Appendix III

DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

India is following the demographic transition pattern of all developing countries from initial levels of "high birth rate high death rate" to the current intermediate transition stage of "high birth rate low death rate" which leads to high rates of population growth, before graduating to levels of "low birth rate low death rate".

1. Age Composition

1. (i) The age distribution of the population of India is projected to change by 2016, and these changes should determine allocation of resources in policy intervention. The population below 15 years of age (currently 35 percent) is projected to decline to 28 percent by 2016. The population in the age group 15 -59 years (currently 58 percent) is projected to increase to nearly 64 percent by 2016. The age group of 60 plus years is projected to increase from the current levels of 7 percent to nearly 9 percent by 2016.

Table 4: Age Composition as Percentage of the Total Population²

2. Inter-State Differences

2. (i) India is a country of striking demographic diversity. Substantial differences are visible between states in the achievement of basic demographic indices. This has led to significant disparity in current population size and the potential to influence population increases during 1996-2016. There are wide inter-state, male-female and rural-urban disparities in outcomes and impacts. These differences stem largely from poverty, illiteracy, and inadequate access to health and family welfare services, which coexist and reinforce each other. In many parts, the widespread health infrastructure is not responsive.

2. (ii) At least 9 states and union territories in India have already achieved replacement levels of fertility. These are ranked in accordance with their total fertility rates. Additionally, in each of the three tables below, the current population of each state/union territory, the ratio of this population to the country population, the infant mortality rate and the contraceptive prevalence rate if the state / union territory is also indicated:

Table 5 : Population Profile of 9 States and Union Territories of India with TFR less than or equal to 2.1

@ Three year moving average TFR 1995-97 

*Population Projections by Technical Group on Population Projections, 1996 

Source: Registrar General of India

2. (iii) There are 11 states and union territories that have a total fertility rate of more than 2.1 but less than 3.0, ranked accordingly:

Table 6 : Population Profile of 11 States and Union Territories of India with TFR > 2.1 but <3

@ Three year moving average TFR1995-97

 *Population Projections by Technical Group on Population Projections, 1996 

Source: Registrar General of India

2. (iv) However, there are at least 12 states and union territories that have a total fertility rate of over 3.0. These have been listed below:

Table 7: Population Profile of 12 States and Union Territories of India with TFR greater than or equal to 3

@ Three year moving average TFR1995-97 

*Population Projections by Technical Group on Population Projections, 1996 

Source: Registrar General of India

2. (v) The five states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh that currently constitute nearly 44 percent of the total population, are projected to comprise 48 percent of the total population in 2016. in other words, these states alone will contribute and anticipated 55 percent increase during the period 1996-2016. demographic outcomes in these states will determine the timing and size of population at which India achieves population stabilsation.

3. Maternal Mortality

3. (i) with 16% of the world's population, India accounts for over 20% of the world's maternal deaths. The maternal mortality ratio, defined as the number of maternal deathsper 100,000 live births, is incredibly high at 408 per 100,000 live births for the country (GOI 1997), which is unacceptable when compared to current indices elsewhere in Asia.

Table 8 :Maternal Mortality Ratios in Asia³

3. (ii) within India, the inter-state differentials are a matter of concern.

Table 9 :Inter-State Differences within India in Maternal Mortality Ratios⁴

4. Infant Mortality

4. It is estimated that about 7 percent of new-born infants perish within a year. Poor maternal health results in low birth weight and premature babies. Infant and childhood diarrheal diseases, acute respiratory infections and malnutrition contribute to high infant mortality rates. Additionally, in India, across the board (rural or urban areas), there are more female deaths in the age group of 0-14 than elsewheres. Although the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) has decreased from 146 per 1000 births in 1951 to 72 per 1000 births (1997), and the sex differentials are narrowing, again there are wide inter-state differences recorded in 1998, as is clear from Table 4-6. In comparison, we note the infant mortality rates in South Asia and elsewhere: 

Table 10 : Infant Mortality Rates in Asia⁶

5. Sex Ratio

5. (i) India shares a distinctive feature of South Asian and Chinese populations as regards the sex ratio, with a century's old deficit of females. The (female to male) sex ratio has been steadily declining. From 1901 to 1991, the sex ratio has declined from 972 to 927. This is largely attributed to the son preference, discrimination against the girl child leading to lower female literacy, female foeticide, higher fertility and higher mortality levels for females, in all age groups up to 45.

⁴ Registrar General of India.

⁵ UNICEF, The Progress States, 1995.  India Country Office, New Delhi.

⁶ UNFPA, The State of the World Populaiton, 1966, 6 Billion: A Time for Choices.