of social development itself mean that governments need to work in close partnership with the other sectors. The ability of sectors to tackle effectively the tasks ahead of them vary from country to country, and some sectors in some countries in the region will require considerable regional and international support. Social development in these situations may well depend ultimately on the ability of regional and international structures to ensure that their priorities are in accordance with the priority needs identified across the region.

The various subregional associations can do much to support their weaker members. A look at the Human Development Index scores and the per capita income figures of the ASEAN countries underscores the potential and need of subregional support. The international community, represented by the donor and the United Nations agencies, has a major role in the region, and the nature of their financial, technical and moral support will be very important in determining social development prospects. Other dimensions of the international field, such as the international NGOs and social movements, also have the potential to provide useful support.

Finally, ESCAP itself has a major role to play. It should always be fully aware of the important trends and issues, disseminating analytical information about them and ensuring that nations share with each other the evaluations of their policy responses. ESCAP can thus contribute significantly to a raising of knowledge levels pertaining to social development across the region. Part of this task is also to be an advocate for social development - to promote the development of caring societies among nations, to encourage nations to act individually and collectively and to support them in determining the appropriate types of action called for. The many ways in which ESCAP can implement these goals have been set out in detail in a recent ESCAP Secretariat paper on regional and international support measures (ESCAP, 1997c). The strategies are well tried. What is crucial, however, is that ESCAP members and associate members translate their awareness and concern and political will for social development by commiting a substantial part of their scarce resources to ensuring that the very considerable social development achievements in the region will be shared, in the early decades of the twenty-first century, by that third of the population of Asia and the Pacific who can be described as the disadvantaged and vulnerable population groups and individuals of the region.

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