Variablesa	Number of studies considered	Statistically significant results
International reserves	12	11
Foreign direct investment	2	2
Share of commercial bank loans in total debt	1	2
Share of concessional loans in total debt	2	2
Real exchange rate	4	2
Trade balance	3	2
Exports	3	2
Terms of trade	3	2
Real interest rates	1	1
Credit growth	7	5
Money multiplier	1	1
Parallel market premium	1	1
Position of exchange rate within the band	1	1
Money demand/supply gap	1	1
Central bank credit to banks	1	1
Money growth	3	2
M2/international reserves	3	3
Inflation	5	5
Real GDP growth or level	9	5
Output gap	1	1
Employment/unemployment	3	2
Change in stock prices	1	1
Fiscal deficit	5	3
Government consumption	1	1
Credit to public sector	3	3
Months spent on exchange rate peg	1	1

Source: Graciela Kaminsky, Saul Lizondo, and Carmen Reinhart, "Leading indicators of currency crises", IMF Staff Papers, vol. 45, No. 1 (March 1998), table A4, p. 45.

Footnotes:

^a Some indicators are not practical as the object of a monitoring exercise, for example, a dummy variable for the presence of crisis elsewhere, or a past foreign exchange market crisis, and have been excluded from the above-shortened list. Other indicators dropped are those with definitions that were not obvious, those indicating political events and those that do not lend themselves easily to quantitative measurement.