Problem overview:

     Meeting information requirements: The availability of infrastructure is one indicator of development. In Pakistan, there is a growing demand for electricity and the government is capable of supplying, but is concerned about the impacts on the environment. Weighting between economic efficiency and destruction of the environment is difficult but could not be put aside.

Background:

      Meeting development demands while trying not to exceed the carrying capacity of nature

      The main sources of electricity in Pakistan are hydel power and thermal power with small component of nuclear power. The Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) and Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC) are the main producers involved in power generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. The bulk of the installed generation capacity exists in WAPDA's system which stood at 11,246 MW followed by KESC (1,810 MW). The total installed capacity of thermal power plants in the country is 9,843 MW with the following agency-wise break down:

      WAPDA has been unable to cope with the electricity demand that is growing at an average rate of about 7 percent annually, and load shedding has to be resorted due to energy shortages. The peak capacity shortage often reaches 30 percent of the installed capacity, of which the energy shortage is estimated to be about 3 percent of WAPDA's total yearly generation.

      Due to delay in the commissioning of large hydroelectric projects and ever rising demand of power in the country, 18 private sector power companies with a net capacity of 3,009 MW were allowed installation of their thermal power generating units in Pakistan. Out of these, five projects have commenced operations and are delivering power to their respective grid stations. The remaining 14 projects have achieved their financial close and are under different stages of completion.

      WAPDA has signed power purchase agreements with these private producers of electricity for 3009 MW at rate of 6 cent per kWh, in addition to HUBCO (a private power company with installed capacity 1,292 MW) located Karachi and already in operation. These companies are:

      From the combined installed capacity of 6 thermal power plants stated above, in and around the city of Karachi (population 12 million), the total electricity generated would be about 3,985 MW (46 percent of the present installed capacity of WAPDA and KESC thermal power plants). This production level is much more than the electricity demanded by the city of Karachi.

      Even though all thermal power plants to be located in and around Karachi are expected to individually meet the gaseous emissions standards prescribed by the National Environmental Quality Standards, the combined impact of the gaseous emissions from these power plants have not been adequately considered. This is due to non-existence of (a) ambient air quality standards (compared to the end of the pipe standards) in the area and (b) absence of strategic assessment of air quality at the regional level. The availability of data on the optimum carrying capacity of the air in Karachi would have been very useful to arrive at a decision about the concentrated and/or dispersed location of these thermal power plants in regard to their impact on quality of air in the Karachi Metropolitan region.