THE FUTURE: INTERNET COMMERCE

By 2001, it is expected that mature versions of Internet commerce applications will depend largely on the use of public key certificates. These will enable secure e-mail communication between most leading-edge organizations, business-to-business electronic trade, and access and payment for Internet consumers. Smart cards will be well established in all industrialized countries for corporate security and secure Internet access. All new personal computers will include smart card readers and support the new computer/smart card interface. Fingerprint and voice recognition technology will be established in high-value, leading-edge applications. Strong cryptography will be widely adopted, supported by the relaxation of export controls on the dispersion of this technology. Increases in processing power will make it possible to use bulk encryption for confidentiality at high speeds over host-to-host links. Leading-edge organizations will have enterprise-wide trust infrastructures based on public key cryptography and digital certificates and trusted third-party agreements will proliferate.

The range and depth of applications will also continue to expand. By 2005, it is expected that most e-mail traffic will be secure at application and network level; most supply chains will trade electronically; some leading-edge organizations will have been reengineered into virtual companies; consumer certificates will be in widespread use; smart cards will be in ubiquitous use worldwide for everything from Internet access and electronic commerce to ticketing in theatres and public transport; client personal computers and network computers will be marketed with built-in fingerprint scanners in the mouse or keyboard; and cryptography and the Internet trust model will be accepted facts. A workable framework for global trust infrastructure will begin to emerge, and trusted third-party licensing and data protection laws will have been harmonized internationally. There will be recognized policy standards for issuing or revoking certificates, and international laws on liability.

The development of the principles governing electronic commerce, as well as the specific technologies and their standards, is being undertaken through inter-organizational cooperation across national borders. However, in markets that depend on intellectual assets and know-how, products that take the market lead usually capture increasingly large shares. Those who have established the international de facto standards win. This is a strong incentive to adopt Internet commerce: countries and firms in the region should be geared from its inception to be at the forefront in order to have an influence on the standards adopted.

Next