| PART TWO:
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL
MONITORING AND SURVEILLANCE
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CHAPTER IV. MONITORING AND SURVEILLANCE:
THE THEORETICAL UNDERPINNINGS
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Survey 2000 contents
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Table IV.1. Leading indicators of financial crises, 1996
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|
Indonesia |
Malaysia |
Philippines |
Republic of Korea |
Thailand |
Critical region |
| 1. |
Savings rate (% of GDP) |
29
|
37 |
20 |
33 |
33 |
< 24 |
| 2. |
Budget deficit (surplus) (% of GDP) |
(1.2) |
(0.9) |
0 |
0.1 |
(3) |
> 3 |
| 3. |
Current account deficit (% of GDP) |
3.3 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
7.9 |
> 5 |
| 4. |
Foreign debt (% of GDP) |
59.7 |
42.1 |
47.3 |
32.1 |
50.3 |
> 30 |
| 5. |
Short-term debt (% of GDP) |
14.9 |
.. |
9.1 |
10.3 |
20.8 |
> 10 |
| 6. |
Current account deficit less foreign direct investments (% of GDP) |
1.4 |
4 |
0.6 |
5.2 |
6.8 |
> 3 |
| 7. |
Debt service (% of exports) |
36.8 |
8.2 |
13.7 |
7 |
11.5 |
a |
| 8. |
Months of import cover |
5.5 |
3.3 |
2.3 |
1.1 |
5.1 |
a |
Source: Dominick Salvatore, "Could the financial crisis in East Asia have been predicted?", Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 21, No. 3 (May 1999), pp. 341-347.
a The author does not mention a specific critical value.
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