| PART TWO:
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL
MONITORING AND SURVEILLANCE
|
CHAPTER IV. MONITORING AND SURVEILLANCE:
THE THEORETICAL UNDERPINNINGS
|
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Survey 2000 contents
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Table IV.2. Performance of early warning indicators
|
Indicator |
Number of crises with available data |
Percentage of crises called
|
|
Real exchange rate
|
72 |
57
|
| Banking crises |
26 |
37
|
| Exports |
72 |
85
|
| Stock prices |
53 |
64
|
| M2/international reserves |
70 |
80
|
| Output |
57 |
77
|
| "Excess" M1 balances |
66 |
61
|
| International reserves |
72 |
75
|
| M2 multiplier |
70 |
73
|
| Domestic credit/GDP |
62 |
56
|
| Real interest rate |
44 |
89
|
| Terms of trade |
58 |
79
|
| Real interest differential |
42 |
86
|
| Imports |
71 |
54
|
| Bank deposits |
69 |
49
|
| Lending rate/deposit rate |
33 |
67 |
|
| |
Average = 68.1
|
Source: Graciela Kaminsky, Saul Lizondo and Carmen Reinhart, "Leading indicators of currency crises", IMF Staff Papers, vol. 45, No. 1 (March 1998), table 1, p. 20.
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